Week 1 lines for NFL stir interest

The New York Jets don't have a starting quarterback for next season. But if you think they are going to find Mr. Right to replace Brett Favre, you might want to think about taking the 31/2 points they are getting in their season opener Sept. 13 against the Houston Texans.

The Las Vegas Hilton posted odds for the Week 1 slate Wednesday, a day after the NFL announced its 2009 schedule, giving gamblers their first opportunity to make a bet on a specific game.

"It creates a lot of discussion and interest among the bettors," said Jay Kornegay, the director of race and sports at the Hilton. "It's great for the tourists who are visiting. They can play early, and if they come back for the start of the season, they already have their bets."

The majority of the games have lines between 3 and 7 points. Only one game has a double-digit point spread, as New Orleans is an 11-point home favorite against Detroit, which went winless last season.

Dave Tuley, who writes a sports handicapping column for the Daily Racing Form, has taken a peek at the early numbers and said those who bet now and those who wait until September aren't going to find much difference.

"The NFL is the easiest for oddsmakers to make a line on," Tuley said. "Most of the games are probably going to be within half a point or a point come September. The key is finding the soft spots."

Tuley said he thinks such a soft spot is in the first game of the season when Pittsburgh, the defending Super Bowl champion, hosts Tennessee on Sept. 10. The Steelers are a 6-point favorite, and Tuley said he believes that's too high.

"The Titans are every bit as good as last year, and I thought the number should have been 3," Tuley said. "I think plus-6 on the Titans is the right play."

One line already has moved, as the Cincinnati Bengals are getting support for their Sept. 13 game against the Denver Broncos. The Bengals opened as a 3-point underdog but were bet to 21/2, as bettors obviously aren't enamored with the switch in quarterbacks from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton.

Conversely, the Bears, Cutler's new team, are 3-point road underdogs at Green Bay.

"That number was tough for us to make," Kornegay said of the Bears-Packers game at Lambeau Field. "The Packers didn't have a good record last year, and the Bears won nine games.

"We think the Packers are better than their record, but with the Bears getting Cutler, that changed things."

Kornegay said he and five to six members of his staff discuss each matchup before coming to a consensus in establishing the opening number. Many of the same things that factor into a line during the regular season come into play in April, even though the rosters aren't close to being set.

"It's basically a continuation of last year," Kornegay said of the thought process that goes into making the early line. "We get a group of guys together, and we get their opinions on those numbers. The more guys we get, the stronger the number."

Dave Cokin, a local radio sports talk host and professional handicapper, said no matter what the number the Hilton -- or any other establishment, for that matter -- posts, he's staying away.

"I think it's a silly bet," Cokin said. "My opinion is anyone who bets on games this soon is just taking a stab. It's a real reach in terms of value.

"I'm not a sight-unseen guy. I want as much information as possible. For me to make a bet right now on an NFL game that's being played five months from now would be strictly a guess. And I don't bet guesses."

Yet Cokin understands why the Hilton and other properties would book action on September NFL games in April.

"If the books didn't think they have an edge, they wouldn't do it," he said.

Kornegay said he understands that whatever handle is derived from being able to wager early on Week 1 of the NFL, it's a small percentage compared to what will be bet that week.

"It's more about generating some buzz and getting people to think about the NFL," he said. "The timing is perfect with the release of the schedule."

Contact reporter Steve Carp at scarp@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2913.