Trumping the Legislature?

Can the Donald Trump Effect trump gerrymandering?

That’s one of the questions that came into focus last week, as filing opened and Democrats began executing on their plan to re-take the state Legislature from the infamous Republican Red Tide of 2014.

But what about Trump? The billionaire businessman bragged at the end of last week not only about states won in the race for the Republican nomination, but in energizing more Republicans to come to the polls. (Surely, the Trump-won Nevada caucus is proof of this; total voter turnout last month was almost as much as the 2008 and 2012 caucuses combined.)

Could all these new Trump Republicans — Trumplicans? — upset well-laid Democratic plans to return to power in Carson City after a frustrating session in the minority? The wave of enthusiasm is big, but the seawall of voter-registration in some of the key individual districts of the Legislature is equally large.

In the Assembly, for example, there are a number of seats that Republicans now hold that they have no business holding. These include Republican-turned-Libertarian Assemblyman John Moore’s District 8, Cliven Bundy-defending Assemblywoman Shelley Shelton’s District 10, would-be state senator Victoria Seaman’s District 34, Sharron-Angle-for-Senate backer Assemblyman Brent Jones’ District 35 and departing Assemblywoman Victoria Dooling’s District 41.

Registration is also fairly close in Clark County School District breaker-upper Assemblyman David Gardner’s District 9 and Assemblyman Stephen Silberkraus’ District 29.

Currently, the Assembly has 25 Republicans and 17 Democrats (although some seats are vacant due to resignations). If Democrats were to reverse their losses in just five of those seats — something that appears very possible for a variety of reasons — they’d once again be in control of the Assembly.

Some political moves appear to show that dawning on a number of people. Moore left the Republican party to re-register as a Libertarian. Seaman plans on leaving to run for state Senate, the very seat also being sought by Assemblyman Erv Nelson. And Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, who represents the evenly divided District 4, has filed to run for Congress instead of return to the Assembly.

Up in the state Senate, there aren’t as many seats in play, and the registration differences are much smaller. To win back control from the GOP, Democrats must hold the District 5 seat held by incumbent state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse. (At last count, she enjoyed a 2,500-voter advantage.) They must also win back the District 6 seat, where appointed incumbent Mark Lipparelli is not seeking re-election (there’s a 2,800-Democratic voter advantage in that seat) or the District 15 seat in Reno left open by the resignation of Greg Brower, who took a job with the FBI. That district has a 2,300-Republican voter advantage. Another possibility: Father of the Education Savings Account Scott Hammond’s District 18, where the Republican advantage is 2,600 votes.

But what of Trumpmentum? His boasts about bringing more people into the voting booth may be exaggerated, but they aren’t entirely false. What if more Republicans (or more new Republicans) register and participate between now and Election Day, in anticipation of a Trump victory? That’s the stuff of Democratic nightmares.

On the other hand, what if Trumpmentum (to say nothing of the antics of the 2015 Republican Assembly caucus) reminds Democratic voters of what’s at stake for their party if they lose? Might more Democrats show up to blunt a potential Trump victory? It’s possible the specter of President Trump on the West Front of the Capitol in January might backfire, should he win the nomination.

In fact, I think I see a TV ad script being written right now…

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and co-host of the show “PoliticsNOW,” airing at 5:30 p.m. Sundays on 8NewsNow. Read his blog at SlashPolitics.com, follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.