Wild NFL Week 16, CFP betting recap: ‘Christmas bonanza for bettors’

Wild shootouts, comebacks, backdoor covers and outright upsets.

With apologies to Clark Griswold’s “Jelly of the Month club” subscription in “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation,” sports betting is the gift that keeps on giving all year long.

It took the betting public on another roller-coaster ride over the weekend — from the Seahawks’ 38-37 overtime win over the Rams on Thursday, to the Bears’ miraculous 22-16 comeback victory over the Packers and James Madison’s improbable backdoor cover against Oregon in the College Football Playoff on Saturday, to outright upsets Sunday by the Jaguars over the Broncos and Steelers over the Lions.

Seattle (-2) erased a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to Los Angeles to force overtime, where Sam Darnold found Eric Saubert for the game-winning 2-point conversion after he hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a touchdown to cut the deficit to 37-36. The Seahawks didn’t cover as they became the first NFL team to win on an overtime 2-point conversion and the game was the second-biggest win of the season for customers at Caesars Sportsbook.

“The Rams and Seahawks same game parlays delivered the Christmas bonanza and made it a festive week all around for the bettors after one game,” Caesars head of football Joey Feazel said. “Saturday continued in the same manner with popular teams Eagles and Bears winning and the big comeback in Chicago was the icing on the yule log. A knockout Christmas week in favor of the customers.”

Bear down

The Bears (-1½) pulled within 16-9 on a field goal with 1:59 left, then recovered an onside kick and tied it with 24 seconds left when Caleb Williams lofted a 6-yard touchdown pass to a wide-open Jahdae Walker in the corner of the end zone. In overtime, the Packers turned it over on downs after backup quarterback Malik Willis fumbled the snap on fourth-and-1. Four plays later, Williams threw a 46-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore for the unlikely win.

At about the same time, Oregon appeared to be cruising to a cover as a 20½-point favorite over James Madison, leading 48-13 late in the third quarter before the Dukes stormed back. The Ducks were still covering when James Madison took over at its own 1-yard line trailing 51-26 with 4:22 left. Oregon just couldn’t allow a 99-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes but that’s exactly what it did as the Dukes drove down the field and scored on a 1-yard run by quarterback Alonza Barnett III on fourth-and-goal with 1:05 to go in a 51-34 defeat.

“Those were two huge swings,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “The Bears winning was bad for us, a big swing for the negative. But James Madison scoring that touchdown to cover the spread saved us a lot of money.”

Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in the first round of the CFP, with Alabama (+2½) erasing a 17-0 deficit in a 34-24 win over Oklahoma, Miami (+3) beating Texas A&M and Ole Miss (-16½) whipping Tulane 41-10.

The Eagles (-7) also covered Saturday in a 29-18 win over the Commanders.

“Getting James Madison to cover saved the day,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It looked like Oregon could score 70 but getting Madison to score those late touchdowns and cover was huge.”

NFL Sunday

NFL underdogs went 8-4 ATS with six outright wins Sunday by Pittsburgh (+7½, beat Detroit 29-24), Jacksonville (+3½, beat Broncos 34-20), the Chargers (+1, beat Cowboys 34-17), Titans (+3½, beat Chiefs 26-9), Panthers (+3, beat Buccaneers 23-20) and Patriots (+3½, beat Ravens 28-24).

The Steelers held on for the win when Jared Goff’s touchdown on the final play of the game was negated by an offensive pass-interference penalty on Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions led 10-3 early but fell behind 12-10 on a safety in the third quarter and never led again.

“That Steelers game was probably one of the bigger games I can remember of the year, or at least the second half of the season. Everybody was betting the Lions,” Esposito said. “That game skyrocketed. We opened 6 and got as high as 7½.”

The Raiders lost their ninth straight but rewarded backers by covering as 14-point underdogs in a 23-21 loss to the Texans. The result was good for most books but bad for Boomer’s Sportsbook.

“We actually ended up needing the Texans, which is very rare,” Boomer’s director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “There was a little professional money on the Raiders and it stood up. They finally played a decent game. Hats off to the Raiders for competing.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.