NFL wild-card predictions: Sharp money moves line on Steelers-Texans playoff game
Something has to give in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ wild-card playoff game at home against the Houston Texans on “Monday Night Football.”
The Steelers are riding a 23-game home winning streak on Monday night, but coach Mike Tomlin has lost six straight postseason games.
The Texans are on a nine-game winning streak but searching for their first road win in the playoffs in the franchise’s 24-year history.
Houston is a 3-point favorite and the consensus total is 38, with 38½ available at the South Point, Caesars Sportsbook and STN Sports.
Sharp bettors have backed the Steelers, who were 3½-point underdogs last week.
“Right now, we need Houston. We’ve taken some big bets on Pittsburgh,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “Currently, we’ve taken some real sharp bets on Pittsburgh. But a lot of the sharp money has gone up in smoke this weekend.”
The Steelers won and covered four of their last five games this season, winning the AFC North division title in Week 18 with a 26-24 upset of the Ravens as 4½-point underdogs on “Sunday Night Football.”
“We’ve seen some money on the Steelers. The number has come down from 3 -120 to 3 flat (-110),” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “We have a lot of future book liability on the Steelers, too. The Steelers have been at least 3-point home ‘dogs in a primetime game in back to back weeks. The difference is you get (wideout) DK Metcalf back.
“The Texans are a little challenged offensively but by far the best defensive team in the postseason. That’s why you see the lowest total on the board at 38½.”
Best bets
Professional sports bettors Jeff Whitelaw and Randy McKay made Houston one of their best bets of wild-card weekend.
“Bad matchup for Pittsburgh versus Houston’s No. 1-rated defense,” said McKay (@RR39). “On the other side of the ball, I trust (Texans quarterback C.J.) Stroud and company to have more success against a Pittsburgh defense that has secondary issues to make big plays to win and cover.”
Whitelaw expects the Texans to shut down the Steelers.
“I don’t think Pittsburgh is going to be able to move the ball much on them,” he said. “I think the Texans win this one moderately easily.”
“Dr. Alan” Dumond, who won the Marc Lawrence Playbook Wise Guys contest with a 25-11 record against the spread and took 12th in the Westgate SuperContest, recommends a play on the under, noting that the Texans allow only 17.4 points per game and the Steelers have surrendered only 19 points per game in their past four.
“Despite both sides being involved in high-scoring affairs last week, we expect the defenses to control this game,” he said.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
