Las Vegas gas prices up 25 cents in last month. Is $4 per gallon next?

Las Vegas gas prices are up 25 cents per gallon over the last month, with prices inching higher over the past week.

The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline on Thursday in the Las Vegas Valley was $3.96 per gallon, up nearly 7 percent from the $3.71 a month ago in Southern Nevada, according to AAA data.

The increasing fuel prices are because of issues with oil refineries in Southern California, where Las Vegas gets much of its fuel from, according to Patrick De Haan, lead petroleum analyst for Gas Buddy.

“In the last month what’s causing the increase primarily had to do with the refinery outages (in California) since late July, early August, that we haven’t fully recovered from,” De Haan said.

Gas prices increased 3 cents over the last week, with the price remaining the same over the last day, according to AAA.

The $3.96 price is also higher than on the same day last year, where the average price of fuel was $3.93 per gallon.

Statewide, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas is $3.92 per gallon, up 19 cents from a month ago, 2 cents from a week ago and remaining the same between Wednesday and Thursday, according to AAA data.

“Up until today, Washington was the state with the most expensive gas for several days surpassing California,” said John Treanor, AAA spokesman, in a statement. “Even though West Coast drivers are feeling pain at the pump, prices remain relatively low in the Plains and the South.”

California has the most expensive average price of gas in the country at $4.65 per gallon, followed by Washington ($4.64), Hawaii ($4.48), Oregon ($4.26) and Nevada ($3.92), according to AAA.

Going against seasonal trend

With summer ending, gas prices typically decline; but with the refinery issues, the trend is not being seen in the Las Vegas Valley, De Haan said.

“On the heels of those outages … now we’re in maintenance season, as well,” De Haan said. “In addition, in late August Phillips 66 announced it was going to start the shutdown of its Los Angeles refinery. That refinery produces a little under 10 percent (of fuel) for California, along with Arizona and Las Vegas. A huge part of Nevada’s and Arizona’s supply comes from Southern California.”

The Phillips 66 refinery is leaving Los Angeles due to the further tightening of already stringent regulations of oil refineries, De Haan said. The closure will also result in longer-term implications for Las Vegas, Arizona and California gas prices, De Haan said.

“The guardrails in California are so tight, it’s having a negative impact on oil companies, and they want to move out of the state,” De Haan said.

Is $4 per gallon on horizon?

Prices are moving toward a $4 per gallon average, which hasn’t been seen in the Las Vegas Valley since June 7, 2024, according to De Haan. It’s not likely that the $4 a gallon mark will be hit, as this week is the first that gas stations can begin to use a winter blend of gas, which is easier to produce than summer gasoline and will lead to an increase in supply, De Haan said.

“It’s going to be a close call,” De Haan said. “You could start the transition to winter gasoline starting 48 hours ago, and I’d like to believe that is going to lead you to stop short of the $4 mark.”

With the Phillips 66 refinery set to go fully offline around mid-October, Las Vegas Valley gas prices will be walking a thin line, pending any issues with other refineries in the Golden State, De Haan said.

“You’re going to have almost no breathing room from any issues that may happen in Southern California,” De Haan said. “There’s possibility of a late fall spike, because of the shutdown of that refinery.”

With Las Vegas’ gas prices being heavily influenced by California policies, Gov. Joe Lombardo and Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs last year jointly wrote California Gov. Gavin Newsom a letter asking him to stop legislation related to refinery inventory supplies.

Potential relief from California reliance

Arizona is also in talks with ONEOK, an Oklahoma company, regarding building a 440-mile-long pipeline from El Paso, Texas, to Phoenix. If built, it would be connected to an existing pipeline system across Texas and Oklahoma and would pump unleaded gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into Arizona.

“If more gas is coming into (the West) from the east, it could soften the blow from losing those (California) refineries,” De Haan said. “But that pipeline wouldn’t be operational for at least another couple of years.”

With the governors of Nevada and Arizona already working together to urge California to loosen regulations regarding oil refineries, De Haan he wouldn’t put it out of the question if the two states, along with ONEOK, look to further extend the potential pipeline from Phoenix to Las Vegas.

“It wouldn’t be beyond imagination that they would then extend it from Phoenix to potentially Vegas,” De Haan said. “It wouldn’t be a surprise once that pipeline is built, depending on the level of interest, that it could be extended.”

Lombardo’s office didn’t respond Thursday to a request for comment on if there had been talks about the ONEOK pipeline potentially being extended to Las Vegas, if the Phoenix extension is successful.

Contact Mick Akers at makers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2920. Follow @mickakers on X.