State jobless rate jumps again

Nevada just can't catch a break on the jobs front.

After capturing the top spot nationwide for unemployment in May, the Silver State followed up with still more disheartening news in June, as joblessness hit a record of 14.2 percent, the state Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation said Monday. Las Vegas posted a new high as well, with unemployment jumping to 14.5 percent.

Officially, 193,300 Nevadans, including 141,500 Las Vegans, lack work and are seeking jobs.

And the situation might be worse than it appears: Throw in discouraged workers who've given up the job hunt and underemployed part-timers who would rather work full time , and unemployment runs roughly 75 percent higher than the stated rate, said Bill Anderson, chief economist for the employment department. So, that 14.2 percent? It's probably closer to 23 percent unofficially.

The newest figures launched a fresh round of grandstanding and finger-pointing among Nevada politicians gearing up for November's midterm congressional elections.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid talked up his plans for help, which included the Wall Street reform bill passed last week, proposed tax cuts for small businesses and additional unemployment benefits for the jobless.

"It took many years to dig us into this hole and we're not going to get out of it overnight," Reid said in a statement. "It's why we passed Wall Street reform, why we're working on the small business jobs bill and why we're going to extend unemployment insurance. We have a lot of work to do to restore Nevada's economic vitality, but Nevadans are fighters and I will continue fighting with them until every Nevadan who wants a job has one."

Reid's challenger, former Republican state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, wasn't having any of it, tying 2009's $787 billion federal stimulus package to Reid and noting that the spending couldn't avert unemployment disaster in Nevada.

"Harry Reid likes to brag that 'no one can do more,' and if you're one of the small businesses feeling besieged by this current economic climate or one of the nearly 200,000 Nevadans struggling to find a job, these new unemployment numbers serve as a reminder that the state can't afford six more years of Harry Reid," Angle said in a statement.

And then there was the back-and-forth between Rep. Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, and her opponent, Republican doctor Joe Heck.

"Today's disappointing unemployment numbers are another reminder of how important it is to pass an extension of unemployment benefits to help Nevadans weather this economic storm," said Titus, who is seeking $580 million in federal funding for green jobs in Nevada. "The failed economic policies of the Bush administration have left us with the deepest recession in a generation, and as we work to turn our economy around, it is critical that we provide relief for Nevadans who are struggling to stay in their home or put food on the table."

Heck responded with tales of out-of-work friends and spending his savings to keep his small business afloat.

"The monthly employment numbers serve as a painful reminder that Washington continues to burden Nevadans every day with policies aimed at growing government instead of increasing jobs," Heck said. "It is obvious that Washington is more interested in political theater than creating sustainable jobs. It's time for Dina Titus to pay more attention to what's going on in Nevada and less attention to Nancy Pelosi. ... It's time for Dina Titus to stop worrying about her own job and start doing something to create jobs right here in Southern Nevada."

We'll let them duke it out while we ask economic experts what the latest numbers mean for Nevadans. What the data seem to be indicating, observers say, is that politicians will be tangling over high jobless numbers for the foreseeable future.

"I would still contend that we're bouncing along the bottom right now, unfortunately," Anderson said. "I just don't see anything out there that will push us onto the up-slope of the business cycle. Economic activity is more or less moving sideways."

Added Brian Gordon, a principal in local research and consulting firm Applied Analysis: "A new reality could be emerging that says we may see these unemployment levels for the next several months, if not through the end of the year. We need to see consistent improvements in overall fundamentals, whether it's retail sales, visitor spending, gaming revenue or visitor volume, before business owners grab hold and invest more in their human capital."

Analysts said they do see some cause for optimism.

A few sectors added jobs statewide from May to June. Take the combined category of trade, transportation and utilities, which grew by 2,000 positions. Education and health services added 2,100 jobs, while professional and business services such as law firms and architecture studios grew by 400 positions . The private sector added 3,400 new jobs across the state in June despite 2,400 jobs cut in construction and 100 positions lost in leisure and hospitality.

But thanks mostly to the end of the school year, state and local governments pared 4,800 jobs, and those reductions offset private-sector growth.

Expect that public-sector number to worsen in coming months as the U.S. Census wraps up and thousands of temporary workers lose those people-counting positions, Anderson said. Still, the overall jobs decline isn't as steep as it was in the recession's heart. Nevada's job market shrank 2.3 percent year over year in June, a marked improvement over the nearly double-digit percentage drops of 2009. Nevada could start to post job gains in 2011, though the improvements won't be pronounced, he said.

"We do see scattered signs of stabilization," Anderson said. "Most of the worst news is behind us, and we're seeing our rate of job loss ease considerably. We're just not seeing growth."

Nevada's jobless rate could worsen before it improves, experts said.

Anderson's agency has predicted a statewide jobless high of 14.5 percent to 15 percent.

"The depths of this recession have proven very difficult to forecast, so we're just going to have to wait and see," Anderson said. "But I wouldn't be surprised to see it tick up in the months ahead. We're just not going to see the rapid deterioration we saw."

Gordon agreed that joblessness in Nevada could continue to rise. Factors to watch include not just the number of jobs available but also the size of the work force, which could change as discouraged workers drop out of the labor pool, or as retirees, homemakers or others who already had left the job market return to help shore up household finances.

But just as important, Gordon said, are the ranks of the underemployed. With an unemployment and underemployment rate exceeding 20 percent, the state claims huge numbers of consumers who simply aren't spending.

"We're entering a new reality. We will not be returning to pre-recession levels overnight," he said. "It may take several years to crawl back to our previous level of consumer spending and, ultimately, employment."

Before Nevada's outlook can improve, national indicators must show strength, Anderson said. The nation's jobless rate did edge down from 9.7 percent in May to 9.5 percent in June, though economists credited much of the decline to discouraged workers giving up the job hunt.

It will take a few months' to a few quarters' worth of declines in national unemployment before Nevada will feel the results in the improved consumer confidence that would boost discretionary spending among tourists here, Gordon said.

Some states' jobless data won't be out until today , so it wasn't clear Monday whether the Silver State would retain the No. 1 ranking it stole from Michigan in May. Michigan officials already have announced that the Great Lakes State posted a jobless rate in June of 13.2 percent, down from 13.6 percent in May, so early indicators point to a probable repeat performance for Nevada at the top of the jobless chart.

And if that happens, we can think of at least a few people who'll have something to say about it.

Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@ reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4512.