Can a Bill Clinton bump stop a GOP tide in Nevada elections?

In every key Nevada race, Republicans have cast more early-voting ballots than Democrats ahead of today’s rally starring former President Bill Clinton, who is being brought in by Nevada Democrats who hope the “comeback kid” can boost party turnout and head off a GOP sweep of state offices.

The re-election of U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., also is in jeopardy. A conservative group, Crossroads GPS, is running $1 million in ads against him, and his GOP foe, Assemblyman Cresent Hardy, R-Mesquite, goes on air today with his own campaign commercial, a biographical ad that highlights his endorsement by GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval.

With stakes high, national Democratic and Republican congressional campaign committees are providing eleventh-hour money and advertising help in the 4th Congressional District.

“We have worked very hard for months to identify Hardy supporters and will do all we can to encourage everyone to vote between now and the time the polls close on Election Day,” said Scott Scheid, a Hardy campaign operative. “Each day we gain new supporters, and each day this looks better and better for Cresent Hardy.”

Horsford’s campaign didn’t respond when asked about early voting trends.

LEANING REPUBLICAN

The 4th Congressional District, which covers northern Clark County and all or part of six rural counties, demonstrates the GOP’s early edge. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 33,156 voters in the district, but as of Monday morning, after nine days of early voting, Republicans held a 1,549-ballot lead over Democrats.

Statewide, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by some 62,000 voters. But this year, 14,801 more Republicans have voted than Democrats. Early voting closes Friday.

As a result, Democratic candidates once called front-runners now find themselves in competitive races, with momentum going to Republicans heading into the Nov. 4 election. Historically, Democrats lead in early voting, with greater Republican turnout on Election Day.

The attorney general’s race also is tightening. Republican Adam Laxalt, who has been either behind in polls or within the margin of error, now has an early jump on his Democratic opponent, Ross Miller, the secretary of state.

While surveys show Laxalt is supported more strongly by his GOP base, Miller has demonstrated more crossover support, making the contest a coin flip.

“Ross has always been nonpartisan in his approach as secretary of state,” said Jim Ferrence, a Miller adviser. “Ross’ crossover appeal is undeniable, while … Laxalt is unknown as a person, and his views are extreme, limiting his appeal.”

But Laxalt appeared confident, saying he is getting strong support among members of the military. A former U.S. Navy judge advocate general, Laxalt headed up a team of prosecutors who worked with the Iraqi government on cases involving terrorists and militants.

In a recent debate, Miller questioned Laxalt’s work in Iraq, suggesting he was just a paper pusher — a remark that prompted Laxalt’s mother, Michelle, to issue a video Monday demanding an apology. The remark is also used in attack ads against Miller.

“I have been to dozens of events since early voting started, and I’m yet to find a Republican saying they support Ross Miller,” Laxalt said Monday.

Before early voting began, polls showed the secretary of state’s race a dead heat between Democrat Kate Marshall, who is state treasurer, and state Sen. Barbara Cegavske, R-Las Vegas. Now, insiders suggest the lesser-known and lesser-funded Cegavske has a better chance of winning if the GOP continues to hold its early voting edge.

The state controller and treasurer’s races also are up for grabs, with insiders giving the GOP the advantage.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, state Sen. Mark Hutchison, R-Las Vegas, already was the front-runner with Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, D-Las Vegas, trying to catch him. Her task is now all the more difficult.

Sandoval has endorsed Hutchison and often campaigns with him, working side by side to ensure his choice becomes his deputy and perhaps successor if he leaves his second term early to challenge U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in 2016.

Sandoval, who says he likes being governor and doesn’t have an exit plan, is expected to win re-election in a landslide, easily beating little-known Democrat Bob Goodman.

TACTICAL ERROR

David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said Democrats made a mistake in failing to put up a fight for the governor’s seat. He said this allowed Sandoval to focus on raising money for his political action committee, which supports other GOP candidates, and building a better election turnout ground game.

“I think the Republicans have finally learned that early voting is not going away and we’re going to have to do it, too,” Damore said. “For Democrats, you look at the ballot, and there’s not a lot to get excited about.”

Damore said there is a far better chance now that the GOP will retake control of the state Senate, now run by Democrats with a narrow 11-to-10 seat advantage.

Meanwhile, Reid, who built the Nevada Democratic Party into a strong election machine, has bigger concerns, working to ensure the Senate stays in Democratic hands — and that he remains majority leader.

Clinton, a popular figure among Democrats, is expected to help turnout in the short run, perhaps boosting it as early voting comes to a close. But his visit is a Hail Mary pass, “not a sign of strength,” Damore said.

“You’re seeing a lot of things in play,” he said.

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow @lmyerslvrj on Twitter.