Biden keeps Democratic caucus lead in Nevada poll, Warren rising

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a commanding lead among Democratic caucus voters in Nevada, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren has risen quickly into second place, according to a new Emerson College poll.

The poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, shows Biden with 30 percent support, Warren with 22 percent and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., with 19 percent. Three other candidates — Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif.; South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and businessman Andrew Yang — are tied for fourth place at 5 percent each.

Billionaire Tom Steyer registered at 3 percent in the poll; all other candidates were at 1 percent or less. Additionally, 7 percent of those surveyed said they preferred someone else.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. In a similar survey at the end of March, Biden led with 26 percent, and Sanders was in second place at 23 percent. Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke and Warren tied for third, with 10 percent.

O’Rourke announced Friday that he is dropping out of the race.

Spencer Kimball, a professor at Emerson College and director of Emerson Polling, said Warren’s surge is seen in other polls nationally and tracks with her recent debate performances.

“She has become a formidable candidate in this primary race,” he said.

Biden’s campaign reacted warmly to the news.

“We’re incredibly proud of the organizing model we’ve built in Nevada, rooted in meeting caucus goers wherever they are and mobilizing Nevada’s diverse communities all across the state,” the campaign said in a statement. “We’re pleased by the results of this poll, but we know there’s plenty of work to be done. We’re not taking any caucus goer or community for granted and will continue to build out an organizing program that reflects the diversity and size of the state.”

The Sanders campaign declined to comment, and a spokesman for Warren in Nevada said the campaign has a consistent policy of not commenting on polls.

About half the Democrats surveyed, 52 percent, said they might change their minds about their preferred candidate before the February caucus, while 48 percent said they would stick with their first choice. Among that latter group, Biden (at 55 percent) and Sanders (at 50 percent) had the most committed fans. Just 27 percent of Warren’s supporters said they were unlikely to change their minds.

Kimball said the makeup of the top tier in Nevada shows the establishment versus progressive fight that rended the Democratic Party in 2016 wasn’t settled but continues, with Biden as the moderate establishment’s pick and Sanders and Warren representing the progressive wing.

“The Democrats are in a fight for the soul of the party, and that’s going to play out in these primaries and caucuses,” he said.

When it comes to beating President Donald Trump, however, the Democratic front-runners find themselves in a tight race.

The poll also surveyed Republican, Democratic and independent likely voters in Nevada and found Trump running even with Sanders at 50 percent each; Trump defeated Biden and Warren in the head-to-head matchup at 51 percent to 49 percent. This portion of the poll carried a 2.9 percentage-point margin of error.

“In my opinion, Nevada is probably the best state for (Trump) to try to pick up,” Kimball said.

Providing Medicare for everybody in America was the most popular health care plan, according to the poll. Sanders and Warren back that idea, while Biden prefers building on the existing Affordable Care Act to cover those who currently don’t have health insurance.

A total of 28 percent favored “Medicare for All,” while people who said that we should leave things as they are and that we should include a public option in Medicare tied at 23 percent each. Democrats and independents supported Medicare for All, while a plurality of Republicans preferred leaving things as they are.

The poll also asked voters whether they thought former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 2016, should run again in 2020. Two-thirds, 66.8 percent, said she should not, while 22.9 percent answered that she should. And 10.3 percent were unsure.

In other findings, the poll found that Gov. Steve Sisolak enjoys an approval rating of 36.2 percent, while 31.3 percent disapprove. In addition, 28.2 percent were neutral, and 4.3 percent didn’t recognize the governor’s name.

Contact Steve Sebelius at SSebelius@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0253. Follow @SteveSebelius on Twitter.