GOP leads Democrats in Nevada voter rolls for first time in nearly 20 years

Republicans have taken the lead over Democrats in Nevada’s voter registration numbers, marking the first time in nearly 20 years the GOP has outnumbered Democrats in the battleground state.

The latest numbers come as Republicans are celebrating President Donald Trump’s victory and hoping for future success in 2026 races, though in a close battleground state like Nevada, political strategists and scientists expect the numbers could continue shifting.

Registered Republicans make up 617,204 of the state’s voters, while 616,863 are Democrats, according to the latest voter registration data. Nonpartisans still make up the largest group at 691,977.

That contrasts with registration from December 2024, when Democrats made up 626,538 of the more than 2 million voters in Nevada, and Republicans numbered 622,371, according to the voter registration statistics of that time period.

The decrease in registered voters for both parties between December and January is due to post-election voter roll purges, and it is typical voter roll maintenance, according to GOP strategist Jeremy Hughes.

Republicans have been closing the gap both before and after the 2024 election. In October, Republicans were 9,000 voters behind Democrats, and were about 6,000 behind in November. Those voter registration numbers “were a precursor to Donald Trump’s victory,” Hughes said.

At the beginning of 2024, there were 36,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, according to voter registration data.

“Voter registration isn’t destiny, right? Just because you have the lead doesn’t mean you win,” Hughes said. “But Republicans have been fighting so long from underneath from being behind in the numbers, that it is nice to finally have the numbers on your side.”

Making inroads

A data visualization map of election results by precinct created by The New York Times showed Trump made inroads since 2020 in heavily Democratic precincts in Clark County. One precinct by East Tropicana Avenue and South Las Vegas Boulevard, for instance, showed support for Trump increased by 8 percentage points since 2020.

Hughes attributed the Republican lead to the work the party has done in its campaigning and the surge of support for President Trump, who was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nevada in decades. Hughes also credited Chris Carr, former political director of the Republican National Committee, with the rise in registration numbers thanks to his push on the importance of voter registration starting in 2013.

There’s not a big difference between being up or down 500 in voter registration, and the numbers could shift in the future, “but it’s nice to see the work has paid off,” Hughes said.

“I think it’ll be great for Republican recruitment,” he said. “It’ll be great for Republican candidates, and I think we’ll see these numbers continue to hopefully move in (the) Republican direction, and we’ll have even more Republicans elected in ’26.”

Trump posted Monday evening on Truth Social thanking Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald, Gov. Joe Lombardo and the Nevada GOP for their efforts in increasing voter registration.

“Wow! In Nevada, a State I love and WON BIG in 2024, Republicans now lead Democrats in Voter Registration for the first time since 2007,” he wrote.

McDonald attributed the Republican lead to the party’s grassroots, county chair leadership and Trump and his team.

Auto voter registration shifted focus

Voter registration numbers have changed significantly since the state’s automatic voter registration system took effect in 2021. It automatically registered Nevadans at the Department of Motor Vehicles as nonpartisans if they didn’t select a specific party. The number of nonpartisan voters grew, and they became the largest voting bloc in 2023, leaving parties with the need to focus less on voter registration and more on wooing voters to their side.

Nevada State Democratic Party Executive Director Hilary Barrett said nonpartisan voters decide elections in the battleground state, and the party invests in year-round organizing to turn out Democrats, nonpartisans and moderate Republicans.

“Nevada Democrats have been laser-focused on talking directly to the growing number of registered nonpartisans and making sure we are mobilizing the broad and diverse coalitions we need to win,” Barrett said in a statement.

Though Trump won Nevada, Democrats did well in key races down the ballot. Democratic congressional incumbents won their races, and Democrats maintained their majority in the Nevada Legislature. In 2021, the Democratic leaders redrew the maps to help get them supermajorities in the Legislature, though they were unsuccessful in reaching supermajorities in both chambers.

The last time Republicans outnumbered Democrats in Nevada was March 2007, when 408,438 registered voters were Republicans and 408,301 were Democrats.

Back then, Republicans’ brand was at an all-time low, and the rise of former President Barack Obama increased Democratic numbers, Hughes said.

A long-term but unsteady shift

Republicans taking the lead in Nevada’s voter registration numbers is not surprising, and it reflects both short and long-term trends, said Dan Lee, a political science professor at UNLV.

Since the 1960s, there has been a gradual movement toward the Republican Party, he said. The Democratic Party’s advantage during the New Deal era has been slowly whittling away as working class Americans shifted toward Republicans, Lee said. In terms of both the economy and what level the government’s role should be in people’s lives, people have shifted to support more conservative ideas, he said.

But the numbers also reflect a short-term trend of blaming the incumbent party for the problems with the economy. The Democratic Party was in power, and voters’ views of the party soured due to the economy, Lee said.

Democrats could rebound in the next two years, depending on what happens, Lee said. Typically, presidents and their party have midterm losses, Lee said. It will depend on how the Republican Party handles the economy and other big issues.

Contact Jessica Hill at jehill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @jess_hillyeah on X.