Open Nevada seats play role in control of US House

Two Nevada congressional seats are in play this November, setting up a showdown between national Democrats vying to win a House majority and Republicans determined to expand control of the chamber.

The pair of open seats are up for grabs because Democrats are vacating them. Rep. Jacky Rosen is leaving the 3rd Congressional District seat to run for the U.S. Senate. Rep. Ruben Kihuen is not seeking re-election in the 4th Congressional District amid accusations of sexual misconduct.

And while political analysts say the seats lean Democrat, national Republicans are coming after them. Both districts are top targets for the National Republican Congressional Committee — especially the 3rd Congressional District, which President Donald Trump won in 2016 by 1 percentage point.

“Both of these seats are very winnable for us,” NRCC spokesman Jack Pandol said. “President Trump won the CD3 seat in 2016, and it’s traditionally been a Republican-held seat. We see it as one of the top pickup opportunities in the country.”

The GOP held the seat in six of the eight terms since it was created in 2002, but Danny Tarkanian lost his bid in 2016 — even while Trump carried the district. Tarkanian, who’s unsuccessfully run for office five times, is making another run for the seat and faces off in November with Democrat Susie Lee.

Playing defense

The departures of Rosen and Kihuen have Democrats playing defense in Nevada. They would take control of the House if they held those two seats and picked up 23 more. Currently, Republicans hold 235 seats, Democrats have 193 and there are seven vacancies. At least 21 seats in the House are considered toss-ups.

“We absolutely need to hold these two seats,” said Drew Godinich, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “We’re going to support the strong Democrats who are running in those two seats and remind voters of the failed far-right agenda.”

Democrats aren’t worried about the prospects for Lee — who unsuccessfully ran for the 4th Congressional District in 2016 — because Tarkanian is a “flawed candidate,” Godinich said.

“Nevada voters have rejected him five times already,” he said. “Even as Trump won the seat, voters rejected Danny Tarkanian’s history of alleged corruption.”

Godinich said Tarkanian’s failure to draw 50 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s primary is another indication of his weakness as a candidate. Tarkanian won 44 percent of the primary vote, while Lee secured 66 percent.

But Tarkanian also faced tougher opponents, such as state Sen. Scott Hammond and former TV reporter Michelle Mortensen. Lee’s opponents were virtual unknowns.

Pandol said Lee has “baggage of her own,” and her personal wealth makes her out of touch with everyday Nevadans.

“She has been caught lying about using her personal plane and has bear hugged Nanci Pelosi,” Pandol said. “These are all issues we feel can be used and will influence voters in the general election.”

Advantage in 4th District?

The 4th Congressional District, which covers five rural counties and part of Clark County, is much younger than the 3rd District, but Democrats have won two of the three elections for that seat. This year brings a rematch of two of the district’s former representatives, Democrat Steven Horsford and Republican Cresent Hardy.

Horsford won the seat in 2012, but Hardy defeated him by 3 percentage points in 2014. Political experts say Nevada’s competitive U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races — along with an unpopular GOP president — could drive a victory for Horsford.

The Cook Political Report rates CD 4 as “likely Democratic” and CD 3 “lean Democratic.” Clinton won CD 4 in 2016 by 5 percentage points.

“I think the antipathy toward the president among the Democrats is very high,” said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “The top-of-the-ticket races are going to be a principal driver of turnout. The most likely outcome is that Democrats will hold both seats.”

Contact Ramona Giwargis at rgiwargis@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4538. Follow @RamonaGiwargis on Twitter.