Poll: Reid still trailing Sandoval in bid for Nevada governor

The closing stretch looks a lot like the opening turn in the race for Nevada governor, with Republican Brian Sandoval holding a big lead over Democrat Rory Reid.

Sandoval leads Reid by 16 percentage points with just three days until Election Day, a change of just 1 percentage point since a poll taken in October 2009, when Sandoval launched his campaign.

The latest Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow poll of 625 Nevada voters showed 54 percent preferred Sandoval, a former federal judge, to 38 percent who chose Reid, chairman of the Clark County Commission and son of U.S. Senate majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

“Every number breaks against Reid,” said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at University of Nevada, Reno. “You can’t win with a number profile like that.”

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Results included responses from people who already cast ballots at early voting locations and people who are likely to vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Sandoval leads Reid in every category listed except Democrats, even in Clark County where Reid needs a big advantage to counter Sandoval’s popularity in the northern part of the state.

Sandoval, 47, led among Washoe County respondents 55 to 36 percent, among Clark County respondents 51 to 41 and among independents statewide 61 to 29.

Sandoval’s 90 to 5 percent advantage among Republicans was also stronger than Reid’s 74 to 16 percent advantage among Democrats.

The results from Mason-Dixon depict a race slightly narrower than a compilation of polls posted on the Real Clear Politics website that show an average margin of 18.2 percentage points for Sandoval. Results vary from one poll to another, but none show Sandoval with less than an 11 percentage point lead.

Reid, who raised $6.3 million during the course of the campaign compared to Sandoval’s $4.2 million, is counting on high Democratic turnout to pull off an upset.

“I’ve worked as hard as I could,” Reid, 47, said of the campaign. “And I’ve spent every moment trying to communicate with as many people as possible.”

On Thursday evening, the Democrat walked door-to-door with Assembly candidate Lucy Flores in a working class neighborhood on the east side of Las Vegas. He explained to voters that a Sandoval ad accusing him of missing 140 County Commission votes failed to say that there were more than 3,000 agenda items for consideration on those occasions but only one of the missed votes could have changed a final outcome.

“I knew there was more to it than that,” Mark Gibrick, 67, said after Reid met him and his son, Anthony, 24.

“That’s at least two votes you’re going to get,” the elder Gibrick told Reid.

Reid was in good spirits during the walk, chatting with voters in English and Spanish and joking with volunteers.

He says internal campaign polls show the race closer than public polls, and that he remains determined to press his case through Election Day.

“Now the polls and the pundits don’t matter,” Reid said. “People are voting.”

Observers of Nevada politics, however, say it would take a shocking turn of events for Reid to close the gap.

“At this point it seems like it is a foregone conclusion,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “You can close a 5 point gap with a good turnout, but a 16 point gap is just too much.”

For his part, Sandoval appears content to sit on his lead.

The Republican from Reno debated Reid three times in October but isn’t planning many public appearances in the final days. The only big event on his public schedule is today’s Nevada Day parade in Carson City, though his spokeswoman, Mary-Sarah Kinner, said he will visit schools and businesses and walk precincts in the Reno area before Election Day.

“Brian is encouraged by the response he has received (from) voters across the state but obviously there remains work to be done,” Kinner said.

Sandoval has also updated his advertising with a television spot that seeks to burnish his positive image with voters.

According to Mason-Dixon responses, 56 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of Sandoval and 23 percent unfavorable.

Only 35 percent had a favorable impression of Reid; 49 percent viewed him unfavorably.

Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, said Reid’s favorable-unfavorable numbers have remained in negative territory largely for reasons beyond his control.

Reid’s father is viewed negatively by more than half of likely voters, and there appears to be resistance by the electorate to the notion they should vote for a father and son on the same ticket.

“You just can’t change numbers when you walk in the door with that hanging around your neck,” Coker said.

Sandoval’s emergence as a candidate nine months after Reid started campaigning also worked against the Democrat.

Had Sandoval remained in his job as a federal judge in Reno, Reid likely would have faced unpopular incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons in the general election.

Instead, he drew Sandoval, who has a strong resume that includes stints as an assemblyman, attorney general, gaming commission chairman and as a federal judge who ascended to the bench with support from Sen. Reid.

If he wins, Sandoval will also be Nevada’s first Hispanic governor.

Sandoval’s experience and scandal-free background didn’t give Reid much material for effective criticism.

“They haven’t dug up anything on him and he hasn’t said anything to get himself in trouble,” Damore said.

In the closing weeks Reid has criticized Sandoval for failing to release a promised detailed plan to balance the state’s 2011-13 budget, which projections suggest could be as much as $3 billion in the red. Sandoval has deflected the attacks by criticizing Reid’s budget plan, which analysts have said includes at least $615 million in revenue that is unlikely to materialize.

“That caused him a credibility gap,” Herzik said of holes in Reid’s plan. “Then he’s left railing against Sandoval for not being more specific. But being specific actually kind of hurt Rory Reid.”

Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@ reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.

ad-high_impact_4
News
NSPCA Gets Kittens From LA
Man killed during road-rage incident
Las Vegas police are looking for two men involved in the shooting death of a man outside a 7-Eleven story at Bonanza Road and Maryland Parkway on Nov. 12, 2018. (Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department)
VA Southern Nevada Healthcare System hosts Veterans Day Car Show and BBQ
The 4th Annual Veterans Day Car Show and BBQ is held in celebration of Veterans Day at the VA Southern Nevada Healthcare System Medical Center in North Las Vegas, Saturday, Nov. 10, 2018. (Caroline Brehman/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Wildfires in Southern California
Wildfires hit Ventura County, Calif., on Nov. 9, 2018. (Richard Brian/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Dedication of Nevada's Battle Born memorial
The state of Nevada on Friday dedicated its Battle Born memorial honoring 895 state residents who have died in America’s wars.
Las Vegas police and Sunrise Children's Hospital hope to prevent infant deaths
The Metropolitan Police Department and Sunrise Children's Hospital held a press conference to get the message out on preventable infant deaths attributed to "co-sleeping" and other unsafe sleeping habits. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
No serious injuries after car hits tree in south Las Vegas
One person reported minor injuries but wasn’t hospitalized after a Wednesday morning crash in the south valley.
Nellis Air Force Base keeps airmen fed
Nellis Air Force Bass airmen have delicious and healthy food items, and a variety of dining facilities to choose from. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Suspicious package found at central Las Vegas post office
Las Vegas police determined that a suspicious package found Monday morning at a central valley post office was not a threat.
Suspicious package found at central Las Vegas post office
Police evacuated the area around the Garside Station post office early Monday morning near Oakey and Decatur boulevards.
With husband's passing, family in limbo for workers' comp claim
Meredith Tracy's husand, Russell Tracy, died more than a year ago on his first day working for a new company when he fell 22 feet into a manhole that was not properly safeguarded. His employer was fined $82,000 in penalties for unsafe practices, but the company has denied her workers' compensation claim, leaving her with no compensation since the death. Rachel Aston Las Vegas Review-Journal @rookie__rae
With husband's passing, family in limbo for workers' comp claim
Meredith Tracy's husand, Russell Tracy, died more than a year ago on his first day working for a new company when he fell 22 feet into a manhole that was not properly safeguarded. His employer was fined $82,000 in penalties for unsafe practices, but the company has denied her workers' compensation claim, leaving her with no compensation since the death. Rachel Aston Las Vegas Review-Journal @rookie__rae
Las Vegas family shares flu warning
Carlo and Brenda Occhipinti lost their son, Carlo Jr., or “Junior,” to the flu last year.
Author Randall Cannon shares an anecdote about Stadust Raceway
Author Randall Cannon shares an anecdote about Dan Blocker, who played Hoss Cartwright on the TV show "Bonanza," and the actor's passion for auto racing at Stardust International Raceway in Las Vegas during the 1960s. (Ron Kantowski/Las Vegas Review-Journal.)
Project Neon 85 percent complete
On Wednesday morning Oct. 31, Interstate 15 northbound lane restrictions were removed opening up Exit 41 to Charleston Blvd. On Thursday Nov. 1, Interstate 15 southbound lane restrictions were removed. The new southbound off-ramp to Sahara Ave. and Highland Dr. also opened Thursday, November 1. With Project Neon 85% finished the flow of traffic on Interstate 15 has substantially diminished. (Michael Quine/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Girl killed after jumping from bridge onto 215 Beltway in Henderson
Eastbound lanes of the 215 Beltway are shut down by the Nevada Highway Patrol after a female juvenile jumped from the 215 overpass at Stephanie and was struck by a FedEx tractor trailer. Michael Quine/Las Vegas Review-Journal @Vegas88s
Kristallnacht story
An interview with 94-year-old Holocaust survivor Alexander Kuechel who survived seven concentration camps and didn’t leave Germany until after World War II was over. (Mia Sims/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
1 dead in central Las Vegas crash
An early Wednesday morning crash left at least one person dead and another injured. The crash was reported just around 3 a.m. at the intersection of Flamingo Road and Swenson Street. At least two vehicles were involved in the crash, one of which caught fire. Debris was scattered across the intersection as police combed the area as they investigated the scene. Flamingo is blocked in both directions between Swenson and Cambridge Street. Northbound Swenson is blocked at the intersection.
Richard Knoeppel named the 2018 Nevada Teacher of the Year
Richard Knoeppel, an architecture design instructor at the Advanced technologies Academy, named the 2018 Nevada Teacher of the Year on Monday, Oct. 29, 2018. (Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal) @bizutesfaye
Mojave Poppy Bees
(Zach Portman/University of Minnesota Department of Entomology) Male Mojave poppy bees exhibit territorial fighting behavior. The Center for Biological Diversity wants the bee, found only in Clark County, to be added to the endangered species list.
Clark County Schools announce random searches
Clark County School District middle and high school students will be subject to random searches for weapons under a new initiative to combat the wave of guns found on campus. (Amelia Pak-Harvey/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Ron Jeremy and Heidi Fleiss React to Dennis Hof's Death
Ron Jeremy and Heidi Fleiss speak about their friend and prominent brothel owner Dennis Hof's death at Dennis Hof's Love Ranch. (Benjamin Hager/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Nevada brothel owner Dennis Hof has died
Nevada brothel owner and Republican candidate for Nevada State Assembly District 36, Dennis Hof has died. He was 72. Nye County Sherriff's office confirmed. Hof owned Love Ranch brothel, located in Crystal, Nevada.
Las Vegas police investigate suspicious package at shopping center
Las Vegas police evacuated a southeast valley shopping center at Flamingo and Sandhill roads early Tuesday morning while they investigated reports of a suspicious package. (Max Michor/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
The Las Vegas Metro hosts the K-9 Trials
The Las Vegas Metro K-9 Trials returns to the Orleans Arena to benefit the Friends For Las Vegas Police K-9 group.
Kingman residents love their little town
Residents of Kingman, Ariz. talk about how they ended up living in the Route 66 town, and what they love about their quiet community. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Service at Southern Nevada Veterans Memorial Cemetery
Twelve unclaimed veterans are honored at Southern Nevada Veterans Memorial Cemetery in Boulder City in Oct. 9, 2018. (Briana Erickson/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Las Vegas house prices reach highest level in 11 years
Las Vegas house prices are rising But so is the amount of available homes on the market Still, properties priced below $300,000 are selling fast And September was the first time since June 2007 that the median house price reached the $300,000 mark Las Vegas home prices have been rising at one of the fastest rates in the country over the past year Recent data show the market is now less affordable than the national average
National Night Out
About 100 Summerlin residents gathered at Park Centre Dr. in Summerlin on Tuesday for National Night Out. Lt. Joshua Bitsko with Las Vegas Metro, played with 3-year-old David who was dressed as a police officer. Face painting, fire truck tours and more kept kids busy as parents roamed behind them. (Mia Sims/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Rural homeless issue comes to a head in Pahrump
On Sept. 12, Pahrump sheriff deputies told residents of a homeless encampment on private property that they had 15 minutes to vacate and grab their belongings. That decision might face some legal consequences. (Rachel Aston/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
TOP NEWS
News Headlines
ad-infeed_1
ads_infeed_2
Local Spotlight
Add Event
Home Front Page Footer Listing
Circular
You May Like

You May Like