Republican leads House race

Rep. Dina Titus' infamous F-bomb prediction that Democrats would face election year trouble after supporting the divisive health care reform has landed with an explosive bang in her backyard.

The freshman Democrat is now running behind Republican opponent Joe Heck, according to the latest poll commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, following $1.3 million in ads outside interests opposed to the health care bill have run to try to sink Titus' re-election hopes.

According to the Mason-Dixon poll, Heck would get 49 percent of the vote if the election were held today and Titus would take home 44 percent, with 7 percent un­decided. That's within the survey's 6 percentage points margin of error, but represents a gain for Heck in the first few months of this year.

A previous Mason-Dixon poll in December showed a Titus-Heck matchup in a 40-40 dead heat before Congress approved the health measure that has divided the nation with Democrats returning home to defend what Republicans criticize as a government takeover of medical care.

"Dina Titus is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House," said David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, an analytical shop that follows congressional races. "We've had this race as a toss-up for months because of the health care vote. It's not a great environment for Democrats."

In a private moment in January, Titus painted a doomsday scenario for Democrats, telling fellow House freshmen in a meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi that they would be f--ked in November if they didn't learn from the surprise GOP victory of Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Brown won the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat on a wave of discontent over the health care legislation.

The December poll showed that 47 percent of Nevada voters disapproved of Titus' vote in favor of the House version of the reform bill, while 41 percent approved and 12 percent weren't sure.

In the latest survey, 300 voters in the 3rd Congressional District were asked their opinion of Titus and Heck and she won both the popularity -- and the unpopularity -- contests. Forty-one percent had a favorable view of Titus versus 34 percent favorable for Heck.

But 45 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Titus compared with 15 percent for Heck. Titus is well known in her district, with only 2 percent not recognizing her name, compared with 16 percent not knowing Heck.

In 2008, Titus won her Clark County-based seat by beating incumbent Republican Jon Porter in a year Democrats swept elections on the coattails of President Barack Obama thanks to a heavy voter registration drive. Titus, a former state senator who lost a 2006 election for governor, is the first Democrat to win the district, but got only 47 percent of the vote to Porter's 42 percent.

Now the political tables are turned for Titus, who could be hurt by being on the same ballot as U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, the Democratic leader who is in a tough re-election fight as well, analysts said.

"She has to paint Heck as an un­acceptable alternative and hope that Harry Reid stops being a drag on the top of the ticket," Wasserman said. "She's got to rally the core and get people behind this health care legislation. They need something to sell to the base."

On the campaign trail, Reid and Titus have promoted benefits of the legislation, including guaranteed insurance for people with pre-existing medical conditions and the plan to create thousands of community health centers for people, who also can buy cheaper pool coverage.

The Titus campaign said she is focused on not only promoting health care reform, but also on helping Nevadans facing record home foreclosures and 13 percent unemployment rates.

"As we get closer to Election Day, voters will know that they have a clear choice between Dina Titus, who is fighting to keep families in their homes and create jobs, and Senator Heck, who wants to privatize Social Security and dismantle Medicare," said Titus spokesman Andrew Stoddard.

Stoddard said more than $1.3 million in ads have been run against Titus so far by outside groups, although the Democratic Party and Titus herself plan to spend just as much to fight back.

Last year Titus, a UNLV political science professor, raised more than $1 million for her re-election bid and had about three-quarters of that still in the bank at the end of 2009. She hasn't yet reported first quarter fundraising figures.

Heck raised more than $160,000 during the first three months of 2010, according to Ryan Erwin, a campaign consultant.

He said the GOP candidate expects donations to increase as well as outside help from interest groups and the Republican Party in one of the top 10 House races in the nation.

A former state senator and an emergency room doctor, Heck lost his re-election in 2008 to a little-known Democrat who also rode the Obama wave to victory, according to Erwin.

Heck initially announced he was running for governor in 2010, but switched to the House race late last year.

"He has the advantage in the race this year," Erwin said, citing Heck's Army Reserve service in Iraq as well as his relatively moderate Republican views that might appeal to general election voters. "It's going to be a good Republican year where candidates who are intelligent and ethically sound will win."

Heck has his weaknesses, including flip-flopping earlier this year by signing a pledge not to raise taxes after he was pressured by conservative Republicans and after initially saying he wouldn't.

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.