Old message, new megaphone

‘Voters have spoken, but what did they say?” asks The Economist. Good question, and the magazine provides a trenchant answer: “Democrats risk drawing the wrong lessons from one good day. Moderate governors offer a better model than a charming socialist in New York.”

This month’s elections suggest two very different pathways for the Democrats.

New Yorkers chose as mayor that “charming socialist,” 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani, who certainly galvanized voters — especially young ones — with his smart and spirited campaign. But the two moderate Democrats who won governors’ races — Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey — provide a more useful template for a party hoping to win back control of Congress next year and the White House in 2028.

Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times interviewed another pragmatic governor of a key state, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and concluded: The “election results have supercharged the debate among Democrats about whether the road to political recovery runs toward the middle or the left. The reason the argument persists is not because the answer is unclear but because, for many Democrats, the clear answer is unpalatable. The party will not return to the White House, nor reclaim Congress, until it learns to embrace centrist politicians like Mr. Shapiro.”

That answer is “unpalatable” to the party’s left wing because it harbors an almost unlimited capacity for self-delusion. For years now, they have maintained that this is a liberal country ready to elect a left-wing progressive as president, but that is plainly nonsense.

Three reputable national polls — Gallup, Pew and YouGov — recently surveyed the American electorate and reported remarkably similar results. Averaging all of their findings produces this voter portrait: 35.3 percent conservative, 34 percent moderate, 25.3 percent liberal.

The center of gravity is slightly right of center. That’s why President Donald Trump has called Mamdani “one of the best things to ever happen to our great Republican Party.” And the GOP is already blasting out ads linking every Democrat to the mayor-elect.

“I don’t think there’s any question he will be on the ballot next November,” Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican who represents a swing district north of New York City, told Politico. “This is something that will certainly play in New York, but I think you’ll see it across the country.”

Third Way, an organization that supports centrist Democrats, warns that Mamdani’s “policies and message, which are radical and politically toxic outside the deep blue confines of New York City, do not translate.” A good example is his previous support for defunding the police, perhaps the most suicidal slogan in recent memory. He disavows it now, but the quote is out there — and in every Republican commercial.

If some of Mamdani’s policies are toxic, however, his strategic sense has been brilliant. A party that got badly outclassed on social media by Republicans last year has a lot to learn from a young digital native who dominated cyberspace. “Democrats should seek to emulate his relaxed, hip and relatable style, his social media savvy and his laserlike focus on a handful of simple, sticky promises voters could understand and remember,” Third Way said.

The successful Democrats all focused on one “simple, sticky” problem: the rising cost of living. The exact issue that helped elect Trump is now dragging down Republicans, and while the president is in denial, insisting that prices are coming down, more clear-eyed conservatives are conceding the truth.

“Grocery prices are going up,” says GOP radio host Erick Erickson. “And now Republicans are perversely doing the same thing Democrats did when they were in office with Joe Biden, saying, ‘No, actually, don’t believe your eyes at the grocery store, prices are coming down!’ That’s not helpful to Americans who are feeling higher grocery costs right now, which is actually happening. The Republicans have gotta figure this out.”

In refusing to confront the inflation issue, Trump is trying to distract voters by stressing crime and immigration at home and peacemaking and saber-rattling abroad, but none of those policies affects voters every day. Prices do.

“Trump needs to ditch the foreign policy crap and focus all his attention on the domestic economy, which is still not working for the majority of people,” writes Sean Davis, head of The Federalist, a right-wing website. “Right now he looks weak and rudderless. Be mad all you want, but it’s the truth.”

So here’s the winning formula for Democrats going forward: Combine a pragmatic focus on kitchen-table issues with a relentless and relatable presence on social media. Old message. New megaphone.

Steve Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.