The mighty Bill Raggio faces a significant challenge

Every two years, Nevada Republicans and Democrats get really excited about legislative races.

The Republicans recruit as many candidates as possible to take on the Goliaths in the lower house and Democrats try to pick off one or two Republicans to wipe out the narrow lead in the upper house.

Redistricting makes these exercises all but impossible unless an incumbent has retired or done something extraordinarily stupid in the preceding years.

This year Democrats are trying once again to retake the majority for the first time in 15 years. And while they are eyeing two Clark County districts where Democrats are making inroads in voter registration, there's also a way for the South -- where Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans -- to regain strength thanks to a northern race.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, is to the Legislature what Charlton Heston was to the National Rifle Association -- the classic statesman who won't relinquish power until it is pried from his cold, dead hands.

The 81-year-old -- our longest serving senator -- probably figured he could even outlast term limits thanks to inevitable legal challenges.

So Raggio was cruising along to an expected re-election this spring, hoisting his billboards around Reno that take the divisive regional tack Raggio always dismisses in person, "Effective Leadership for Northern Nevada."

One of the most intriguing stories from the election filing season was former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle's last-minute move to seek Raggio's Senate seat.

The conventional wisdom would back Raggio thanks to his decades-long service in Carson City and as a well-known prosecutor, not to mention serving as a shareholder in the state's most powerful law firm. His partners who lobby the Legislature are in great position to assist the money raising arm of Raggio's re-election -- as if the Godfather needed anyone else to kiss his hand.

But there's also some proof that Angle cannot be overlooked in a race like this.

She has been the one-woman bandwagon for property tax caps, going even so far as to be the lone vote against the limits the Legislature set in 2005. She considered the measure unconstitutional as well as "inadequate."

Her congressional primary run in 2006 against Republican Dean Heller, funded largely by the tax-loathing Club for Growth, almost resulted in the Democrats taking a district with 40,000-plus more Republicans.

Angle forced Heller so far to the right that those who knew him as secretary of state cannot fathom his current politics.

She can have that kind of effect on moderates.

Had Angle won that primary -- Heller survived by veering violently to the right and personally calling dozens of voters on the eve of the election -- Angle would have been cast as an extreme nominee in the face of a formidable challenge from conservative Democrat Jill Derby.

Two years ago, when Democrats retook Congress, it was Angle's tiny primary night defeat that really led to Heller's narrow general election escape.

Angle has built-in support from Incline Village and from Republicans who consider Raggio a heretic for approving tax increases and supporting schoolteachers.

And Angle is as able a pavement walker as there is in Nevada politics.

The failure of her surrogates to properly file signatures to qualify her Proposition 13-style ballot initiative in Clark County last week will only embolden the hundreds of signatories who also happen to reside in Raggio's district.

So while the smart money still has to be on Raggio to pull it out, Angle cannot be underestimated.

Raggio won't walk. And if he has to contend with a special session this summer on the eve of the July 26 start of early voting, Angle should be able to make in-roads.

Hers is not necessarily the politics of billboards, direct mail and television commercials.

Even with scads of funding in 2006, it was her petition-driving, grass-roots support that buoyed her against the establishment.

And while Raggio is the consummate fundraiser, the Senate Republican Caucus could easily be forced into focusing so hard on battling the two Southern fronts this fall that it misses the potential upset this summer.

Steven Horsford is so focused and organized on being the new Democratic Senate leader, his signs at the state Democratic convention were already updated with the title he won when Dina Titus opted to leave the Senate and run for Congress.

If anyone can pick up one of the Southern seats, it will be Horsford with his ties to the Culinary union.

Neither district is a particularly easy mark, but if Horsford can turn out the new voters, either Joe Heck or Bob Beers could fall.

And if Raggio were somehow to lose in a primary, the entire political system in Northern Nevada would be in such upheaval that any Democrat with a pulse could actually be turned into a big-enough David to slay the conservative giant Angle.

It's certainly a long-shot, but Angle could make significant news this year at the ballot box.

It just won't be with her property tax initiative.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.