After 20 years as book director, retiring Walker learned to say no

Over the course of two decades working in Las Vegas sports books, Robert Walker has gained several pounds and lost more than a few friends. Only one of those facts concerns him.

Walker would like to drop some weight. As for the frayed relationships, he could not care less.

Running a sports book is a bottom-line business and one in which it's far more important to win money than so-called friends. Walker is a nonstop talker and personable to almost everyone, yet he also knows where he must draw the line.

"It's easy to say yes, and we all want to be liked," he said. "But our jobs are to manage the book, and I think as a manager, you have to be able to say no."

Walker, 46, resigned last month as MGM Mirage sports book director, and today is his last on the job. He's leaving by choice and moving to his hometown of Pasco, Wash., to spend more time with family.

He has overseen many of the highest-profile books on the Strip and was one of the most influential figures in Las Vegas' race and sports industry over the past 20 years.

But not all will remember him as a great bookmaker. To some professional bettors, also known as wiseguys, Walker represents how sports books have gone conservative and changed for the worse.

He estimates "99 percent" of the public is able to wager what it wants at MGM Mirage books. But it's how he deals with the other 1 percent that plays a big part in defining his job performance or forming his reputation.

Walker is known as no friend to the wiseguys. He's not afraid to say no to sharp bettors who want six-figure wagers on NFL games.

"The pros have got a tough job, and I have respect for them," he said. "But I don't worry about them making a living.

"If the pros are telling you how good you're doing, and telling your bosses how good you're doing, there probably needs to be some type of investigation into the bookmaking operation. If you're going out with them after work, it's not a good sign probably."

Walker broke into the business at the Fremont sports book in 1986, spent three years at Sam's Town and was the Stardust sports book director from 1991 to 1996. He replaced Scott Schettler at the Stardust.

At The Mirage sports book, where Walker has been since October 1996, he followed another of Las Vegas' legendary bookmakers, Jimmy Vaccaro.

In the 1970s and even into the mid-1990s, before the explosion of the offshore industry, Las Vegas sports books were more like the anything-goes Wild West. Major wagers easily were approved, and wiseguys most often got what they wanted.

"I'm going to fail in comparison to those guys," Walker said of Schettler and Vaccaro. "They were the high-handle book guys, and they were taking the biggest wagers in the world or in Nevada at that time. We took large wagers, just not from the pros.

"Our primary goal, and that's coming right down from the top, is to accommodate our casino customers. We think we should be able to do so at a profit. If we make it harder for the pros, they'll adapt. The pros are still good. The same guys that were around 20 years ago, they're still doing very well."

It's irony that Walker describes his political views as "very liberal" -- he hopes to soon work in some capacity for Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama's campaign -- but he's labeled a conservative bookmaker unwilling to meet the demands of professionals.

"I've been chastised more than once for Robert being too conservative," said Bill McBeath, president and COO of MGM Mirage CityCenter. "Sometimes I believe he is a little on the conservative side.

"But I think where he's done a wonderful job is balancing the public opinion as it relates to wagering and leveraging the professional gamblers where it benefits us but not providing an edge to the professional gamblers. It is a fine balance, and Robert has done a terrific job."

Walker's approach to handling wiseguys is opposite of the blueprint that bookmakers such as Schettler and Vaccaro laid out. It has brought Walker criticisms, which he deems unfair but unavoidable.

TESTING THE WISEGUYS

In the late 1980s, when Schettler ran the Stardust, Walker estimates the book accounted for almost 20 percent of the state's handle, or total money wagered. It was the hub for professional bettors.

According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, the state's sports book handle was $1.32 billion in 1998. The hold, or win percentage, was 3.2 percent.

"The difference between now and then, it's night and day," Walker said. "The whole state was a low hold. We had a lot of directors who would do anything to get two-way (action), and there was probably higher handle but really low hold percentages.

"I think when I started at the Stardust, we tried to budget 2 percent, and they said, you'll never hit 2 percent because you just can't make that kind of money. When I left in '96, it was three times that, what we had to hold."

The state's handle in 2007 was $2.59 billion, and the hold was 6.5 percent.

"I think that's really how it's changed, how we deal with the professional players in the last 20 years," Walker said. "We just wanted handle, and everybody was handle driven, and I don't know that we understood the dynamics of the pro play. We just wanted to get the handle up there, and even our bosses back then would talk about the handle all the time.

"We don't even talk about handle anymore. It's probably the biggest misnomer in all of sports wagering is the handle itself."

MGM Mirage, with 10 properties on the Strip and two in Reno, accounts for a "significant" percentage of Nevada handle, according to McBeath, who would not release the exact figures.

When faced with a decision on an extraordinarily large wager, Walker often ran it through McBeath for approval.

"A lot of people say, 'We'll take anything from anybody,' and I've seen that model, and what I've seen are really low hold percentages," McBeath said.

The largest wager Walker accepted at The Mirage was on the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002. A casino customer placed a $4.6 million money-line bet on the Rams, who were 14-point favorites and about minus-600 on the money line against the New England Patriots.

McBeath approved the wager, Walker used it to put The Mirage in an enviable position, and the Patriots won the game, 20-17.

"We were actually in a position where we couldn't lose on that game," Walker said. "Obviously, the best-case scenario was the Patriots winning. That was as good a game as we've ever had."

The worst result for The Mirage under Walker's watch was in his first month on the job in November 1996.

Mike Tyson opened as a 25-1 favorite in a heavyweight title fight against Evander Holyfield at the MGM Grand Garden, before the properties consolidated. Holyfield drew heavy action as the underdog, the odds closed at about 6-1, and Holyfield won by 11th-round technical knockout. Walker said the book lost $1.5 million.

"That was the biggest debacle that I've ever been associated with because we lost seven figures on that event, and the worst part was we couldn't even win six figures," Walker said. "We lost so much money our computer couldn't even calculate it. I heard (the MGM Grand) lost two or three times more than we did."

The basis of Walker's theory on how to drive up the hold percentage is to push out the wiseguys, or at least a lot of their action, and he said most sports book directors share his opinion.

"The reality is we would be better off if there's no pro players," Walker said. "That's the problem I've had at the Stardust and here, at least initially when I took over, was dealing with the pro players who felt slighted, to say the least. They think we should take every bet that they want.

"My reputation is a bean counter, which I think is a good thing. But you get labeled afraid to take a bet, and it's not my money. Anybody can take a bet when it's not their money. If you were an illegal bookmaker and all your clientele bet $20, you wouldn't take $20, $20, $20 and $2,000 from a pro. That's ludicrous.

"But what we've done is we've identified the pros -- or do our best to identify them -- and then try to control them but not eliminate them. They have a job to do; we have a job to do."

In general, Walker said, the MGM Mirage wagering limits are $30,000 to $50,000 for NFL sides, $5,000 for major league baseball and the NBA, up to $20,000 on college football and $1,000 to $5,000 on college basketball. Those limits are extended for casino guests.

But identifying the professional gamblers sometimes is a cat-and-mouse game of deception.

"The pros that sneak people in here at night ... our biggest parlay card players the last few years have been elderly women who come in with stacks of cards and play round-robins on games that we're 2-3 points off," Walker said. "It's people that you wouldn't normally associate with taking a shot at you. The pros have gotten to our casino players, and they've tried everything."

BEHIND THE LINES

The movement behind the opening and closing numbers on most games is a deeper mathematical mystery than some might expect. Pros play the market. Bookmakers adjust and try to shift money while settling on one point spread as quickly as possible.

Some bettors make a living middling proposition bets and NBA totals. For the wiseguys, sports wagering involves much more than picking the winner of a game.

"We did a lot of analysis at the Stardust. Every day we did analysis," Walker said. "We recognized through a lot of analysis that the sharp money was the late money. That was the best money. The early money really was just people betting because they see other numbers.

"The pro players, there was a sense of entitlement to them. We were trying to get two-way, and we would do whatever it took to get two-way and hope the number didn't fall, and basically we took on a partner, which is the pro player. I don't think (Schettler) ever had a losing month at the Stardust, but like I said, the hold percentage was very low. It was just a different era back then.

"I think the way we book now, without getting two-way, we have some tremendously bad days. Conversely, we have some great days. We're capable of losing $1 million or winning $1 million on any given day. I think as long as you have a chance to win as much as you can lose or more, then I think that's the right way to go."

Recreational bettors might not notice the changes in Nevada books over the past 20 years, but the environment has hurt wiseguys, many of whom do more of their business offshore.

"The pros are going to complain," Walker said, "but they need to move on because it's never coming back."

CLOSING NUMBER

As he walks out the door into semi-retirement, Walker is sure he will miss some aspects of the job, such as the adrenaline rush of booking NFL games on Sundays.

"I won't miss the losing. I just have never been a good loser," he said. "In this business, you trade money most days. If you look at the end of the year, it's probably 30 days that made your whole year.

"You're never supposed to sweat the money, but I've never been able to stop sweating the money. I think that's really a weakness in this business, but I just can't help it. I'm a little depressed when we lose, and even when we win it's not rewarding because it's never enough. On a day-to-day basis it's a grind. I won't miss sweating out the games."

In that regard, sports betting is as similar for the bookmaker as it is the bettor.

But there are two types of bettors. And while Walker says, "I love this industry, I love this job," no love will be lost between Walker and many wiseguys.

"It's always the good old days, and I'll be a good bookmaker 20 years from now," he said. "People will laugh right now when I say that, but you remember the good old times.

"I think our goal is to put up the number and let the public come in here and have a good time with it. People are so fascinated with professionals, whether it's poker or sports players, but this is entertainment ... these are great places to watch games, and that part, I think, gets lost a little bit."

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.