2018 NFL betting breakdown: Week 13
Colts (6-5) at Jaguars (3-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Colts -4, 47
Analysis: The Jaguars mercifully benched starting QB Blake Bortles and fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett after their seventh consecutive loss last week. Now Cody Kessler gets his chance to guide this anemic offense, but he’ll be without suspended RB Leonard Fournette. The Colts are laying more points in Jacksonville than they did as 3-point home favorites over the Jaguars three weeks ago. But this sure feels like a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions.
By the numbers: Kessler is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS as a starting QB in his career, dating to his time in Cleveland. … Andrew Luck is 11-6-1 ATS in December.
Pick: Colts 27, Jags 13
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Panthers (6-5) at Buccaneers (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -3, 53½
Analysis: There’s a sense of urgency in Carolina after three straight losses, the last two of which were simply excruciating for Panthers bettors. But Jameis Winston delivered his first turnover-free performance of the season last week, and the Tampa Bay defense has played much better in its last two home games than its season statistics would indicate.
By the numbers: The Bucs are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against Carolina. … Cam Newton is 5-0-1 ATS in December after a loss.
Pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 23
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Ravens (6-5) at Falcons (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -1½, 48½
Analysis: The streaky Ravens are on an uptick, coming off back-to-back wins against bottom feeders at home that allowed rookie QB Lamar Jackson to play from ahead. But the Falcons offense remains a truly potent unit, and we expect it to put Jackson in a tough spot.
By the numbers: The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a SU win of more than 14 points. … The Falcons are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the AFC.
Pick: Falcons 27, Ravens 24
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Browns (4-6-1) at Texans (8-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -5½, 47½
Analysis: Since Cleveland dumped Hue Jackson and Todd Haley, Baker Mayfield has blossomed, throwing for nine TDs and one interception in the last three weeks. But legitimate questions persist on whether the Browns can handle success with maturity or are ripe for a letdown after last week’s emotional win at Cincinnati. Houston is in a divisional sandwich, off a big Monday night win and on a short week.
By the numbers: The Texans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 tries as favorites of at least three points.
Pick: Browns 21 Texans 20
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Bills (4-7) at Dolphins (5-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Dolphins -3½, 40
Analysis: Five of Buffalo’s seven losses have been by at least 19 points in games in which the Bills failed to score 10. But they’ve put up 65 points in back-to-back wins and made all the key defensive plays down the stretch in Josh Allen’s return to the lineup last week. Miami got Ryan Tannehill back last week, but fell apart on both sides of the football with a double-digit lead in a 27-24 loss at Indianapolis. The Dolphins are 2-6 since a 3-0 start.
By the numbers: The Bills are 15-2 ATS as road underdogs of at least three points against opponents off back-to-back losses.
Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 16
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Bears (8-3) at Giants (3-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -3½, 44½
Analysis: The Giants entered last week with a legitimate path to the postseason. They closed out the week by blowing a 16-point lead in a loss to the Eagles, essentially clinching last place in the NFC East. Now a weak offensive line and a turnover-prone QB have to take on a defense that leads the NFL in interceptions and forced fumbles.
By the numbers: The Giants are 2-13-1 in their last 16 tries after a cover, including an 0-3-1 ATS record in that role this season. … The Bears have won and covered their last five games.
Pick: Bears 33, Giants 10
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Broncos (5-6) at Bengals (5-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Broncos -5½, 45
Analysis: Jeff Driskel gets his shot at QB for the Bengals. He’s in his third year out of Louisiana Tech but getting his first taste of NFL action. Driskel probably won’t have starting left tackle Jordy Glenn (doubtful) to protect him, but star WR A.J. Green could be back in the lineup. Denver is 3-10 SU on the road in the Vance Joseph era and hasn’t covered a spread of at least four points under Joseph.
By the numbers: The Broncos are on a 6-0 cover streak. … The Bengals are on a 1-5 spread slide.
Pick: Broncos 21, Bengals 19
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Rams (10-1) at Lions (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Rams -10, 55
Analysis: The Lions have stepped up at home, notching impressive upset wins over the Patriots, Panthers and Packers. But Detroit’s skill position talent has been decimated. The Rams are coming off their bye week.
By the numbers: Matthew Stafford is 10-21 ATS in December. … The Rams are 1-5-2 ATS since their 3-0 ATS start.
Pick: Rams 31, Lions 23
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Cardinals (2-9) at Packers (4-6-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -13½, 43½
Analysis: The weather forecast at Lambeau Field isn’t pretty for the team from the desert, and the Cardinals have topped 17 points once in five previous road games. Despite Green Bay’s struggles, it showed the ability to blow out a struggling foe at home when it blasted Miami two weeks ago.
By the numbers: Aaron Rodgers is 14-3 ATS at home in December. … Arizona is 1-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season.
Pick: Packers 30, Cardinals 9
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Chiefs (9-2) at Raiders (2-9)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Chiefs -14, 55
Analysis: Pro Football Focus just named the Raiders’ pass rush the worst in the NFL. In last week’s loss at Baltimore, Oakland gave up a touchdown on offense and another on special teams. It has failed in all three phases of the game in the first season of Jon Gruden’s 10-year contract. But Kansas City just cut star RB Kareem Hunt after a domestic violence incident, a major off-field distraction and on-field loss.
By the numbers: The Chiefs have been stellar in just about every ATS role over the past year and are riding a 12-3-1 cover streak. … Kansas City is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. … The Raiders are on a 1-6 spread skid.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Raiders 17
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Jets (3-8) at Titans (5-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Titans -8, 40½
Analysis: Todd Bowles’ days appear to be numbered in New York, and the Jets haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game since Week 6. New York’s defense hasn’t created a turnover during its five-game losing streak. But Marcus Mariota has been sacked 11 times in back-to-back losses, and the Titans are 0-2 SU as chalk this season.
By the numbers: The Jets are on an 0-4 spread skid on the road and an 0-5 ATS slide overall. … The Titans are on a 12-3-1 ATS run at home.
Pick: Titans 19, Jets 14
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Vikings (6-4-1) at Patriots (8-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Patriots -5½, 49½
Analysis: The Vikings’ defense is more than a half yard per play better than New England’s defense, which has been torched by mediocre offenses such as the Titans and Lions. But the Patriots are expected to have Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel on the field, giving Tom Brady his full complement of weapons.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 regular-season home games, only failing to cover by a half point against the Chiefs. … The Vikings are on a 12-4 cover streak in Weeks 13 to 16.
Pick: Patriots 35, Vikings 25
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49ers (2-9) at Seahawks (6-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -9½, 46
Analysis: Seattle’s betting bandwagon is growing by the week, as it has averaged 27 ppg during a 5-1-1 ATS run. Half of the Seahawks’ six wins have been by double digits, but they haven’t been double-digit chalk since September 2017. The 49ers appear to be more interested in securing the No. 1 overall draft pick than winning games.
By the numbers: Seattle is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and 21-9-1 in its past 31 December games. … The 49ers are tied for the NFL’s worst spread record this season at 3-8.
Pick: Seahawks 27, 49ers 17
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Chargers (8-3) at Steelers (7-3-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Steelers -3½, 52
Analysis: For a December night game in Pittsburgh, weather conditions are expected to be reasonable, with game-time temperatures in the low 50s. The Chargers won’t have star RB Melvin Gordon, but every quote from inside the organization expressed confidence in backup Austin Ekeler. The Steelers should be hungry off their four-turnover debacle in Denver.
By the numbers: The Steelers are on a 6-0 ATS run after a loss. … The Chargers are on an 8-20-1 spread slide after scoring at least 30 points the previous week.
Pick: Steelers 31, Chargers 26
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Redskins (6-5) at Eagles (5-6)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Eagles -6½, 45
Analysis: The Eagles have been favored 10 times this season. They lost five of those games SU and failed to cover in two others. But the Redskins have been decimated by injuries in the last month, losing most of their offensive line, their starting QB and a bevy of skill position talent.
By the numbers: The Redskins are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on “Monday Night Football.” … Philadelphia is riding a 16-4 cover streak on ‘MNF’ and has won and covered its last five Monday games vs. the NFC East.
Pick: Eagles 25, Redskins 20
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