2018 NFL Week 4 betting breakdown
Ted Sevransky, Sportsmemo.com, @teddy_covers
Dolphins (3-0) at Patriots (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Patriots -6½, 48½
Analysis: After two consecutive poorly played road losses, the Patriots return home. But all hands are not on deck for New England’s passing game, with Julian Edelman suspended for one more game and Josh Gordon unlikely to make his debut this week. The Dolphins haven’t lost by less than a touchdown in any game at New England since 2012, and this is a big step up in class from their first three opponents.
By the numbers: The Patriots lost to the Dolphins in Miami in December. … New England is 11-1 ATS at home in single revenge settings. … Tom Brady is 5-0 ATS in his career facing a divisional foe off consecutive defeats.
Pick: Patriots 27, Dolphins 23
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Texans (0-3) at Colts (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Pick, 47
Analysis: Houston isn’t 0-3 by accident. The Texans’ defense allowed Eli Manning to look like a star QB again last week, something Manning hasn’t been in many years. Houston’s running game is nonexistent, with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue combining for 23 yards rushing last week on 14 carries. And the Texans rank No. 28 in red zone efficiency, settling for field goals.
By the numbers: Texans coach Bill O’Brien is 10-5-1 ATS when coming off an ATS loss by a TD or more. … That said, the Texans are 0-7 ATS after their last seven straight-up losses and the Colts are on a 30-11 ATS run against opponents with losing records.
Pick: Colts 19, Texans 13
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Bengals (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -4, 53½
Analysis: The injury bug has hit Atlanta’s defense with a sledgehammer. Pro Bowl safety Keanu Neal suffered a season-ending ACL tear and starting safety Ricardo Allen tore his Achilles. Pro Bowl linebacker Deion Jones went on injured reserve after foot surgery, and defensive ends Takkarist McKinley and Derrick Shelby are dealing with groin injuries. Cincinnati is expected to have a healthy A.J. Green in the lineup.
By the numbers: The Bengals are on an 8-4 cover streak as underdogs.
Pick: Bengals 28, Falcons 27
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Bills (1-2) at Packers (1-1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -9½, 44½
Analysis: The betting markets are unsure about Buffalo, adjusting significantly from a look-ahead line of minus 14½ last week. After all, the Bills were a playoff team last season, their defense stepped up at Minnesota, and rookie QB Josh Allen clearly has some ‘A’ game. But the Packers are coming off a loss and primed to return home to take care of business against a lesser foe.
By the numbers: The Packers haven’t had a win and cover in any game since beating the Browns by six points as 3-point chalk in December. … Green Bay is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 tries off a loss and 2-5 ATS in its past seven home games.
Pick: Green Bay 31, Buffalo 16
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Lions (1-2) at Cowboys (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Cowboys -3, 44
Analysis: Dallas’defense has yet to intercept a pass and will be playing without injured linebacker Sean Lee. The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up with Lee in the lineup over the last two years, but 1-6 when he’s out. Detroit is showing balance on offense, with Kerryon Johnson ending the Lions’ multiyear drought without a 100-yard rusher.
By the numbers: The Lions have two covers in their last 12 tries off a straight-up win of at least 14 points, like the one they had against the Patriots last week.
Pick: Lions 24, Cowboys 17
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Jets (1-2) at Jaguars (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jaguars -7½, 38½
Analysis: After beating the Lions on “Monday Night Football” to open the season, Sam Darnold has faced back-to-back brutal spots: a short week off a big national TV win, then another short week with travel to face a solid defense. This week, at least the rookie QB will have extra prep time, but he’ll be facing an elite defense on the highway. We saw the “bad” Blake Bortles last week, one game removed from the “good” Bortles against the Patriots.
By the numbers: The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS at home after a straight-up loss in which they were held to a TD or less. … Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine tries off any loss. … The Jets have covered three of their last 11 on the road.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Jets 17
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Bucs (2-1) at Bears (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -3, 46½
Analysis: Mitch Trubisky has completed 69 percent of his passes, but he’s averaging 5.6 yards per attempt and has two touchdowns against three interceptions. Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging more than 11 yards per pass attempt, a clear statistical indicator of how good this surprising offense can be.
By the numbers: Tampa Bay is on a 5-0 spread streak as underdogs. … The Bears are on a 2-6 ATS slide as home favorites.
Pick: Bucs 26, Bears 21
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Eagles (2-1) at Titans (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -3½, 42
Analysis: Marcus Mariota isn’t fully healthy, still dealing with the aftereffects of an elbow injury that has been plaguing him for weeks. His backup, Blaine Gabbert, is out with concussion issues. Third-string QB Austin Davis isn’t up to speed. All of this is bad news against the deepest defensive line in the NFL and a healthy Carson Wentz starting to find his rhythm.
By the numbers: The Titans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games with Wentz at QB.
Pick: Eagles 31, Titans 13
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Seahawks (1-2) at Cardinals (0-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -3, 39
Analysis: Josh Rosen gets his first career start, but at least he’s not facing the “Legion of Boom” defense from Seattle’s heyday. The Seahawks’ defense still leads the NFL in interceptions with seven. But no Seattle wideout has 200 receiving yards, and the Cardinals’ defense helped Arizona to a cover last week.
By the numbers: Two long-term leaguewide trends are in play. Teams with a 1-2 record coming off a Week 3 win are 12-32 ATS as favorites in Week 4. And NFL divisional home underdogs that have scored 21 or fewer points in each of their last three games are 71 percent ATS long term.
Pick: Seahawks 17, Cardinals 16
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Browns (1-1-1) at Raiders (0-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Raiders -2½, 44½
Analysis: After the 2008 Detroit Lions went 0-16, they finally snapped their skid in Week 3 of the 2009 season. The following week, Detroit went to Chicago and lost by 24. Baker Mayfield faces the tough task of making his first career start on the road against a desperate foe.
By the numbers: Even with the Browns’ 3-0 ATS record this season, they’re 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games. … The Raiders are 13-30-1 ATS as favorites, including a 1-10 ATS record as chalk off back-to-back losses.
Pick: Raiders 24, Browns 20
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49ers (1-2) at Chargers (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Chargers -10½, 46
Analysis: C.J. Beathard is no Jimmy Garappolo, but he was serviceable for the 49ers last season and there’s ample reason to think he’ll be decent again. But quarterback isn’t the only problem spot for Kyle Shanahan’s injury-riddled squad, and the Niners are catching the Chargers in a grumpy mood off last week’s debacle against the Rams. But Los Angeles still will be playing without key pass rusher Joey Bosa, the type of defender who could give Beathard fits.
By the numbers: Beathard is 3-1 ATS in his career as a starter on the road. … The Chargers are 8-15 ATS as double-digit favorites and 1-5 ATS in their last six tries coming off a loss.
Pick: Chargers 28, 49ers 22
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Saints (2-1) at Giants (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Saints -3½, 52
Analysis: The Saints have one takeaway, a far cry from last season’s surprisingly solid defense. Eli Manning showed that he is still capable of the occasional good game with his stellar showing in Houston.
By the numbers: Home underdogs that are 1-2 and coming off a win – like the Giants — are 18-6-1 ATS in Week 4. … The Saints are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Pick: Saints 31, Giants 23
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Ravens (2-1) at Steelers (1-1-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Steelers -3, 50½
Analysis: The Steelers scored 17 points off four consecutive Tampa Bay turnovers Monday night, but barely hung on for the win after Ben Roethlisberger got shut down after halftime. Pittsburgh’s locker room chemistry issues are still a concern, as is a defense that has been burned for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens lead the NFL in red zone offensive efficiency and yards allowed per pass attempt (5.1).
By the numbers: The Ravens have covered four straight in Pittsburgh, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. … The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games overall.
Pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 23
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Chiefs (3-0) at Broncos (2-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Chiefs -4, 55
Analysis: The betting markets aren’t quite willing to accept Patrick Mahomes as the second coming of Joe Montana just yet. Sharp bettors pounded the under vs. the Niners last week, but it was a losing wager, as Mahomes continued to light up opposing defenses.
By the numbers: The Chiefs have won and covered five straight against the Broncos, but Denver is on a 6-2 ATS surge as a home underdog. … Kansas City is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games. … The Chiefs have gone over in all three games by double-digit margins.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Broncos 27
