2018 NFL Week 5 betting breakdown
Lee Sterling, ParamountSports.com, @paramountsports
Ravens (3-1) at Browns (1-2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -3, 45½
Analysis: To beat the Ravens defense, you need an experienced QB that has seen all the blitz packages they employ and a slew of WRs that can either beat press coverage or read where the holes are in the zone. Baltimore also gets CB Jimmy Smith back from suspension. Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield is going to have his ups and downs, and this could be one of those down days. Cleveland third-year WR Rashard Higgins and rookie wideout Antonio Calloway aren’t quite ready for these types of sophisticated defenses.
By the numbers: The Browns have hung around in most games because they are plus 7 in turnover ratio. That number should slip with Mayfield inserted as the starting QB. … The Ravens are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. AFC North opponents.
Pick: Ravens 24, Browns 13
Jaguars (3-1) at Chiefs (4-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -3, 49
Analysis: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes faced one of the most sophisticated defenses with a top-level pass rush last week in Denver and didn’t flinch. His last two drives were the stuff legends are made of. The Jacksonville defense is one of the top three units in the NFL, but this high-scoring Kansas City offense, averaging 36 ppg, won’t be shut down.
By the numbers: The Jaguars are 1-7 vs. the AFC West in the last eight meetings. … The Chiefs are on an 8-0 ATS run.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24
Titans (3-1) at Bills (1-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -5½, 39
Analysis: I don’t think the Titans are as good as their 3-1 record. I also don’t think the Bills are doomed to win only two or three games. I doubt that Marcus Mariota teams up with second-year wideouts Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor close to the 16 times he did last week.
By the numbers: Rarely are all the games played by a team decided by double digits, but all of Buffalo’s games this season — win or lose — have been decided in blowout fashion.
Pick: Titans 20, Bills 17
Giants (1-3) at Panthers (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -6, 43½
Analysis: I guess the thinking in the Giants’ camp was if the team drafted RB Saquon Barkley, the running game would allow QB Eli Manning to have more time to throw in play action and the offense would be fixed. But the offensive line remains the biggest problem, as Jon Halapio is lost for the season with an ankle injury and 2015 first-round pick Ereck Flowers is still perfecting the lookout block.
By the numbers: The Giants’ offense has been putrid. It has been limited to fewer than 18 points in 11 of its last 14 games. … Carolina has the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense, powered by Christian McCaffrey, who had a career-high 184 rushing yards in the Panthers’ win over Cincinnati.
Pick: Panthers 27, Giants 13
Broncos (2-2) at Jets (1-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Pick, 42½
Analysis: As good as the Denver defense is, QB Case Keenum might not be the right fit, as he’s thrown six interceptions in four games. The Jets don’t have many stars on defense, but they rarely bust a coverage. New York’s ball-hawking secondary might be the difference in a game that could be decided by one big play either way.
By the numbers: Broncos coach Vance Joseph is 1-8 on the road. … The Jets are averaging 19.8 ppg, and that includes their 48-point explosion in Week 1.
Pick: Jets 20, Broncos 16
Falcons (1-3) at Steelers (1-2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -3½, 58
Analysis: The Falcons keep taking hits on the defensive side of the ball, as they lost two safeties for the season as well as their best linebacker and DT Grady Jarrett. I doubt that the Steelers make the playoffs, but they have a prolific offense and this game is played on grass, an off surface for the Falcons. Just because Atlanta’s offense has played well in the last two games doesn’t mean it has solved its red zone problems.
By the numbers: The Falcons have scored more than 30 points in each of their last three games but have only one win to show for all that offense. … Even though Atlanta’s defense appeared to have ample depth going into the season, it has allowed 403.5 yards per game and 30.5 ppg.
Pick: Steelers 33, Falcons 27
Packers (2-1-1) at Lions (1-3)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Pick, 51
Analysis: I’m not sure what is worse, the all-gray outfits worn by the Lions or the throwback Packers uniforms. If not for Aaron Rodgers’ incredible comeback in Week 1 against Chicago, the Packers would be 1-2-1. Detroit has an underrated WR trio of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay that could do damage against a rebuilt Packers secondary.
By the numbers: The underdog is 4-0 ATS in Detroit’s games. … The Packers were on a 0-6 ATS skid until their shutout win last week over Buffalo.
Pick: Lions 31, Packers 28
Dolphins (3-1) at Bengals (3-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bengals -6, 48½
Analysis: The Dolphins are 3-1, but they have been outgained by 438 yards. They will be without Bobby McClain, their best slot CB, and are down to four defensive linemen who made their roster in Week 1. With Bengals RB Joe Mixon due back, Cincinnati’s offense should have enough balance and quick-strike capability to play with the lead and keep the Dolphins defense off balance.
By the numbers: Not many good signs for the Dolphins last week, as QB Ryan Tannehill threw for 100 yards against the Patriots before he was replaced. … Miami finished with 172 total yards against New England.
Pick: Bengals 28, Dolphins 17
Raiders (1-3) at Chargers (2-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Chargers -5½, 52½
Analysis: The Raiders finally won a game last week, but it was gifted to them by the referees. Oakland’s offensive line appears to be leaking with no hope for fixing that problem this season. The line has allowed six sacks in the last two weeks in games vs. Miami and Cleveland. The Chargers are giving up 30 ppg, but have faced the top two offenses in the league in the Rams and Chiefs. Don’t let those numbers sway you on the wrong side of this game.
By the numbers: The Raiders’ top two receiving targets, Jared Cook and Amari Cooper, had more than 100 receiving yards in the same game for the first time this season. … Philip Rivers is having another under-the-radar great season with 11 TD passes against two interceptions.
Pick: Chargers 42, Raiders 14
Cardinals (0-4) at 49ers (1-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: 49ers -3, 40
Analysis: If you watch more than a series of this game, you are either a big fan of one of the two teams or you bet on the game. San Francisco has scored 13 or fewer points in four of QB C.J. Beathard’s six career starts.
By the numbers: The reason the Cardinals will be an underdog is they rank last in almost all of the major offensive categories. … The under is 14-6 in Arizona games since the start of 2017.
Pick: Cardinals 14, 49ers 13
Vikings (1-2-1) at Eagles (2-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Eagles -3, 46½
Analysis: Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins isn’t the reason the Vikings have a losing record. The offensive line lacks talent, and the defensive line is having trouble getting pressure on the QB, exposing the secondary on many long passes. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz seems to be close to 100 percent, and Alshon Jeffery, his top WR, came back last week and looked in midseason form with eight catches for 105 yards and a TD.
By the numbers: The Eagles are on a 7-2 ATS run vs. the Vikings. … Minnesota’s offensive line has surrendered 13 sacks.
Pick: Eagles 27, Vikings 20
Rams (4-0) at Seahawks (2-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -7½, 50
Analysis: Seattle needs long, time-consuming drives to score most of its touchdowns. The Rams have quick-strike capability with deep threat wide receivers Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Those three receivers have combined for 74 catches and eight TDs. They also plugged in Sam Shields at cornerback after the loss of Aqib Talib for the season, and he looks as if he might be headed back to the Pro Bowl.
By the numbers: The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. … Seattle is on a 3-15 ATS slide in October after coming off a straight-up win vs. a division opponent.
Pick: Rams 34, Seahawks 20
Cowboys (2-2) at Texans (1-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Texans -3½, 45½
Analysis: Teams won’t win many games in the new NFL without a strong passing game. Dak Prescott had his first 200-yard passing game of the season last week. Texans QB Deshaun Watson seems to be rounding into shape, throwing for 375 yards and two TDs in a win last week in Indianapolis. He also wasn’t afraid to run for the first time this season, netting 41 yards.
By the numbers: Houston has surrendered 17 sacks. … The Texans are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.
Pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 20
Redskins (2-1) at Saints (3-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Saints -6, 53
Analysis: It appears the only way the Saints will win most games are in shootouts, as their defense is allowing more than 300 yards passing per game. With the loss of slot cornerback Patrick Robinson, the Saints defensive stats could fall even further. The Redskins’ defense is underrated, giving up 14.7 PPG.
By the numbers: Saints opponents have a combined 5-10-1 record. … New Orleans’ defense is giving up 30.2 ppg.
Pick: Redskins 31, Saints 28
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