2018 NFL Week 6 betting breakdown
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Kellen, @SixthSenseNFL, SixthSenseSports.com
Vikings (2-2-1) at Cardinals (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -10, 44
Analysis: Arizona beat the 49ers 28-18 last week but it was a very deceiving victory. They were outgained 447-220 yards by San Francisco and other than a 75-yard touchdown pass on its initial drive, Arizona averaged just 3.6 yards per pass and 3.0 yards per play. The Cardinals were plus-five in turnovers, including a fumble recovery for a TD. They also caused two more turnovers that turned into 14 more points on drives of 26 yards or less. In other words, their offense did almost nothing.
By the numbers: Mike Zimmer is now 15-3 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite. … The Vikings are on a 13-1 under streak as double-digit home favorites.
Pick: Vikings 27, Cardinals 13
Chargers (3-2) at Browns (2-2-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Browns -1, 46
Analysis: The Chargers’ offense has been very good this year, averaging 8.0 yards per pass, but their defense is allowing 7.6 ypp. Cleveland’s offense has improved dramatically with Baker Mayfield at QB. Mayfield has averaged 6.8 ypp and the Browns’ offense has been above average since allowing him to start. But Cleveland’s defense is the difference maker, allowing only 6.0 yards per pass. Home-field advantage with the much better defense and just needing to win this game makes this a solid play on Cleveland, which could easily be 5-0.
By the numbers: Cleveland has covered each of the last three years against the Chargers, including a 20-17 home win in 2016 for their only victory of the season. … The Browns are on an 18-3 under streak at home.
Pick: Browns 27, Chargers 20
Bears (3-1) at Dolphins (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -3.5, 41.5
Analysis: The Bears are coming off their bye week, which followed a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay. Miami blew a 17-0 lead last week at Cincinnati, allowing two defensive TDs en route to a 27-17 loss. Miami is down two offensive line starters for the season and still missing Cameron Wake on defense. Chicago failed to cover earlier this season at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite, winning by two.
By the numbers: Road teams off 20-plus point wins don’t perform well. But road favorites of at least three points off their bye week are on a 45-17 ATS run. … Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is 8-1 in his last nine home games.
Pick: Dolphins 21, Bears 19
Panthers (3-1) at Redskins (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -1, 44.5
Analysis: Washington returns home after being dominated by the Saints in a 43-19 loss on Monday night. The Redskins allowed New Orleans to average 11.3 ypp. Carolina comes off a 33-31 victory at home over the lowly Giants, needing a 63-yard field goal as time expired. This will be only the second road game of the season for Carolina, which lost 31-24 at Atlanta earlier this year. If the Redskins’ defense has any pride, it will show up this week after being called out by former Washington players.
By the numbers: Washington is on an 8-4 ATS surge as a home underdog. … Carolina is on a 2-7-1 spread slide as a road favorite.
Pick: Redskins 24, Panthers 21
Colts (1-4) at Jets (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jets -1.5, 46.5
Analysis: The Jets dominated Denver in last week’s 34-16 home win, rushing for 323 yards and averaging 8.4 yards per play. Indianapolis lost at New England, 38-24, and had more injuries than slots available for inactive players. They still have a ton of injuries.
By the numbers: The Jets are on an 8-3 ATS streak at home. … The Colts have scored at least 20 points in 29 of the 37 games Andrew Luck has quarterbacked on the road. But Indianapolis’ defense has allowed at least 20 points in 26 of those 37 games.
Pick: Jets 24, Colts 21
Steelers (2-2-1) at Bengals (4-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bengals -1.5, 50.5
Analysis: Cincinnati was fortunate to win and cover in last week’s 27-17 win over the Dolphins, using two defensive scores to help erase a 17-0 deficit. Pittsburgh got back on track with last week’s 41-17 victory over a decimated Atlanta defense. The Steelers have been limited to 21 points or less against the best defenses they have faced this year in Cleveland and Baltimore while scoring at least 30 points against the worst defenses they’ve faced. Cincinnati’s defense should land them somewhere in between those numbers.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh is riding a 12-3-2 ATS streak in Cincinnati. … Only three of the last 17 meetings topped 48 points. The Steelers are on a 22-8 under run on the road.
Pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 23
Buccaneers (2-2) at Falcons (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -3, 57
Analysis: Two bad defenses. One defense, Tampa Bay, is just simply bad. The other defense, Atlanta, has injuries at all three levels of its defense. Both of these teams have allowed at least 30 points in each game this season.
By the numbers: Four of the last five meetings in Atlanta have totaled at least 54 points.
Pick: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 30
Seahawks (2-3) vs. Raiders (1-4), at London
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Seahawks -2.5, 48.5
Analysis: Seattle got it going in last week’s 33-31 home loss to the Rams. It rushed for 190 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per rush and 8.0 yards per pass. Derek Carr continues to turn the ball over for the Raiders, who continue to move the ball up and down the field but can’t score and finish drives.
By the numbers: Oakland has topped 20 points just once this year. … The Raiders have allowed at least 26 points in four of their five games this season.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Raiders 24
Bills (2-3) at Texans (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -10, 40
Analysis: Buffalo can’t run the ball, averaging only 3.5 yards per rush. They can’t throw the ball, either, averaging 3.7 yards pass. But they can play defense. Houston is averaging 7.3 yards per pass but has trouble scoring points. The Texans had three drives end inside the 5-yard line last week with field goals and another drive inside the 5 end on downs. They are 31st in red zone scoring percentage.
By the numbers: Buffalo is on a 7-3 under run as a road underdog. … Houston is on a 3-7 spread skid as a home favorite. … The Texans have scored more than 22 points just once this year.
Pick: Texans 24, Bills 16
Rams (5-0) at Broncos (2-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -7, 51.5
Analysis: The Rams escaped with a 33-31 victory in Seattle last week. But there are some leaks in their defense. They allowed Seattle to rush for 190 yards. Denver was crushed by the Jets on the road but they are a completely different team at home. Both of these teams allow more than five yards per rush and they both run the ball well.
By the numbers: Denver is on a 7-2 spread surge as a home underdog. … The Rams are on an 8-2 over uptick on the road, scoring at least 27 points in nine of the 10 games.
Pick: Rams27, Broncos 23
Jaguars (3-2) at Cowboys (2-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Jaguars -3, 40
Analysis: Jacksonville, which had five turnovers last week at Kansas City, had the ball inside the Chiefs’ 20 four times where they turned it over on downs or interceptions. Dallas can’t score. It scored one TD last week at Houston and that came on a drive that started at the Texans’ 16-yard line following a turnover.
By the numbers: Jacksonville has allowed an average of 12 points to the below-average offenses it has faced this year. Dallas has only topped 20 points once this season.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Cowboys 14
Ravens (3-2) at Titans (3-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -2.5, 41.5
Analysis: Baltimore lost 12-9 in OT last week at Cleveland. Tennessee lost 13-12 at Buffalo as a road favorite. The Titans are dead last in the league in generating passing plays of 20 yards or more. This is the third straight road game for Baltimore. Teams that won at least one of the previous two road games and didn’t go 0-2 ATS in those games are on a 33-62-2 spread slide. Tennessee qualifies in a home underdog situation that plays on teams coming off a loss as a favorite that is 86-50-9 ATS.
By the numbers: Tennessee is on a 4-0 ATS surge as a home underdog. … The Ravens are on a 3-8-1 spread slide as a road favorite.
Pick: Ravens 21, Titans 20
Chiefs (5-0) at Patriots (3-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Patriots -3.5, 59.5
Analysis: The Pats are starting to get their offense rolling with Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski all getting acquainted with one another. New England has scored 27 or more in each home game this year, including 38 in each of its last two. Kansas City also has scored at least 27 points in every game this season. The Chiefs will try to extend their win and cover streak to six games this season. They opened the 2017 season with a 42-27 victory at New England.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 18-4-3 ATS as home favorites of seven points or less since 2013. … Kansas City is on a 7-1 ATS run as a road underdog and has a 6-2 over mark in those games. … The Chiefs are 18-7 ATS their last 25 road games as both a favorite and an underdog. … When the Patriots faced similar types of quarterbacks to Patrick Mahomes last season — Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton — the totals averaged 67 points.
Pick: Patriots 35, Chiefs 31
49ers (1-4) at Packers (2-2-1)
Time: Monday 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Line/Total: Packers -9.5, 46.5
Analysis: Both teams had misleading scores last week, with Arizona scoring 17 of its 28 points against the Niners after turnovers. The Packers fell behind 24-0 before they knew what hit them in Detroit, which scored 17 points on drives of 29 yards or less, including two drives that literally went one yard each. Green Bay never punted in the game as kicker Mason Crosby missed four FGs and an extra point.
By the numbers: The 49ers have allowed at least 24 points in every game this season. .. The Packers have scored at least 22 points in every home game this year. … Green Bay is on a 6-0 under run as a home favorite of more than seven points.
Pick: Packers 26, 49ers 17
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