2018 NFL Week 7 betting breakdown

Titans (3-3) vs. Chargers (4-2), at London

Time: 6:30 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Chargers -6½, 45

Analysis: Tennessee was shut out at home and gave up 11 sacks to Baltimore last week. However, more often than not, the best thing for a team to do off a poor performance at home is to go on the road. The market is down on the Titans after that debacle but they’ve been within one score in every other game this season. The Chargers, especially at less than 7, will surely get the public play. It looks like they’re on a roll but we’ve seen this movie many times. Every time the Chargers gain prosperity, they find a way to dwindle it away.

By the numbers: The Titans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 away games. … The Chargers are 10-1 SU and 9-1 ATS vs. Tennessee.

Pick: Titans 27, Chargers 24

———

Patriots (4-2) at Bears (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Patriots -3, 49

Analysis: The Patriots beat the Chiefs in the “show them who’s boss” game. But this line not being more than 3 shows there are some sharp bettors that believe this is a prime letdown spot for New England. It also could be a bit of a leap of faith to back Chicago, which allowed 31 points to backup QB Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that if Osweiler can tear up the Bears defense for 541 yards (380 passing), then what can Tom Brady do? However, we know that it’s rarely as cut and dry in the NFL as the Sunday morning pregame coffee klatches make it out to be.

By the numbers: The Bears are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 home games. … Chicago is on a 7-0 under run at home in October.

Pick: Patriots 23, Bears 20

———

Browns (2-3) at Buccaneers (2-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -3½, 51½

Analysis: Baker Mayfield has come back to earth the last two games and has looked every bit the rookie with seven turnovers in his three starts. That said, this could be a get-right game for him as the Bucs rank No. 31 in total defense (439.8 yards per game) and dead last in scoring defense (34.6 points per game). Jameis Winston played fairly solid in his return as starting QB but needs to cut down on his turnovers. The Bucs would get my lean but the over looks like the best play here.

By the numbers: The over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay games this season. … The Browns are on a 7-3 over run on the road.

Pick: Bucs 31, Browns 24

———

Lions (2-3) at Dolphins (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Lions -3, 46½

Analysis: The Lions are coming off a bye and looking to put a damper on “Brocktober” in Miami. There doesn’t seem to be much of a drop-off between Osweiler and Ryan Tannehill at QB for the Dolphins. Osweiler is only 14-12 as a career starter but had his best numbers with Adam Gase in Denver and knows this offense. Nevertheless, the question remains how he will perform knowing he will be starting all week versus last Sunday, when he got the late call from the bullpen.

By the numbers: Detroit is on a 4-0 cover streak and riding a 6-3-1 ATS surge on the road. … The Lions have a 4-1 over-under record this season and the last four meetings have gone over.

Pick: Lions 20, Dolphins 17

———

Panthers (3-2) at Eagles (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Eagles -5, 44½

Analysis: Carolina is the quintessential “box of chocolates” team: You never know what you’re gonna get. The Eagles looked like they got a little right last week pummeling the Giants, but how much can you take from that victory over a team that seemingly has a divided locker room since Odell Beckham Jr. went all diva wide receiver. The Panthers are so unpredictable and I’m not yet convinced the Eagles are even close to being back to Super Bowl-contending form.

By the numbers: Philadelphia is on a 14-6-1 cover streak at home. … The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Pick: Eagles 23, Panthers 17

———

Bills (2-4) at Colts (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Colts -7½, 43

Analysis: The Bills turn to Derek Anderson to salvage something of this season. The betting market seems very optimistic that Buffalo has upgraded under center and it has the potential look of a trendy underdog pick. The Bills defense ranks No. 3 in the league but that’s slightly misleading considering their last two games were against two sputtering offenses in Tennessee and Houston. The injury-riddled Colts are a better team this year despite their record. Considering Andrew Luck is throwing around 10,000 times per game, his shoulder seems to be fine. He gets T.Y. Hilton back, which at least gives him a proven target. Indianapolis is in the favorite role for the first time all year and laying more than 7 to boot. Something stinks with this line, but sometimes as a bettor you have to be willing to go where the stink is.

By the numbers: The Bills are on an 8-4 under run. … The Colts are on a 5-2 under surge at home. … The under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.

Pick: Colts 24, Bills 14

———

Vikings (3-2-1) at Jets (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Vikings -3½, 46

Analysis: After an inexplicable blowout loss at home to Buffalo, Minnesota suffered a respectable loss to the Rams followed by two straight wins. The Vikings seem to have steadied an early shaky ship, as have the Jets, who are looking to close out a 3-0 homestand. But New York won’t find scoring as easy as they did against Denver and Indianapolis the last two weeks. The best play here looks like the under.

By the numbers: The Vikings are on a 12-3-2 cover streak overall and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine away games. … Minnesota is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against the Jets.

Pick: Vikings 23, Jets 16

———

Texans (3-3) at Jaguars (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jaguars -4, 41

Analysis: A very convincing argument can be made that Houston should be 0-6 and coach Bill O’Brien should be looking over a severance package. The Texans won two straight OT games and then needed a Nathan Peterman pick-six to squeak by Buffalo last week. Nevertheless, they are 3-3, tied for the division lead and essentially playing with house money considering their quality of play through six weeks. Jacksonville relished the role of the rising team last year. But this year, it has not looked comfortable in the role of the prohibitive favorite. Moreover, the Jaguars’ highly touted defense has given up an average of more than 400 yards the last two weeks to explosive Kansas City (no shame in that), but also to sputtering Dallas.

By the numbers: The Texans are on a 7-13 spread slide as underdogs. … Road teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 16

———

Saints (4-1) at Ravens (4-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Ravens -2½, 49½

Analysis: If there is a fly in the ointment of a projected Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship game, it’s Baltimore. The Ravens have the clear No. 1 defense in the NFL (270.8 ypg). It will get tested this week against the Saints’ No. 3 offense (424 ypg). New Orleans is clearly getting respect from the oddsmakers as less than 3-point underdogs. But this has the looks of a contrarian favorite that gets home.

By the numbers: Baltimore has won and covered both home games this season. … The Saints are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games vs. the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens 27, Saints 21

———

Cowboys (3-3) at Redskins (3-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Redskins -1, 41½

Analysis: The Cowboys come off their best performance of the season with a dominant 40-7 win over Jacksonville. But the question remains whether they can bottle that and take it on the road with them. Thus far, Dallas’ 29th-ranked offense is averaging only 12.3 ppg away from home. Alex Smith hasn’t been bad as Washington’s new QB, but he’s been just kind of meh. With so many questions yet to be answered from both teams, the best play may just be the under.

By the numbers: The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. … Underdogs are 31-10 ATS in the last 41 meetings. … The Cowboys are on a 7-0 under run on the road with QB Dak Prescott.

Pick: Cowboys 17, Redskins 16

———

Rams (6-0) at 49ers (1-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Rams -9½, 49½

Analysis: The NFC favorite Rams are on the road for the third straight week. You have to wonder if they are a bit road weary already. They’re on an 0-2-1 spread skid so they are already priced to the moon. The Niners are trying to find a way to bounce back from Monday night’s loss in Green Bay, a game they should’ve won outright. The price probably dictates which side I’d prefer. If it’s 10 or more, the Niners have value but at less than 10, you have to prefer the Rams.

By the numbers: The Rams are on a 10-6-1 regular season cover streak. … L.A. is on a 7-3-1 regular season over run and the Niners are on an 8-1-1 over uptick.

Pick: Rams 31, 49ers 20

———

Bengals (4-2) at Chiefs (5-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Chiefs -6, 58½

Analysis: Last week, the Bengals did what they normally do as they found a way to blow a game against the Steelers. The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season in New England, but improved to 6-0 ATS and proved they’re for real. Nonetheless, they aren’t priced through the roof like the Rams are. They are less than a TD favorite against a Cincinnati team off yet another disappointment. Why aren’t they laying 7? I think this is a case of the oddsmakers telling you whom they think is the right side here.

By the numbers: The Chiefs are on an 8-2 ATS run as home chalk. … The Bengals are on a 9-4-1 cover streak as underdogs. … The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.

Pick: Bengals 33, Chiefs 30

———

Giants (1-5) at Falcons (2-4)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Falcons -4, 54

Analysis: We have a real barnburner on Monday night with a 1-5 Giants team facing a 2-4 Atlanta team. Both teams allowed more than 30 points last week and it’s a prime-time game, so the over looks logical but almost looks too easy. This could be a spot to go contrarian and take the under.

By the numbers: The under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. … Atlanta is on an 8-1-1 under streak vs. New York.

Pick: Falcons 26, Giants 20

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