Big games will separate contenders from pretenders

If the past two weeks seemed short on big games, everything is about to change. It’s time for conference rivalries, and that means the college football season is going to get seriously entertaining.

This is when we see separation between the contenders and pretenders.

I’ll break down four key games for Saturday and predict which teams are the real deal.

■ Texas A&M at Mississippi State (-2½): When the new power rankings came out this week on ESPN, I had to scoff. It was pretty comical to see the Aggies at No. 5. Why? Is it because they escaped against an Arkansas team that handed them the win on a silver platter? Is it because they beat up South Carolina in the season opener? None of that is enough evidence for me to say Texas A&M is a real title contender.

I was on the Bulldogs in their upset at Louisiana State, and Mississippi State controlled that game most of the way. If the Bulldogs can contain Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill, they should prevail. Hill is a rising star. But neither team will be able to punch a ticket to the four-team College Football Playoff because there’s tough road ahead in the Southeastern Conference.

■ Baylor (-15) at Texas: If you’ve watched the Longhorns, you know it’s a team in shambles. First-year coach Charlie Strong is making big changes in Austin during a rebuilding year of sorts. Strong lost quarterback David Ash to health concerns, and it seems another player leaves or gets suspended every week.

Texas got blown out 41-7 at home by Brigham Young, was competitive in a loss to UCLA and rebounded by beating an awful Kansas team last week.

On the other hand, Bears coach Art Briles is a bettor’s dream. He keeps his foot on the gas the entire game and isn’t afraid to gamble on fourth downs on his side of the field. I expect Baylor, 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread, to coast through this game and its next home game versus Texas Christian. The big test for Baylor comes Nov. 8 at Oklahoma. For now, there is no doubt quarterback Bryce Petty and the Bears are for real.

■ Stanford (-2½) at Notre Dame: According to my numbers, the Fighting Irish were going to struggle against Syracuse last week. Boy, was I wrong. Everett Golson completed 25 straight passes and had his way with the Orange defense. But the Irish had problems with turnovers, and they need to clean up those issues against a strong Stanford defense.

My line shows the Cardinal by 7. Notre Dame is about to be revealed as a pretender.

■ Wisconsin (-8) at Northwestern: After blowing a second-half lead in a season-opening loss to LSU, the Badgers’ playoff hopes appeared to be dead. Wisconsin has since feasted on three cupcakes (Western Illinois, Bowling Green and South Florida) to make a minor statement.

Badgers coach Gary Andersen is another of my favorites because he likes to cover the number. I don’t see the Wildcats with much of a chance of pulling the upset. Look for Wisconsin to put away Northwestern late and coast through a relatively easy schedule to the Big Ten title game.

Hottie threesome

Each week, I recommend three underdogs to win outright. I call it my “Hottie threesome,” and I also parlay the teams on the money line (Home team in CAPS):

■ Memphis (+4) over CINCINNATI — Bearcats quarterback Gunner Kiel, a Notre Dame transfer, has 14 touchdown passes in three games. But he’s facing a tough Memphis defense that has forced 10 turnovers and controlled Mississippi for three quarters last week. The Tigers are 3-1 ATS and have a quality quarterback of their own in Paxton Lynch.

■ KENTUCKY (+4) over South Carolina — The Gamecocks were upset at home by Missouri last week, and coach Steve Spurrier should be on upset alert again. In his second season, coach Mark Stoops is turning the Wildcats (3-1) into a dangerous team. Kentucky was a 21-point underdog in a 35-28 loss at South Carolina last year.

■ COLORADO (+6½) over Oregon State — Almost everyone was betting against the Buffaloes last week, but they covered easily in a 59-56 double-overtime loss at California. Sefo Liufau passed for 455 yards and seven touchdowns for Colorado, which has an improving offense and a good shot to upset a mediocre Beavers team in Boulder.

NFL best bet

■ WASHINGTON (+7) over Seattle — The perception of how bad the Redskins are is exaggerated after Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions in a 45-14 loss to the New York Giants on Sept. 25. Cousins will play better, and Washington will bounce back after a poor showing. I like to play prime-time home ’dogs, so I expect the Redskins to show up Monday.

Kelly Stewart of Kellyinvegas.com can be reached at Askkelly@reviewjournal.com. Follow her on Twitter: @kellyinvegas.