California Chrome is the ‘underdog’

Today is Coronation Day for California Chrome.

Wait, it’s not called that? You could have fooled me.

California Chrome is running in the Belmont Stakes and attempting to become thoroughbred racing’s 12th Triple Crown winner and the first in 36 years, and listening to most people you’d think he was already in the winner’s circle posing for photos.

I’m as much of a horse racing fan as the next guy, having worked for 20 years for the Daily Racing Form — the “Horseplayer’s Bible” for generations of fans and bettors — and a fan since the 1970s, when we were spoiled with three Triple Crown winners in six years — Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977 and Affirmed in 1978.

I’d love to see a Triple Crown winner for the good of the sport — though I’m skeptical it would result in much more than a short-term spike in overall popularity with the public, but that’s a column for another day.

But I’m here to offer the contrarian view. Call me a spoilsport, a party pooper, a kill-joy, whatever you prefer. As great as it would be to witness history, that’s not the way to bet.

No matter how much of a favorite California Chrome becomes, he’s an underdog when you consider he’s racing not only against the other 10 entrants but also against history. Since Affirmed swept the Triple Crown in 1978, there have been 12 horses that won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with just the Belmont standing in the way, and all have come up short, burning a lot of betting tickets along the way.

The reasons for this are plentiful, as it’s no small feat for a racehorse to win three races in five weeks on three tracks at three distances. The Belmont is especially tough, as it’s a 1½-mile race, a distance that today’s horses aren’t bred for, and it’s the first time any of these 3-year-olds have raced this far, and it’s likely none will run this distance again. Besides, the Derby-Preakness winner has to take on fresh horses that haven’t run every Triple Crown race.

I can already hear the masses sticking up for California Chrome: “He’s won six straight races and looking more impressive each time.” “He’s beaten most of these horses already.” “He’s head and withers above this class.”

But, believe me, similar things were said about most of the others in this same position. I’ll Have Another was scratched the day before the Belmont two years ago, but six others went off as odds-on favorites (odds of less than even money), including Smarty Jones in 2004 and Big Brown in 2008, who were 1-5 and considered (horse)shoe-ins.

I’ve had a lot of success betting against these horses going for the Triple Crown — most notably with Lemon Drop Kid in 1999 and Birdstone in 2004 — but even in years that I didn’t cash a ticket, the fact that the Derby and Preakness winner failed to reach the winner’s circle reinforced my belief that I was betting the right way.

One of these years, a horse will complete the Triple Crown, and I’ll be among the first to applaud the accomplishment, but here’s my Belmont picks as we try to find to find the right combination to cash today:

■ 1. Samraat (No. 7) came up short in the Derby, but he can turn the tables here with the added rest. It also helps that he’s a New York-based horse and has won over the track. He might inherit the lead, which would be OK as long as he doesn’t go too fast too early, but he does his best running with horses alongside him. I’m going to love my chances, especially at 20-1, at the top of the stretch.

■ 2. Tonalist (No. 11) is the X-factor, as we don’t know how good he is because he was taken off the Derby trail with a lung infection this year, but came back with a vengeance by winning the Peter Pan over this dirt course, albeit a sloppy track, four weeks ago. If he’s on an upward swing, he’s a major danger.

■ 3. California Chrome (No. 2) doesn’t need me making a case for him. The question now is whether we use him with our top choices and accept that the payoffs will be lower, or if we toss him and go for the gusto. I’ll do a little of both, though I won’t use him on top.

■ OTHER LONG SHOTS TO CONSIDER: Besides Samraat, I give a chance to General a Rod (No. 10) and Commissioner (No. 8) as possible upsetters. I’ll be using exactas, trifectas and superfectas with my other price horses, and possibly to win if they get ignored and their odds skyrocket.

General a Rod keeps finding trouble and hasn’t had a chance to run his best race – and hopefully can avoid traffic in this smaller field – while Commissioner has the best distance breeding and has the excuse of losing to Tonalist on a speed-favoring track. He could be the Sarava/Birdstone type of late-running upsetter.

Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book beat since 1998 for Gaming Today, Daily Racing Form and now for ESPN.com. Tuley also has his own website, ViewFromVegas.com, and can be followed on Twitter @ViewFromVegas.