Dale Earnhardt Jr. learned from best, dominates at Talladega

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished second three times in nine races, and despite no victories, he has the fattest resume of any driver to win today’s Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Earnhardt, who has a series-leading six wins and 960 laps led in 32 Talladega starts, is a 4-1 favorite at William Hill sports books. Only one other driver, Jimmie Johnson at 15-2, has single-digit odds.

His father won a track-record 10 times. From the moment in 2000 that The Intimidator’s son stepped into a Cup car on the 2.66-mile monstrous layout, he’s been one of the best at maneuvering through the draft. It’s in his blood. No one else got the lessons that Junior got from Senior on how to work the air.

Those skills have helped him win three of the past nine restrictor-plate races. Another factor is he has lots of friends on the track. He’s respected by his colleagues, and everyone wants the chance to follow him, knowing he’s going to get toward the front. They all want to beat him, but they know they have a better chance for success by hanging with him.

What’s amazing about Earnhardt being such a big favorite is that up to 35 drivers can win as opposed to about 10 in the 32 races on other types of tracks. That’s why the likes of Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, who have combined to win the past four races, are each at 12-1 odds. Talladega is volatile with more random wrecks wiping out unsuspecting drivers, which makes the ratings less true, with the exception of Earnhardt Jr.

JUNIOR USING ‘AMELIA’

When a team names a car, you know they’re pretty happy with it, and the No. 88 team beams with confidence anytime the chassis it’s using this week comes off the hauler. Earnhardt Jr. drove “Amelia,” named after trailblazing pilot Amelia Earhart, to two victories last season — at Talladega in May and Daytona in July — and also won the first Daytona Duel qualifying race in February. With no major changes to how the plate package runs since the start of the 2014 season, it’s another reason to make Junior such a big favorite.

HAMLIN OFFERS BEST VALUE

It’s bizarre to see sports books again offer large odds on Denny Hamlin after he dominated Daytona speedweeks, when he won the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 at 15-1 odds each. He’s 12-1 today lumped next to several drivers who simply don’t measure up to his plate-racing statistics. In nine plate races since 2014, he has a series-best ninth-place average finish, with five top 5s and two wins. Earnhardt has a 12.7 average over the same span, if that gives any indication to how consistent Hamlin has been. His Daytona 500 winning chassis is on display in Daytona, so he’ll be using his Sprint Unlimited chassis. Should he win, it would be five straight for Joe Gibbs Racing.

BEST LONG SHOT

Jamie McMurray has won seven races over his career, and four of them came in plate races. He last won at Talladega in fall 2013 and has the car to contend today. At 40-1 odds and with so many cars being almost equal, that’s all you can for in this type of racing.

STAY AWAY FROM DRIVER MATCHUPS

You might look at the driver matchups and wonder why there are no huge favorites like in the 32 other nonplate races, and it all stems from the randomness of plate racing. Driver ratings don’t hold true like elsewhere. Practices also are meaningless, which is why a few drivers don’t bother running a lap in “happy hour.” The best bet is to reduce your normal wagering bankroll by 40 percent and take your shot at a couple of drivers to win.

START POSITION SURPRISINGLY KEY

It has been 17 races since the pole winner won a Talladega race, and it has happened only once (Jeff Gordon, 2007) in the past 35. Overall, 13 of the 93 winners have started on the pole. Chase Elliott (20-1) in the No. 24 will start from the pole — he also did at the Daytona 500. The No. 2 start position has been the most successful with 20 wins. Austin Dillon (30-1) starts second and is a good long shot. Despite being able to move through the field quickly on a single lap, only eight drivers have won from outside a top-20 starting position.

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on twitter @MicahRoberts7