Defensive-minded Iowa should expose Penn State as anything but elite

Penn State’s resume is crumbling. The Nittany Lions lost to a Michigan State team that isn’t very good, went to overtime against Appalachian State (which just got blown out by Georgia Southern) and played a tough game against Ohio State that isn’t looking as impressive.

Penn State hasn’t won by more than five points since beating Illinois more than five weeks ago, and the Illini led that game 24-21 in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Iowa is the most boring one-loss Power 5 team you’ll ever meet. But it is also 6-1 against the spread and two weeks ago blew out the Indiana team that gave Penn State a scare in last week’s 33-28 loss to the Nittany Lions.

If not for a fluky ending against Wisconsin, Iowa would be undefeated right now and perhaps ranked in the Top 10. Penn State has a one-dimensional offense, and the Hawkeyes are good enough to punish that on defense. I’ll take the 6 points with Iowa.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

HOUSTON (-7½) over South Florida: The Bulls are one of the worst ranked, undefeated teams that you’ll ever come across. Charlie Strong’s team claims one-possession wins against Illinois, East Carolina, Tulsa and Connecticut. Yikes. Houston has scored at least 41 points in all seven of its games this year. Whether or not Ed Oliver plays (knee), South Florida is going to have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard. The team has been prone to slow starts and penalties, both things that can cause issues on the road.

Texas A&M (+1½) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: This line could be a gift from the gambling gods. It’s one of those games that makes you pause and ask, is this too good to be true? But sometimes oddsmakers make mistakes. Mississippi State has lost three of four, scoring a combined 16 points in those three losses. Texas A&M’s defense is excellent against the run on early downs and even better on third-and-long. The Bulldogs should not score in the 20s without a non-offensive score or some short fields. Maybe Mississippi State will put in backup QB Keytaon Thompson. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS since Jimbo Fisher arrived, while Joe Moorhead’s offense is square peg, round hole with his personnel.

IOWA STATE (-5) over Texas Tech: I power rated Iowa State as a top 30 team even after its 1-3 start. Now, with three consecutive covers, a healthy David Montgomery in the backfield and new QB Brock Purdy lighting up opposing secondaries, I like the Cyclones even more. Purdy completed 36 of 48 passes against Oklahoma State and West Virginia for 572 yards and seven touchdowns. He also ran 30 times for another 123 yards. I’ll take a balanced offense and a defense that doesn’t allow big plays in front of a raucous home crowd.

MISSOURI (-7) over Kentucky: I wanted to pick the Gators in this spot, and got a Florida plus 10 ticket on Sunday. But that line has moved too much. We’ll go with another Southeastern Conference East matchup. Kentucky may be considered the sharp play, and math systems also favor the Wildcats. But Missouri’s run defense is No. 4 in the country in the S&P+ ratings, and unless Kentucky goes to Gunnar Hoak at QB, it’s going to struggle mightily to score. Drew Lock has not played well against great SEC defenses, but Kentucky will allow him to throw underneath zone coverage, which he will beat. If Missouri gets Emanuel Hall or Nate Brown back at receiver, it will just be a bonus.

Last week: 4-1 ATS

Season: 19-20-1

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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.