Kentucky Derby horse-by-horse analysis

DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello, formerly of Wynn Las Vegas, handicaps the 20-horse field in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

1. War Of Will, Gaffalione, 20-1

They tried him on turf early in his career and he didn’t adhere to that surface. But he has excelled on dirt. His last outing, in the Louisiana Derby, was a horrible race. Workouts have been formidable, but the No. 1 post is a killer where he must put the pedal to the metal when the starting gate opens.

2. Tax, Alvarado, 20-1

Not a poor race in any of his five starts. Training well. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, but this is a big stage for trainer Danny Gargan. Has had trouble out of the gate, so a clean start is imperative.

3. By My Standards, G. Saez, 20-1

After four maiden special weight races, exploded at 22-1 to win the Louisiana Derby. Massively improved from his previous race, and I expect additional improvement here. Not positive if it’s enough to win, but that doesn’t rule out using him in exotics.

4. Gray Magician, Van Dyke, 50-1

His last outing in the UAE Derby in Dubai was his best race ever. But it was such a weak field, I don’t see him as a major player here unless Houdini materializes.

5. Improbable, I. Ortiz Jr., 5-1

Three wins and two narrow losses in five starts. Has solid numbers on the Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheets. Won huge at Churchill Downs in his second start, and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has brought him around nicely. He should be close to the pace, and I like the addition of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

6. Vekoma, Castellano, 20-1

Lightly raced colt for trainer George Weaver, and I respect all he’s accomplished in his four starts. There’s not a lot to knock here. Not a huge surprise if he’s in the hunt.

7. Maximum Security, L. Saez, 6-1

This horse might try to steal this race, and an off track could help his cause. Four wins in four starts. Trainer Jason Servis — whose brother, John, won the 2004 Kentucky Derby with Smarty Jones — is having a phenomenal year, winning at a 30 percent clip.

8. Tacitus, J. Ortiz, 8-1

Bringing his A game to Churchill with three straight wins, most notably the Wood Memorial, and improving every race. The Tapit colt is trained by Bill Mott, who has never won the Kentucky Derby.

9. Plus Que Parfait, Santana Jr., 50-1

Won the UAE Derby at the end of March. He had a fortunate day, because there isn’t much in his past performances that entices me to use him in the top four.

10. Cutting Humor, Lanerie, 20-1

Have the utmost respect for the connections (Starlight Racing and Todd Pletcher). But he must run a race that’s equivalent to his last, plus a 15 percent improvement to have a chance.

11. Haikal, Maragh, 30-1

Would be ecstatic to see Kiaran McLaughlin win the Derby. One of the nicest guys in the game and a true gentleman. To have any chance at all, he must have a good break and not be sitting any worse than seventh on the first turn. Is having a slight issue with a foot abscess that makes him questionable to make it to the starting gate.

12. Code of Honor, Velazquez, 10-1

Didn’t have a great start in the Florida Derby, but probably wouldn’t have mattered because Maximum Security dominated the race. Has won two of five career starts. Jockey John Velazquez is the reason to give this horse a second look, possibly in the tail end of trifectas and superfectas.

13. Win Win Win, Pimentel, 14-1

Attempted to come from far off the pace in his last two races, and that type of running style might compromise his chances here. I don’t see him as a win candidate. Possibly show, show, show or no, no, no.

14. Master Fencer, Leparoux, 60-1

All his races have been in Japan, and it’s hard to evaluate the competition he’s been running against. His numbers are too slow for me to use him anywhere in the top four.

15. Game Winner, Rosario, 4-1

After winning all four starts as a 2-year-old, he has finished second in his two tries in 2019. Although both of those races were respectable, I don’t think he was fully cranked up for either. Issues at Santa Anita forced his training and racing to be altered. Despite having to make a few adjustments, I think he’s sitting on a big race. Should be right there.

16. Roadster, Geroux, 9-2

The third horse in the race for five-time Kentucky Derby winner Baffert. Was one of the future book Derby favorites last year, but had a setback and was questionable to make it this far. Has come back strong and wouldn’t blame anyone for backing him.

17. Long Range Toddy, Court, 30-1

His last outing, in the Arkansas Derby, was dreadful, but the conditions were unfavorable, as the track was a mess. We might see similar conditions Saturday, so I don’t see it.

18. Spinoff, Franco, 30-1

A horse that no one is talking about and has shown improvement in four straight starts. Finished second in the Louisiana Derby after being bumped at the start. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Manny Franco. Worth a second look.

19. Country House, Prat, 30-1

Only win is a maiden special weight, but did grab a piece of the pie in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. When the race starts, he might be in a quagmire with weather and traffic issues.

20. Bodexpress, Landeros, 40-1

Got in with the defection of Omaha Beach. Doesn’t have a win, but qualified by finishing second in the Florida Derby. If he can’t break clean and get close to the lead early, I don’t see much hope.