NFL Betting Breakdown: Doug Fitz

Los Angeles (4-7) at New England (9-2)

■ Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)

■ Line/Total: Patriots -13½, 44½

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: On paper and judging by sheer talent, the Patriots should be able to name the score, but how motivated will they be against an opponent they know they will beat? New England is minus a major weapon without injured tight end Rob Gronkowski. I’ve said numerous times that betting double-digit favorites in the NFL is a recipe for disaster more often than not.

■ By the numbers: In two starts, Rams rookie Jared Goff has passed for a respectable 348 yards and three touchdowns. … The Rams are 4-5-2 ATS. … Los Angeles ranks 29th in rushing offense at 83.1 yards per game.

■ Fitz’s pick: Patriots by 10

Kansas City (8-3) at Atlanta (7-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Falcons -5½, 49

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Chiefs’ opportunistic defense is the primary reason they have an outstanding plus-14 turnover margin. Their offense is never going to be flashy or come up with many big plays, but quarterback Alex Smith is a good game manager. The Falcons rank No. 1 in scoring offense (32.5 points per game), but their defense allows 27.5 points per game. The superior defense usually prevails, and Kansas City has it.

■ By the numbers: Atlanta’s Matt Ryan ranks third in passing yards (3,516) and touchdowns (26). … Smith has 10 touchdown passes with four interceptions. … The Chiefs are 2-1 against the spread as underdogs and 4-2 ATS in road games. … Kansas City is 19-4 straight up since last October.

■ Fitz’s pick: Chiefs by 3

Houston (6-5) at Green Bay (5-6)

■ Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

■ Line/Total: Packers -6½, 45

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Packers’ big win at Philadelphia on Monday may have put some life back into them after a four-game losing streak. The Texans are a phony 6-5 team, a record that looks good only because they play weak AFC South opponents. Houston coach Bill O’Brien usually looks clueless and has made numerous clock management and strategical mistakes. Both teams desperately need this win to stay in playoff contention. Despite numerous injuries, the Packers have the superior talent.

■ By the numbers: Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is second in the league with 27 touchdown passes. … Rodgers has 17 touchdowns with three interceptions in his past six games. … Houston ranks No. 5 in total defense (316.7 yards per game) and No. 12 in scoring defense (21.5). …. The Texans’ Brock Osweiler ranks 31st in the league in passer rating, last in yards per attempt and tied for last with 13 interceptions.

■ Fitz’s pick: Packers by 14

Philadelphia (5-6) at Cincinnati (3-7-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Bengals -1½, 42

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: Both teams are headed in the wrong direction. After a 3-0 start, the Eagles have dropped six of their past eight. The Bengals have been a disaster all year. Cincinnati has lost three in a row and its season is shot. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is normally great in the regular season, but he’s most likely history at the end of this season. Money has come in on the Bengals, who opened as 2-point underdogs. I disagree with the line move. The Eagles still have a shot at a playoff spot, and the Bengals have little motivation.

■ By the numbers: Eagles rookie Carson Wentz threw for seven touchdowns with one interception in his first five games, but since then he has seven interceptions and four touchdown passes. … The Bengals are 2-8-1 ATS and 2-4-1 ATS as favorites.

■ Fitz’s pick: Eagles by 3

Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (5-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Saints -6, 53

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: Money is showing on the Saints, but I think the move is misguided. The Saints lead the league in total offense with 434.1 yards per game, and quarterback Drew Brees is having one of his most impressive seasons. The problem is the New Orleans defense ranks 30th by allowing an average of 27.9 points. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford can take advantage of the Saints’ weak secondary, and Stafford is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career.

■ By the numbers: Brees is the NFL leader in passing yards (3,587), completion percentage (71.5) and touchdowns (30). … The Saints have covered seven of their past eight games, but they are 2-3 ATS as favorites. … Stafford has 19 touchdown passes with five interceptions. … The Lions are 4-2 ATS as underdogs. … Detroit is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games.

■ Fitz’s pick: Saints by 2

San Francisco (1-10) at Chicago (2-9)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: 49ers -1½, 43½

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: This is one of the worst games of the season, with the teams combining for a 3-19 record. The Bears will start quarterback Matt Barkley, who looked surprisingly good last week in a loss to the Titans. He could impress again versus a San Francisco defense allowing a league-worst 31.3 points per game.

■ By the numbers: The 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick improved in November, passing for 1,110 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. … Barkley made a fairly impressive first NFL start by completing 28 of 54 passes for 316 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions

■ Fitz’s pick: Bears by 3

Denver (7-4) at Jacksonville (2-9)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Broncos -3½, 39½

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: Paxton Lynch gets his second NFL start for the Broncos, replacing injured quarterback Trevor Siemian. Lynch, a rookie first-round pick, could be an upgrade. Siemian has been inconsistent all season. The Jaguars, losers of six straight games, will be hard pressed to generate much offense. Jacksonville has several key offensive players out with injuries.

■ By the numbers: In his first start, a home loss to Atlanta in Week 5, Lynch passed for 223 yards with one touchdown and one interception while getting sacked six times. … The Jaguars’ Blake Bortles has thrown 13 interceptions, tied for most in the league. … The Broncos have the league’s No. 1 pass defense. … Outside linebacker Von Miller is the league leader with 12½ sacks, and the Denver defense leads the league with 35 sacks.

■ Fitz’s pick: Broncos by 10

Miami (7-4) at Baltimore (6-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Ravens -3½, 41

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Dolphins have won six in a row, with Ryan Tannehill passing for nine touchdowns with one interception while recording a passer rating of 104.7 during that span. Tannehill is playing better under the guidance of coach Adam Gase, who has turned around Miami’s season since a dismal 1-4 start. The Ravens will need a better performance out of sluggish quarterback Joe Flacco.

■ By the numbers: Baltimore has the second-best defense in the league, allowing 297.8 yards per game. … The Ravens average 19.8 points to rank 24th in scoring offense. … The Dolphins’ Jay Ajayi ranks seventh in the league with 847 rushing yards on 161 carries. However, he has been held below 80 yards in each of the past three games.

■ Fitz’s pick: Dolphins by 3

Buffalo (6-5) at Oakland (9-2)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Raiders -3, 49

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: Despite the Raiders’ success, they are 1-4 ATS at home, excluding their “home” game in Mexico City. They are 5-0 straight up and ATS on the road. The Bills are 3-2 ATS on the road. Everyone is aware of Raiders quarterback Derek Carr’s MVP-type numbers, but Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor is quietly having a strong season. Carr’s injured pinkie finger on his passing hand could be a concern.

■ By the numbers: Carr has 22 touchdown passes with five interceptions. … Carr has led Oakland to five fourth-quarter comeback victories. … Taylor has thrown for 2,101 yards with with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. … Buffalo is No. 1 in rushing offense with 157.4 yards per game. … The Raiders rank 29th in total defense.

■ Fitz’s pick: Raiders by 3

Tampa Bay (6-5) at San Diego (5-6)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Chargers -3½, 48½

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Buccaneers are riding a three-game win streak and sit only one game back in the weak NFC South. The Chargers have continually shot themselves in the foot. San Diego has led in all six of its losses and led in the second half in five of those losses. The Chargers are underachieving despite having the league’s fourth-best scoring offense and fifth-best passing offense led by Philip Rivers. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston has looked much better during the recent win streak, but his mistakes (11 interceptions) continue to be a problem.

■ By the numbers: Rivers has 23 touchdown passes, but he has been intercepted 12 times and sacked 26 times. … The Chargers are 3-2 ATS at home. … Winston has 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the past five games. … The Bucs are 4-1 ATS on the road.

■ Fitz’s pick: Buccaneers by 1

Washington (6-4-1) at Arizona (4-6-1)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Cardinals -2½, 49

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: It’s time to officially acknowledge the Cardinals are just not that good. Arizona has lost four of its past five games. On the other hand, the Redskins are as good as their record and deserve to be favored. The loss of tight end Jordan Reed is important, but quarterback Kirk Cousins has an assortment of talented offensive weapons in DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, Vernon Davis and Pierre Garcon.

■ By the numbers: About the only positive for the Arizona offense is running back David Johnson, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage and has 13 touchdowns. … The Cardinals are 3-8 ATS. … The Redskins are 8-3 ATS. … Washington is No. 2 in total offense at 426.4 yards per game. … The Cardinals lead the league in total defense by allowing 294 yards per game.

■ Fitz’s pick: Redskins by 3

N.Y. Giants (8-3) at Pittsburgh (6-5)

■ Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)

■ Line/Total: Steelers -6, 49

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: It’s fair to say the Giants have overachieved and are lucky to be 8-3 with a six-game win streak. It’s certainly not their offense that has gotten them this far. New York’s turnover margin is minus-5, and it ranks 31st in rushing offense at 79.5 yards per game. Eli Manning has been a mediocre quarterback, and Odell Beckham Jr has been held below 100 yards receiving in five consecutive games. This looks to be a spot where the Giants get exposed by the Steelers, who have more offensive firepower.

■ By the numbers: The Giants rank fifth in run defense, allowing 89.1 yards per game. … The Giants have not had a run for 40 yards or more all season. … Manning has 20 touchdown passes with 10 interceptions. … Ben Roethlisberger has 23 touchdown passes. … The Pittsburgh offensive line has allowed only 14 sacks.

■ Fitz’s pick: Steelers by 10

Carolina (4-7) at Seattle (7-3-1)

■ Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

■ Line/Total: Seahawks -7½, 44

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Super Bowl hangover is in effect for the Panthers, who have been terrible in most aspects. In particular, their defensive secondary has been miserable by allowing an average of 275 yards passing with 7.2 yards per attempt. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks should bounce back in prime time after losing 14-5 at Tampa Bay last week. However, Seattle has not shown the ability to convincingly beat teams and cover big spreads.

■ By the numbers: Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has a low completion percentage (55.8) to go with 13 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. … The Seahawks are 5-5-1 ATS but 2-5 ATS as favorites. … In the league’s total defense rankings, Seattle is No. 7 and Carolina is No. 17. … The Seahawks allow 17.0 points per game to rank No. 1 in scoring defense.

■ Fitz’s pick: Seahawks by 4

Indianapolis (5-6) at N.Y. Jets (3-8)

■ Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

■ Line/Total: Colts -1½, 48½

■ Doug Fitz’s analysis: It appears Colts quarterback Andrew Luck will play after sitting out last week with a concussion. This game is obviously more important to Indianapolis, which is fighting to win the AFC South. The Jets are simply playing out the string, and the focus with them is when quarterback Bryce Petty will replace an ineffective Ryan Fitzpatrick. It won’t be this game because Fitzpatrick has been named the starter.

■ By the numbers: Luck has been sacked a league-high 35 times. … Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton is fifth in the league with 942 yards receiving. … The Colts have a minus-5 turnover margin, and the Jets have a minus-13 turnover margin.

■ Fitz’s pick: Colts by 3

Compiled by Matt Youmans/Las Vegas Review-Journal