NFL Betting Breakdown: Joe D’Amico
Indianapolis (1-2) vs. Jacksonville (0-3)
Where: London
Time/TV: 6:30 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Colts -2, 49
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Making the trip to London for the fourth consecutive year, the Jaguars basically consider Wembley Stadium a home field. Jacksonville covered both meetings against the Colts a season ago and will compete again in this one, matching up well with a Colts team that is struggling on the ground and relying solely upon quarterback Andrew Luck and his sore shoulder.
By the numbers: Jacksonville is 11-5-1 ATS in its past 17 versus AFC opponents. … Indianapolis ranks 23rd in rushing offense by averaging 86 yards per game. … The Jaguars rank seventh in the league against the pass (201.7 yards per game).
D’Amico’s pick: Colts by 1
Cleveland (0-3) at Washington (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Redskins -7½, 47
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: The Redskins come off a big victory over the Giants to lay their largest number in nearly a decade. The Browns’ latest starting quarterback, the improving and confident Cody Kessler, faces a secondary without injured veteran safety DeAngelo Hall. Cleveland’s Isaiah Crowell, the NFL’s second-leading rusher with 274 yards, will exploit Washington’s front seven.
By the numbers: The Browns rank fourth in rushing offense at 144.7 yards per game. … The Redskins rank 24th against the run by yielding 123 yards per game.
D’Amico’s pick: Redskins by 3
Buffalo (1-2) at New England (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -7, 43½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: The line floated around 5½ for a few days before jumping up to a full touchdown. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to start at quarterback for New England. With coach Bill Belichick at the helm and the NFL’s No. 1 running game led by LeGarrette Blount, the Patriots could probably win with Steve Grogan coming out of retirement. The Bills are in a letdown spot, a week after shellacking Arizona and keeping coach Rex Ryan employed. The New England defense will dominate the injury-riddled Buffalo offense.
By the numbers: The Bills rank 32nd in passing (163.7 yards per game), so the New England defense can key on the running game. … The Patriots are 20-7-2 ATS in their past 29 home games.
D’Amico’s pick: Patriots by 10
Seattle (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Seahawks -1½, 39½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Expect the New York defensive line to dominate the mediocre Seattle offensive line and get to hobbled quarterback Russell Wilson. The Jets catch the Seahawks coming in with a false sense of confidence after last week’s blowout win over a lackluster 49ers team.
By the numbers: Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown a league-high seven interceptions, including six last week in a loss at Kansas City. … Wilson has two touchdown passes and has been sacked seven times. … The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings between these teams.
D’Amico’s pick: Jets by 1
Carolina (1-2) at Atlanta (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -3, 50½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: The defending NFC champion Panthers cannot afford to drop to 1-3, and they have extra motivation because the Falcons handed them their only regular-season loss last year. The Atlanta offense is tops in the NFL in scoring, but Carolina has one of the best pass defenses in the league.
By the numbers: Atlanta ranks 28th in scoring defense by allowing 30.3 points per game. … The Falcons’ Matt Ryan has seven touchdown passes and one interception. … The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight series meetings.
D’Amico’s pick: Panthers by 6
Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (0-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Lions -3, 47½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Detroit has owned Chicago, taking the past six meetings. Soldier Field holds no home-field advantage anymore for the Bears, who have dropped six in a row and are on an ATS run of 6-20-1 in their past 27 at home. The Bears miss departed running back Matt Forte, and Brian Hoyer is expected to get his second start in place of injured quarterback Jay Cutler.
By the numbers: Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has seven touchdown passes and the league’s sixth-highest completion percentage (67.5). … The Lions are 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in this NFC North series.
D’Amico’s pick: Lions by 7
Tennessee (1-2) at Houston (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -4½, 40½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Houston has taken all four meetings in the series under coach Bill O’Brien, who had a few extra days to prepare after the Texans’ embarrassing 27-0 loss at New England on Sept. 22. Marcus Mariota and the Titans’ struggling passing attack probably cannot take advantage of the absence of Texans defensive end J.J. Watt.
By the numbers: Brock Osweiler is off to a slow start in Houston with three touchdown passes and four interceptions in three starts. … Tennessee’s DeMarco Murray is eighth in the league with 245 yards rushing. … The Texans rank No. 5 in total defense.
D’Amico’s pick: Texans by 9
Oakland (2-1) at Baltimore (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Ravens -3½, 46½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: The line here is key. It has moved from 3 to 3½, which urges me to take the points with the Raiders. On the surface, Baltimore looks solid with a 3-0 record, but its wins were by margins of six, five and two points. Oakland is averaging 26.7 points and ranks among the league leaders in most offensive categories.
By the numbers: The Ravens are averaging 19.0 points to rank 24th in scoring offense. … Derek Carr has five touchdown passes for the Raiders, and No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper has 15 catches for 270 yards with no scores. … The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games.
D’Amico’s pick: Raiders by 1
Denver (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Broncos -3, 43
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Trevor Siemian handled his first road start by stifling naysayers with a four-touchdown, 312-yard performance last week at Cincinnati to give the Broncos their third win and cover. Von Miller leads a ferocious Denver defense that allows just 19 points per game. Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston tends to force plays and make costly errors when facing aggressive defenses.
By the numbers: Winston has 929 yards passing and eight touchdowns, but he has been intercepted six times. … The Tampa Bay defense ranks last in the NFL in scoring (33.7) and allowed the Rams, who had no touchdowns in their first two games, to rack up 37 points.
D’Amico’s pick: Broncos by 10
Dallas (2-1) at San Francisco (1-2)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Cowboys -2, 45
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: San Francisco returns home for the first time since its season-opening 28-0 victory over the Rams. Chip Kelly needs to coach up a struggling offense for the 49ers, who had a tough two-game trip to Carolina and Seattle. Wide receiver Dez Bryant is unlikely to play for the Cowboys, who have lost their past six without Bryant and quarterback Tony Romo starting. Dallas is getting great efforts out of rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.
By the numbers: The 49ers allowed only 16.8 points per game at home last season. … San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its past five at home.
D’Amico’s pick: 49ers by 2
New Orleans (0-3) at San Diego (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -4, 53½
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Saints quarterback Drew Brees returns to face his former team in San Diego for the first time. He has defeated the Chargers in London and New Orleans. The big story here is that both defenses are doormats and are susceptible to the pass. Look over the total in a high-scoring game.
By the numbers: Brees leads the NFL’s No. 1 pass offense (342 yards per game), and the Saints are averaging 26.3 points. … Philip Rivers ignites a San Diego offense that ranks No. 3 in scoring at 29 points per game. … The teams’ past four meetings went over the total.
D’Amico’s pick: Chargers by 3
Los Angeles (2-1) at Arizona (1-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -8½, 43
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Normally, I would be a little hesitant laying a number like this in the NFL, especially with both visitors trading wins last season. However, the Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing loss to Buffalo last week, and coach Bruce Arians will have his team motivated for this division game. The Arizona defense, unafraid of quarterback Case Keenum’s passing, will key on Todd Gurley and the running game.
By the numbers: Gurley has been held to 2.9 yards per carry. … The Cardinals rank No. 9 in total defense. … Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in the series.
D’Amico’s pick: Cardinals by 11
Kansas City (2-1) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Steelers -4, 47
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: The Steelers scored three points last week in one of their worst losses in recent memory, and they are looking to avenge last season’s loss at Kansas City. Running back Le’Veon Bell returns for Pittsburgh, which is typically a strong bounce-back team. The Chiefs will see the season debut of running back Jamaal Charles.
By the numbers: Ben Roethlisberger has six touchdown passes and four interceptions while getting sacked six times in three games. … Kansas City’s Alex Smith has been sacked nine times. … The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their past six as road underdogs.
D’Amico’s pick: Steelers by 6
New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Line/Total: Vikings -4½, 43
Joe D’Amico’s analysis: Even without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson, Minnesota is 3-0 straight up and ATS. Injuries also have hit New York pretty hard on both sides of the ball. Without Bridgewater and Peterson, Minnesota’s offense will be conservative in an effort to limit mistakes. I expect a low-scoring game.
By the numbers: In two starts for the Vikings, Sam Bradford has 59 pass attempts with no interceptions. … Eli Manning is 2-5 as a starter against Minnesota, with multiple interceptions in four of seven games. … Minnesota ranks No. 3 in scoring defense — behind Philadelphia and Seattle — at 13.3 points per game.
D’Amico’s pick: Vikings by 6
