NFL Betting Breakdown: Micah Roberts
Tampa Bay (0-0) at Atlanta (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -3, 47½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Buccaneers swept the two-game series last season. These quarterbacks appear to be headed in opposite directions. Jameis Winston overcame a poor start to have a solid rookie season for Tampa Bay. Winston passed for 22 touchdowns with 15 interceptions. Matt Ryan is on the decline in Atlanta. Under the total might be the best play here.
By the numbers: The Falcons finished last season on a 2-10 slide against the spread. … Atlanta was the NFL’s best ‘under’ team last season, going 13-2-1.
Roberts’ pick: Buccaneers, 23-17
Minnesota (0-0) at Tennessee (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -2, 40½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: I like the direction the Titans are going with coach Mike Mularkey and a power running game featuring DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Tennessee will be good very soon. In the case of the Vikings, they are very good right now, led by a defense that does not give much away. Sam Bradford — or the Week 1 starter, Shaun Hill — should be fine replacing injured quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who basically was asked not to make mistakes and ride Adrian Peterson down the field. Expect a conservative offense and stingy defense from Minnesota. The play here is under the total.
By the numbers: The Vikings snuck up on bookmakers by going 8-1-1 under the total in their first 10 games last season. The Vikings-to-under parlay combination cashed in 11 of 17 games. … Peterson led the league in rushing with 1,485 yards in 2015.
Roberts’ pick: Vikings, 17-13
Cleveland (0-0) at Philadelphia (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -3½, 41
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Philadelphia opens with a rookie quarterback (Carson Wentz) and a first-year coach (Doug Pederson). How Wentz got the starting job over Chase Daniel is mystery because Wentz struggled throughout training camp and only played in the first preseason game. It’s even more surprising since Daniel signed a three-year, $21 million contract to follow Pederson from the Chiefs, and Pederson is well-versed in the Andy Reid-style offensive scheme owner Jeffrey Lurie wanted to return to. The Eagles’ offense will struggle, and the Browns will capitalize off the rookie’s errors that are sure to occur.
By the numbers: The Eagles went 4-0 in the preseason, while the Browns went 0-4, but what does that mean? Not much. … This line opened at Eagles minus-8½, so Browns backers are late on the best number.
Roberts’ pick: Browns, 27-10
Cincinnati (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bengals -2½, 42
Micah Roberts’ analysis: This is the regular season, and Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has a knack for getting his guys ready, especially on the road, where they went 8-0 ATS last season. Look for quarterback Andy Dalton and the Bengals to keep their road roll going and cover again.
By the numbers: The Bengals were a great team to bet last season, ending up 12-3-1 ATS. But they suffered another playoff loss, and that’s seven playoff games for Lewis and seven losses. … Dalton passed for 25 touchdowns with seven interceptions last season. … The Jets’ Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 31 touchdowns with 15 interceptions.
Roberts’ pick: Bengals, 24-20
Oakland (0-0) at New Orleans (0-0)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Saints -1½, 52
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Flip a coin on the side. But I’m looking for a high-scoring game that goes over the total. The Oakland offense, led by quarterback Derek Carr, has some serious talent to go with confidence.
By the numbers: The Raiders went 6-2 ATS on the road last season. … New Orleans went 4-4 straight up at home while allowing 31.6 points per game. … Drew Brees led the league with 4,870 yards passing, and his numbers were dramatically better in the Superdome.
Roberts’ pick: Raiders, 31-30
San Diego (0-0) at Kansas City (0-0)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Chiefs -6½, 44
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Chargers finally stopped a nine-game noncover streak against AFC West opponents last season, then went on to cover late in the year against Oakland and Denver on the road. That’s a nice change of pace, despite not accumulating many wins. The Chargers were competitive on the road, covering six of eight, including their last four. Sharps are on the Chargers this week, and I’m on board, too.
By the numbers: The Chiefs finished the regular season on a 10-game win streak. … The past four meetings between these teams stayed under the total. … Philip Rivers ranked No. 2 in the league with 4,792 yards passing despite San Diego’s weak offensive line and mediocre receivers.
Roberts’ pick: Chargers, 19-16
Buffalo (0-0) at Baltimore (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -3, 44½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: This might be the least attractive game on the board, and most bettors agree, as it has sat still at Ravens minus-3 since numbers opened in April. I can’t make a strong case for either side or the total. I would like to believe the Ravens are better than the team that covered just once at home last season, but I can also sell myself on the idea that the decline continues in Baltimore.
By the numbers: The Bills recorded wins in Weeks 1 and 17 and finished 8-8 in coach Rex Ryan’s first season. … The Ravens, who lost several starters to injuries, dropped seven games by six points or fewer last season.
Roberts’ pick: Bills, 20-17
Chicago (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -6, 44
Micah Roberts’ analysis: We just saw how a dominating defense can carry a team to a Super Bowl title with just OK quarterbacking, and I see a lot of Denver’s style in the Houston defense, which allowed 10 points or fewer in six of the final nine regular-season games. Even with poor QB play, the Texans still managed to win seven of those games and earn a playoff berth. Now they get Brock Osweiler, who led the Broncos to a 5-2 record. He was an unheralded performer in Denver’s championship run. Osweiler is the missing ingredient to take Houston to the next level, and he’s going prove it right out of the gate in front of the home crowd. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has proven his bad habits and lackluster attitude make him almost uncoachable. Cutler aside, the Bears are not that talented.
By the numbers: I’m extremely high on the Texans, so I like 8-1 odds to win the AFC, 8-5 to win the AFC South and also over 8½ regular-season wins. … Osweiler’s first career start came at Chicago on Nov. 22, and he won 17-15.
Roberts’ pick: Texans, 31-13
Green Bay (0-0) at Jacksonville (0-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -5½, 48
Micah Roberts’ analysis: There’s too much public weight on this game to make a case for the Packers. The entire city seems to have Green Bay tied into most parlays. I can buy quarterback Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense to play well, get into a shootout and pull off the upset.
By the numbers: The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers passed for 31 touchdowns last season, while Bortles passed for 35. But Bortles threw 18 interceptions, 10 more than Rodgers.
Roberts’ pick: Jaguars, 34-31
Miami (0-0) at Seattle (0-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -10½, 44
Micah Roberts’ analysis: New coach Adam Gase should improve the Dolphins, but playing at Seattle will be their toughest task of the season. I can’t lay the large number that has moved three points in the past two months, but I don’t want the Dolphins, either. The only case I can make is to play this under the total.
By the numbers: The Dolphins have covered the number only five times in their past 21 games. … Russell Wilson passed for 34 touchdowns with eight interceptions and was the league’s highest-rated passer last season. But Wilson and Seattle slumped a little at home with a 5-3 record.
Roberts’ pick: Seahawks, 24-10
New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas (0-0)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Pick, 46½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Ben McAdoo coaching era begins for the Giants. Dak Prescott takes over as a rookie quarterback in Dallas. Prescott was outstanding in the preseason, but he was not facing defenses that were blitzing a lot and scheming for him. This is the real deal. I think Prescott will be exposed in this game and the next few, and the Dallas power running game won’t get going until he proves he can make secondaries pay for cheating against the run. The Giants should be favored by two points.
By the numbers: The Giants have covered the past three meetings, and the past seven meetings went over the total. … Dallas went 1-7 at home last season, with a dramatic Week 1 win over the Giants.
Roberts’ pick: Giants, 34-17
Detroit (0-0) at Indianapolis (0-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Colts -3, 50½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: After a stellar 2014 season led by a stingy defense, Detroit fell back with a 7-9 record, but I liked how the Lions closed the season strong. After starting 1-7 straight up and ATS, the Lions won and covered six of their last eight, including the final three. Matthew Stafford’s passing numbers improved noticeably in the second half of the season. Look for Stafford and the Lions to carry some of that momentum into this year.
By the numbers: The Colts got seven starts out of quarterback Andrew Luck last season, but they won only two of them. … Indianapolis, for whatever reason, is 1-7 ATS in its past eight Week 1 games.
Roberts’ pick: Lions, 27-23
New England (0-0) at Arizona (0-0)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Cardinals -7, 45½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: We have a quarterback making his first NFL start on the road against a Cardinals team that went 13-3 last year and lost in the NFC title game. Arizona might even be better this year. I have all the respect in the world for Patriots coach Bill Belichick and his ability to game-plan when given a few weeks to prepare, but Jimmy Garoppolo is given too much credit here with the line. Garoppolo will miss injured tight end Rob Gronkowski. I expect Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to come out slinging early and often. The pace of the game will be fast, and the Patriots, who traded sack leader Chandler Jones to Arizona and will be without suspended linebacker Rob Ninkovich, are not as good on defense.
By the numbers: The Patriots lost their final three road games of last season with Tom Brady at quarterback. … The Cardinals’ point differential (plus-176) was second in the league to Carolina (plus-192) last season.
Roberts’ pick: Cardinals, 38-20
Pittsburgh (0-0) at Washington (0-0)
Time/TV: 4:10 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Steelers -3, 50
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Expect a shootout, and look over the total. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers should move the ball well and score in the 30s, even without suspended running back Le’Veon Bell. But I don’t necessarily see Pittsburgh getting an easy win.
By the numbers: The Redskins won and covered their last four regular-season games, and their last five overall went over the total. … Kirk Cousins had a breakout year for Washington while leading the league in completion percentage (69.8).
Roberts’ pick: Steelers, 34-31
Los Angeles (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0)
Time/TV: 7:20 p.m., ESPN
Line/Total: Rams -2½, 43½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: I love saying “Los Angeles Rams” again, but not enough to lay up to three points — where the line will end up — with actual money. I’m interested to see new coach Chip Kelly’s offense for San Francisco and how he approaches things. My belief is that Kelly will slow the pace that he traditionally likes to run just to accommodate his roster. This total has dropped three points since opening, but it still may be too high, so under the total is my only play.
By the numbers: San Francisco went 4-4 at home and 1-7 on the road last season. … Blaine Gabbert, the 49ers’ starting quarterback, passed for 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions in limited action a year ago.
Roberts’ pick: 49ers, 20-17
