NFL Betting Breakdown: Micah Roberts
Detroit (9-4) at New York Giants (9-4)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Giants -4, 41
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Yes, the Giants are hot after winning seven of their past eight games, but this number is telling me the Giants are about two points better than Detroit on a neutral field, and that just isn’t the case. I have the Lions rated a half-point better, which makes my number Giants minus-2 with home field. Because I can straddle 3 and get some bonus points with a team that always believes it can win, I’m taking the points. Detroit is actually hotter, winning eight of its past nine. There are some concerns about Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will be throwing with a dislocated middle finger on his right hand.
By the numbers: Stafford has 22 touchdown passes with seven interceptions. … New York’s Odell Beckham Jr. ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,109 yards receiving. … The Giants rank 25th in scoring offense at 19.6 points per game. … The Giants are 6-1 straight up and 4-3 against the spread at home.
Roberts’ pick: Lions, 20-19
Philadelphia (5-8) at Baltimore (7-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -6, 40½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz was outstanding at home in the first half of the season, but lately he has been terrible everywhere. The Eagles have lost six of seven (1-6 ATS), including their past four. I’ve been down on the Ravens all season, but their offense has been impressive the past six weeks. Beyond the Wentz woes on the road, the Philadelphia defense has been equally bad, which has helped six of seven go over the total. It’s expected to be raining with light winds, but I like Baltimore and over the total.
By the numbers: The Ravens rank No. 4 in total defense, allowing 311.5 yards per game. … Philadelphia ranks 19th in scoring offense at 22.3 points per game. … Baltimore’s Joe Flacco leads the league in pass attempts (549). … Wentz has 13 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions. … Baltimore is on a 4-0 straight up and ATS run at home.
Roberts’ pick: Ravens, 31-19
Green Bay (7-6) at Chicago (3-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -5½, 39½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Bears have stayed under the total in their past two games, and we should see another low-scoring game because the Chicago offense has trouble scoring and temperatures could dip below zero. Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll during the Packers’ three-game win streak, but don’t expect the passing attack for either team to be too effective. The line on Green Bay is a little inflated, but I don’t want the Bears, so my only play is under the total.
By the numbers: Rodgers is the league leader with 32 touchdown passes. … Matt Barkley has four touchdown passes and two interceptions in three starts for the Bears . … Barkley was intercepted twice in relief in the Bears’ 26-10 loss at Green Bay on Oct. 20. … Chicago ranks 30th in scoring offense at 17.0 points per game.
Roberts’ pick: Packers, 14-10
Indianapolis (6-7) at Minnesota (7-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -5, 45½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: It will be interesting to see how running back Adrian Peterson’s return impacts a sluggish Vikings offense. The Colts average a 25-25 score this season, so we get a nice high total involving Minnesota at home. I’ll go with the Vikings to impose their defensive will while also being vanilla offensively in a low-scoring game.
By the numbers: The Vikings’ Sam Bradford has 14 touchdown passes with three interceptions and leads the league in completion percentage (71.2). … The Colts’ Andrew Luck has passed for 25 touchdowns, but he has been sacked 37 times. … Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton is No. 2 in the league with 1,203 yards receiving. … Peterson totaled 31 carries for only 50 yards in two games before going down with a knee injury.
Roberts’ pick: Vikings, 19-13
Cleveland (0-13) at Buffalo (6-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bills -10, 41½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: For the first time in two months, there’s actually some value in betting against the Browns. Of course, Cleveland has failed to cover seven straight games, but usually my ratings have the Browns’ line two to three points lower than what the books are offering to make up for the public popularity of betting their opponent. This week, my number has the Bills at minus-10½, so I bet it at 10, even though I dislike laying double digits. The Bills go back to having some fun this week in chilly 20 mph winds. Buffalo gets the cover, and the under looks good, too.
By the numbers: LeSean McCoy is eighth in the league with 976 yards rushing, and Buffalo has the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense at 154.6 yards per game. … Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has 2,520 yards passing and 471 yards rushing. … Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III returned from an injury last week and completed 12 of 28 passes for 104 yards. He was intercepted once and sacked three times in a 23-10 loss to Cincinnati.
Roberts’ pick: Bills, 21-0
Tennessee (7-6) at Kansas City (10-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -5, 42
Micah Roberts’ analysis: I’m expecting a close game with the Titans having a great chance to win as they continue their quest to win the AFC South. The edge I see with Tennessee is its offensive line and running attack in cold weather, with the temperature around 12 degrees. The Chiefs have gone under the total in seven of their past nine games. My top play is the under, and I also made a smaller play on the Titans.
By the numbers: Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota continues to improve, totaling 25 touchdown passes with eight interceptions in his second season. … DeMarco Murray leads the Titans’ ground game and ranks No. 2 in the league in rushing yards with 1,135. … Kansas City ranks No. 8 in scoring defense, allowing 19.6 points per game. … Of the Chiefs’ past five wins, four were by margins of five points or fewer.
Roberts’ pick: Titans, 17-13
Jacksonville (2-11) at Houston (7-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -5½, 39½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Texans come off a rare road win in a key situation to make them 12-3-2 ATS in their past 17 against AFC South opponents. That stretch includes five straight wins (4-1 ATS) against the Jaguars. Both quarterbacks — Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles and Houston’s Brock Osweiler — are playing below expectations. Look for a low-scoring game that is closer than expected. Play this under the total.
By the numbers: During their eight-game losing streak, the Jaguars are 2-6 ATS. … Bortles has thrown 15 interceptions, the second-highest total in the league behind San Diego’s Philip Rivers (17). … Osweiler has 14 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. … The Texans were 3-point underdogs in a 24-21 win at Jacksonville in November.
Roberts’ pick: Texans, 17-16
Pittsburgh (8-5) at Cincinnati (5-7-1)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Steelers -3, 44½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Steelers were minus-3 in a 24-16 win in Week 2, and now they are laying 3 or 3½ on the road. The Bengals have not looked good for most of the season, but they have been sharp the past two weeks while showing some fight for coach Marvin Lewis. Cincinnati is not fighting for a playoff spot for the first time in six years, but this will serve as its Super Bowl of sorts to derail hated Pittsburgh. The Bengals are without injured wide receiver A.J. Green, but I’ll be happy to take plus-3½ with the home underdog when it shows up. I’ll also look under the total with the wind chill expected to be in the teens
By the numbers: Ben Roethlisberger, who has 25 touchdown passes, threw for three scores with two interceptions in the Steelers’ victory over the Bengals in September. … Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight up and ATS in its past four games. … The Bengals’ Andy Dalton has five touchdown passes and no interceptions in his past three games.
Roberts’ pick: Bengals, 13-10
New Orleans (5-8) at Arizona (5-7-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -3, 50½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Saints have lost four of their past five, and quarterback Drew Brees is suddenly struggling. It’s hard to believe Arizona’s rating has dropped to the depths of New Orleans, but that is the reality. Every time I think I’m done with the Cardinals this season, I keep getting sucked in as though last year’s team will someday show up. I’ll just play this over the total.
By the numbers: Brees’ 30 touchdown passes rank second in the league, but he had no touchdowns and six interceptions in the past two games. … Arizona ranks No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in pass defense (201.8 yards per game). … The Saints scored a total of 24 points in their past two games, losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay.
Roberts’ pick: Cardinals, 34-31
San Francisco (1-12) at Atlanta (8-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -13½, 50½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The 49ers have lost 12 straight since a Week 1 win, and coach Chip Kelly has no answers. Atlanta has problems on defense, so I like the San Francisco running attack to move the ball and score. I’m not taking the 49ers, but I do have a play over the total with expectations that the Falcons’ fast pace will be just like all of their previous home games that went over.
By the numbers: The Falcons are 11-2 over the total this season. … The 49ers are 2-10-1 ATS and 7-6 over the total. … San Francisco allows 30.2 points per game to rank last in the NFL in scoring defense. … Atlanta allows 26.5 to rank 26th. … The Falcons’ Matt Ryan ranks No. 2 in passing yards (4,050) and touchdowns (30).
Roberts’ pick: Falcons, 37-28
New England (11-2) at Denver (8-5)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Patriots -3, 44
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Tom Brady has had a rough time at Denver during his career, including two losses there last season. While I expect the Denver defense to give him fits again, I don’t trust the Broncos to be effective enough offensively to support a bet on them. The Patriots have stayed under the total in seven of their past eight, and I like it to happen again.
By the numbers: Brady has 22 touchdowns and two interceptions in nine games. … Denver ranks third in total defense and sixth in scoring defense, but it allows 127.2 yards per game to rank 29th in rushing defense. … New England power back LeGarrette Blount is fifth in the league with 1,029 yards rushing.
Roberts’ pick: Patriots, 23-10
Oakland (10-3) at San Diego (5-8)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Raiders -2½, 49½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Raiders, who come off a loss, have the best turnover ratio (plus-15) in the NFL. The Chargers, on a two-game losing streak, top the league with 30 turnovers, including 17 interceptions thrown by Philip Rivers. Oakland won the first meeting 34-31, and I see something similar in the rematch. I like the Raiders with the line dropping to 2½, but I love this over the total.
By the numbers: Derek Carr has 24 touchdown passes for an Oakland offense that ranks second in scoring at 27.5 points per game. … San Diego ranks fourth in scoring offense at 26.9 per game. … The Chargers’ Melvin Gordon, who has 997 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns, is out with hip and knee injuries.
Roberts’ pick: Raiders, 38-30
Tampa Bay (8-5) at Dallas (11-2)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Cowboys -7, 46½
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Tampa Bay’s rating keeps climbing, and Dallas’ rating has peaked. After nine straight covers, the Cowboys failed to cover the past three weeks. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott just experienced his worst game and has not topped 200 yards passing during the noncover stretch. The Buccaneers have put it all together and ride a five-game win-and-cover streak, but they are still rated too low. This could be the upset of the week, with a Tampa Bay defense perhaps playing the best in the league right now. I’m happy taking plus-7.
By the numbers: Prescott has passed for 20 touchdowns with four interceptions, but he was intercepted twice last week in a 10-7 loss to the Giants. … The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott remains the league’s rushing leader with 1,392 yards. … The Buccaneers’ Jameis Winston has 23 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions.
Roberts’ pick: Buccaneers, 23-20
Carolina (5-8) at Washington (7-5-1)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Redskins -6½, 51
Micah Roberts’ analysis: Cam Newton and the Panthers had a little fun last week in a home win against the Chargers, and while postseason play long has been out of the picture, there still is a goal of trying to finish the season at .500. That means winning three straight to close out the season, and Washington’s defense gives Newton every opportunity to have success. The Carolina defense won’t stop Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, either, which makes over the total the best play.
By the numbers: The Redskins have allowed 20 points or more in eight straight games. … Washington is 11-2 over the total. … Cousins has 23 touchdown passes and ranks third in passing yards with 4,045.
Roberts’ pick: Redskins, 34-31
