NFL Betting Breakdown: Mike Scalleat

Tennessee (5-5) at Indianapolis (4-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Colts -2½, 53

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: Marcus Mariota looked good last week. He’s gaining confidence, and the Titans’ running game is strong. Andrew Luck never has lost to Tennessee, with the Colts winning 10 straight in the series. But every trend has got to end. The Indianapolis offensive line is awful, and too much is put on Luck to win games. There is more upside for the Titans. I like Tennessee in this spot.

■ By the numbers: Mariota passed for 295 yards and four touchdowns last week against Green Bay, putting his season total at 21 TD passes. … Luck has been sacked a league-high 33 times. … The Colts were 4-point underdogs in a 34-26 win at Tennessee on Oct. 23. … The Titans are 7-0 over the total in their past seven games. … Indianapolis ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense by allowing 28.4 points per game.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Titans by 3

Jacksonville (2-7) at Detroit (5-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Lions -6½, 47½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: The Lions are solid at home (3-1), but I don’t think they should be favored by this much. Detroit has not won by more than 6 points this season. If Blake Bortles can stay away from mistakes, the Jaguars can hang in there.

■ By the numbers: Bortles has 16 touchdown passes, but is tied for second in the league with 11 interceptions. … Jacksonville is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread in its past four games. … The Lions’ Matthew Stafford is quietly playing his best football, passing for 18 touchdowns with only five interceptions. … Detroit is 1-2-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Lions by 3

Tampa Bay (4-5) at Kansas City (7-2)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Chiefs -7, 44½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: The Chiefs are not a high-scoring team, so when they are laying 7½ you have to look at the underdog. With wide receiver Jeremy Maclin out, that hurts Kansas City’s offense. Tampa Bay looked better last week in a blowout of the Bears. Running back Doug Martin’s return has helped the offensive balance. I lean to the Buccaneers because the line is so high.

■ By the numbers: Jameis Winston passed for 312 yards last week in Tampa Bay’s win. Winston has 10 TD passes and two interceptions in the past four games. … The Buccaneers are 3-1 straight up and ATS on the road. … The Chiefs lead the league with a plus-14 turnover ratio. … Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its past seven home games.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Chiefs by 6

Chicago (2-7) at N.Y. Giants (6-3)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Giants -7½, 43

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: The Bears are a terrible team with no incentive to win. Sometimes you watch quarterback Jay Cutler and wonder why he’s in the league. The offense will be even worse with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery suspended. Rashad Jennings is giving the Giants a better running game, and they should win easily if Eli Manning avoids mistakes.

■ By the numbers: Jennings rushed for a season-high 87 yards Monday in New York’s victory over Cincinnati. … Cutler was 16-for-30 with two interceptions last week. … Chicago ranks 31st in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game. … The Bears are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games. … The Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Giants by 10

Arizona (4-4-1) at Minnesota (5-4)

■ Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)

■ Line/Total: Vikings -2, 40

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: After losing four in a row, the Vikings are due to play a good game. I doubt they will lose five in a row. Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in the league, but the Cardinals have not shown much. The Minnesota defense will be all over Carson Palmer, who has no mobility in the pocket.

■ By the numbers: The Vikings rank No. 1 in scoring defense, allowing 16.9 points per game. … Arizona is tied for third in scoring defense (17.8). … Palmer has been sacked 26 times. … The Minnesota defense has recorded 22 sacks and forced 18 turnovers. … The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS in their past four road games. … The Vikings’ Sam Bradford passed for a season-high 307 yards last week at Washington.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Vikings by 7

Buffalo (4-5) at Cincinnati (3-5-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Bengals -2½, 47½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: The Bills will be ready to play coming off a bye. LeSean McCoy is healthy, so Buffalo will have a good running attack. When a team is favored by less than a field goal at home, it’s a sign of weakness. The Bengals have not been impressive. If Cincinnati continues to struggle, coach Marvin Lewis should be gone.

■ By the numbers: Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton has been sacked 28 times this season. … The Bengals are 2-6-1 ATS. … McCoy had 120 total yards (85 rushing, 35 receiving) in the Bills’ loss at Seattle before the bye. … Buffalo ranks 14th in total defense, and Cincinnati ranks 24th. … The Bills rank No. 4 in the league with a plus-7 turnover ratio.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Bills by 4

Baltimore (5-4) at Dallas (8-1)

■ Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

■ Line/Total: Cowboys -7½, 45

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: Are the Cowboys (8-0-1 ATS) going to keep covering? I think this is going to be a close game. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has had extra time to prepare since beating Cleveland on Nov. 10. It’s not a good spot for Dallas, which is off a win at Pittsburgh and has a division game against Washington on Thanksgiving. If this line goes off at 7½, I’ll bet Baltimore.

■ By the numbers: Dallas rookie Ezekiel Elliott is the NFL’s rushing leader with 1,005 yards, an average of 111.7 per game. … Dak Prescott has 14 touchdowns with only two interceptions in 280 pass attempts. … Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has nine TD passes with nine interceptions. … The Ravens rank No. 1 in run defense (71.3 yards per game). … Baltimore is 14-9 ATS in its past 23 as an underdog.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Cowboys by 6

Pittsburgh (4-5) at Cleveland (0-10)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Steelers -8, 44½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: I can’t see the Steelers losing five straight. But coach Mike Tomlin is terrible. He blew it against Dallas last week by going 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions, and trying that after the first touchdown changed the whole game. Pittsburgh still has a good shot to win the AFC North. The hopeless Browns are not going to be too motivated, and their offense is going to struggle to score.

■ By the numbers: Cleveland’s minus-126 point differential is by far the worst in the league. … The Browns rank 30th in scoring offense at 17.5 points per game. … Cleveland is 5-15-1 ATS in its past 21 games. … Ben Roethlisberger was 37-for-46 for 408 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions last week against a good Dallas defense.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Steelers by 10

Miami (5-4) at Los Angeles (4-5)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Dolphins -2, 39½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: I will go against Rams rookie quarterback Jared Goff in his first start. The Dolphins’ fast defensive front will be all over Goff. Miami can run the ball better behind a strong offensive line. This is a game the Dolphins should win, and it helps that they stayed on the West Coast all week after beating San Diego.

■ By the numbers: The Dolphins’ Jay Ajayi is sixth in the league in rushing with 725 yards. He has 608 yards in the past four games. … Miami has four straight wins and is 3-0-1 ATS. … Los Angeles ranks last in scoring offense (15.4 points per game) and totaled 29 points in its past three games.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Dolphins by 7

New England (7-2) at San Francisco (1-8)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Patriots -12, 51½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is going back to the Bay Area, where he grew up as a 49ers fan. Brady will be motivated, but tight end Rob Gronkowski is out. Still, Brady will have no problem putting up points, and New England will rebound from its loss to Seattle. This is a game I can’t wait not to watch.

■ By the numbers: San Francisco ranks last in total defense (429.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (31.4). … Brady has 12 TD passes, but failed to get one against the Seahawks. … After covering last week, the 49ers are 2-7 ATS.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Patriots by 13

Philadelphia (5-4) at Seattle (6-2-1)

■ Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)

■ Line/Total: Seahawks -6½, 43

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: The Eagles will show up to compete. Philadelphia is better than its record shows, and you can blame coach Doug Pederson for some bad decisions in losses to the Cowboys and Giants. The Seahawks are coming off an emotional win at New England. Seattle has not been winning by big margins at home. Russell Wilson is healthy again and running well out of the pocket, but the Philadelphia defense can hold down the Seattle receivers. The Eagles shut down Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week.

■ By the numbers: Wilson threw for a season-high 348 yards against the Patriots, and he has five TD passes in the past two games. … Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its past five home games. … The Eagles are tied for third in scoring defense, allowing 17.8 points per game.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Seahawks by 4

Green Bay (4-5) at Washington (5-3-1)

■ Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

■ Line/Total: Redskins -3, 49½

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: The Packers have lost three in a row, but I think Aaron Rodgers will play well and they will put up some points against a mediocre Washington defense. Clay Matthews is coming back to help the Green Bay defense. I could be wrong, but I like the Packers to win this one.

■ By the numbers: Rodgers has 22 touchdown passes, eight more than Kirk Cousins of the Redskins. … Washington is 12-2 over the total in its past 14 games. … Green Bay is 6-12 ATS in its past 18 regular-season games. … The Packers pounded the Redskins 35-18 at Washington in the playoffs last season.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Packers by 6

Houston (6-3) vs. Oakland (7-2)

■ Where: Mexico City

■ Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

■ Line/Total: Raiders -6, 46

■ Mike Scalleat’s analysis: This line is two or three points too high. It’s lined like the game is in Oakland, not on a neutral field. Houston has been looking for a quarterback the past few years, and signing Brock Osweiler is looking like a bad deal. But the Texans can run the ball with Lamar Miller, and their defense is strong. The Raiders are 5-0 on the road, but I think they are favored by too much.

■ By the numbers: Osweiler, who has 11 touchdown passes and nine interceptions, threw for only 99 yards last week against Jacksonville. … Oakland’s Derek Carr has 17 TD passes with three interceptions. … Raiders coach Jack Del Rio is 11-2 ATS away from home. … Oakland scored 30, 30 and 33 points in its past three games. … The high altitude of Mexico City (7,382 feet above sea level) will help punts and field goals carry farther than in normal conditions, and look for the defenses to tire in the second half.

■ Scalleat’s pick: Raiders by 3