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NFL breakdown: Bengals easy prey for Luck, Colts

A couple of bad bounces put the Indianapolis Colts in an 0-2 hole, but it has not taken long for Andrew Luck to change the team’s fortunes.

The Colts carry a four-game win streak into today’s game against Cincinnati, and Luck leads the NFL with 1,987 yards passing and 17 touchdowns.

Indianapolis, back atop the AFC South, is a 3-point home favorite over the Bengals, who looked a lot tougher on paper a few weeks ago.

“What a difference a season makes as far as the Cincinnati defense is concerned. This was a top unit a year ago, and now it is near the bottom of the league,” Las Vegas handicapper Mark Franco said.

The Bengals rank 28th in total defense, allowing 398.8 yards per game, after getting shredded by Carolina and New England for a total of 80 points and 936 yards the past two weeks. And to make matters worse, several starters are banged up, including star linebacker Rey Maualuga, who is out with a hamstring injury.

Franco said there is “no question” Cincinnati misses former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who took the head coaching job with the Minnesota Vikings.

“The Colts are clicking on all cylinders offensively, and Luck has been a factor running out of the pocket for big plays,” said Franco, the fifth-place finisher in the SuperContest in 2003.

Indianapolis ranks No. 1 in total offense (444 yards per game) and is finally getting more production from its running attack. In their past four games, the Colts outgained their opponents by an average of 170 yards while scoring 34.5 points per game for four consecutive wins and covers. During the win streak, Indianapolis’ defense registered 16 sacks, most in the NFL.

Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is expected to be without his top receiver, A.J. Green, who is doubtful with a right big toe injury

“I don’t see the Cincinnati offense putting up big numbers without Green as a big-play threat,” Franco said, “and I’ll take Luck over Dalton any day of the week.”

Franco (FrancoSports.com) breaks down the rest of today’s Week 7 rotation:

■ Tennessee at Washington (-6): The Redskins have lost four straight games, the past three by double digits. Washington had big hopes for quarterback Kirk Cousins, but he has been the primary culprit, leading the league with eight interceptions. I had higher hopes for Cousins, who is 1-7 as an NFL starter. The Titans snapped their four-game skid by barely beating winless Jacksonville. I’ll pass on this game.

■ Miami at Chicago (-3): The matchup to watch is between the Bears’ big receivers and the Dolphins’ smallish secondary. Miami’s defense does not match up well, so Jay Cutler and the Bears should put up points. The Dolphins have a few favorable matchups they can exploit against the weak Chicago defense. Look for Miami running back Lamar Miller to have a big day. I think both teams move the ball, and that leads over the total of 48.

■ Cleveland (-5½) at Jacksonville: Laying points on the road is something the Browns rarely do. Cleveland’s offense is playing well, scoring 31 in a big win over Pittsburgh last week. I can’t trust the Jaguars, who are 0-6 with only one cover this season, but I can’t bring myself to lay it with the Browns. If anything, I lean over the total of 45.

■ Seattle (-6½) at St. Louis: Do the Seahawks have a Super Bowl hangover? Their second loss of the season, last week at home to Dallas, was a big surprise. The Rams and quarterback Austin Davis looked good Monday for the first half, but then showed their true colors with a horrible second half. My number is right on with Seattle laying 7, so I’ll be passing.

■ Carolina at Green Bay (-6½): With the Panthers ranking 26th in total defense, everyone can see Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers posting big numbers. The question is, can Carolina keep its offense going after scoring 37 and 31 points the past two weeks? Green Bay is giving up 154.5 yards per game on the ground, which should bode well for Cam Newton and the Carolina running attack. I like this over the total of 49.

■ Atlanta at Baltimore (-6½): The Falcons are a poor defensive team, and the Ravens’ offense is firing on all cylinders. After tossing five touchdown passes last week at Tampa Bay, Joe Flacco should have no problem moving the ball and scoring on a weak Atlanta defense that is yielding 28.3 points per game. Matt Ryan has more interceptions than touchdown passes on the road this season, and the Falcons’ offense has sputtered the past few weeks. I am on the Ravens to get a big win at home.

■ Minnesota at Buffalo (-5½): The Vikings totaled just 13 points in their past two games and will be facing a Buffalo defense that is limiting opponents to a league-low 67.5 rushing yards. Kyle Orton is averaging 303.5 passing yards in two starts, but the Bills are averaging 58.5 rushing yards and have turned the ball over four times since the veteran took over at quarterback. This should be an ugly game, and I’ll take a pass.

■ New Orleans at Detroit (-2): Saints quarterback Drew Brees has carved up Detroit in the past, but he could find it tougher to roll up the points and yards this time. Brees is 4-0 against the Lions, averaging 379 passing yards while throwing 14 touchdowns and one interception. What’s different this time is the Lions lead the NFL in pass defense (197.2) and total defense (270.7). Detroit has greatly increased its defensive pressure and leads the NFL with 20 sacks. New Orleans has lost six straight road games and eight of nine. With Lions wideout Calvin Johnson most likely out again, I see value under the total of 48.

■ Kansas City at San Diego (-4): Andy Reid has the most wins of any coach coming off a bye week with a 13-2 record, although both defeats came in the past two seasons. Even though his Chiefs are sitting at 2-3, they played well in narrow road losses to Denver and San Francisco. I’m looking for Kansas City to control the clock with its running game, and the Chargers could be looking ahead to Denver on Thursday. I’ll take the points in what should be a field-goal game.

■ New York Giants at Dallas (-6½): The Giants have scored an average of 35 points in their three wins, but fewer than 10 points per game in their three losses. I’ll admit I was not expecting the Cowboys to be this good, and I’m looking for them to run the ball right at the Giants. DeMarco Murray will attempt to become the first running back to begin a season with seven consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. Dallas swept the season series last year, and I’m on the Cowboys.

■ Arizona (-3½) at Oakland: Yes, the Cardinals are good, but they also are a little overrated, and this number shows it. The Raiders have what seems to be an up-and-coming quarterback in Derek Carr, who threw a franchise rookie-record four touchdown passes last week. I’ll look at backing the underdog or passing.

■ San Francisco at Denver (-6½): The 49ers had a short week to prepare for Peyton Manning and the Broncos, who cashed with a miracle cover last week against the Jets. I would have to side with Denver, which is playing good enough defense to force San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick into mistakes. Manning is closing in on the NFL record for career touchdown passes. Lay the points with the Broncos.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS

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