NFL Week 12: Falcons’ recent freefall gives reason to take Vikings

A year after he was sidelined by a suspension, Adrian Peterson is running with a vengeance for the Minnesota Vikings.

Peterson is the NFL's rushing leader with 1,006 yards, and Minnesota (7-3) sits atop the NFC North. But off a home loss to Green Bay, the Vikings hit the road today in need of a bounce-back effort against Atlanta.

The Falcons have flopped since a 5-0 start, losing four of their past five games while dropping six straight against the spread. Even worse, Devonta Freeman, the league's sixth-leading rusher, is out with a concussion.

"The Falcons have been in a funk, losing three in a row to opponents that were sub-.500 at the time, and Freeman's absence makes their offense one-dimensional," said handicapper Joe D'Amico of All American Sports Information (Aasiwins.com).

One number indicates Peterson might be in for a tough day. Atlanta ranks No. 1 in rush defense, allowing 87.4 yards per game. But D'Amico said that number is deceiving.

"Atlanta has faced a lot of rookie and backup quarterbacks lately, and its defense has not had to stop too many great running backs, either, and Peterson is the best in the league," D'Amico said.

The Vikings have won three straight road games and are 4-1 ATS on the road. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their past six November games.

Matt Ryan, who threw three interceptions in a loss to Indianapolis last week, is part of the reason for the Falcons' recent freefall.

Money started to surface Saturday on Atlanta, which is a 1½- to 2-point favorite, but D'Amico said to ride Peterson and the underdog Vikings to the betting window. He also recommends a smaller play under the total of 45½.

D'Amico breaks down the rest of today's Week 12 schedule:

New Orleans at Houston (-3): The Texans won and covered their past three while holding the opponents to 9.6 points per game. The Saints fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan after getting shredded for 49, 34 and 47 points their past three games. There's not much new coordinator Dennis Allen can do against Brian Hoyer and a good Texans passing attack. Drew Brees will get his yards and put points on the board, but in the end, New Orleans' lack of defense will be fatal. I'll go with Houston and lean over the total (48).

St. Louis at Cincinnati (-9): While I am not crazy about laying close to double digits in the NFL, there is not much of an argument that can be made to side with St. Louis. The Rams are 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road, averaging 15 points per game. Nick Foles is probably getting the start at quarterback. The Bengals are a well-balanced team, and after starting 8-0 and dropping their past two, they will be motivated. Cincinnati has been getting everyone paid, going 8-1-1 ATS. If you have to play this game, play the Bengals.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-3): Matt Hasselbeck's 3-0 run as the Colts' starter will come to an end here. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston is red hot off a five-touchdown performance. Doug Martin, No. 2 in the league with 941 yards rushing, is a bruising running back. The Buccaneers have won at New Orleans, Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Indianapolis defense has been a doormat, and its offense will miss Andrew Luck this week. Take the points with Tampa Bay.

N.Y. Giants (-2½) at Washington: New York has dominated this NFC East rivalry, taking the past five meetings straight up and ATS, including a 32-21 win in September. The Redskins have crushed bettors, failing to cover four of their past five. The Giants know a win here would put them in control of the division. With the line dropping below 3, lay the short number on the Giants.

Oakland (-1) at Tennessee: I don't have a problem backing a Raiders team trying to stop a three-game skid. The Titans (2-8) are 0-5 at home. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has struggled lately, and with several banged-up receivers, things could go from bad to worse for Tennessee. Oakland's Derek Carr has the receiving corps to keep the Titans' defensive backs honest. I'll bet on the silver and black.

Buffalo at Kansas City (-6): Both teams run the ball well and eat up a lot of clock, and both defenses have had success stopping the run. Under the total is a strong play, and it is 10-3 in the past 13 meetings in this series. The Bills are playing their third consecutive road game, but I lean to the 'dog getting this many points. Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor appears to be recovered from a right shoulder injury and is expected to start.

Miami at N.Y. Jets (-3½): The Jets have dropped four of their past five straight up while going 0-4-1 ATS. The injury bug has bitten this team, with cornerback Darrelle Revis (concussion) the latest victim. A division game should be enough motivation for the Dolphins, but revenge also will be a factor after the Jets whipped Miami 27-14 on Oct. 4 in London. The Jets are 7-19 ATS in their past 26 game in November, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven series meetings. Getting more than a field goal, Miami is my side, and I lean under the total (42½).

San Diego at Jacksonville (-4½): This is the toughest game on the board for me to handicap. Both teams have been unpredictable all season. The numbers favor the Jaguars, who have covered their past four games. The Chargers, off an embarrassing 30-point home loss to the Chiefs, are 3-13 ATS in their past 16 versus AFC opponents and 5-16 in their past 21 overall. I will stay away from this one. There are better bets on the card.

Arizona (-10) at San Francisco: A double-digit road favorite does not excite me, but Arizona has the No. 1 scoring offense (33.6 points per game) in the NFL. San Francisco ranks last at 13.9 points per game. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS on the road this season and can further strengthen their hold on the AFC West. If playing this game, I advise teasing the Cardinals down to minus-4.

Pittsburgh at Seattle (-3½): A bye week gave quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers time to rest, heal and prepare. Pittsburgh has a fast linebacker corps that can manhandle a Seahawks offensive line that has yielded 25 sacks. Oddsmakers have inflated the Seattle lines all season. The Steelers are the play.

New England (-3) at Denver: Peyton Manning will sit again, giving Brock Osweiler a second consecutive start. Osweiler was 20-for-27 passing with 250 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-15 victory over Chicago. The New England receiving corps is depleted, and its ground attack is limited, so a lot of pressure will be on Tom Brady to make plays. Denver's defense will keep this game tight and allow Osweiler the opportunity to get a win. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games versus the Patriots. The line is bouncing between 2½ and 3. Take the home 'dog and get the best number.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Las Vegas Review-Journal