NFL Week 14 betting breakdown
Kelly Stewart, Kellyinvegas.com, @kellyinvegas
Colts (3-9) at Bills (6-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Off
Analysis: With Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor day to day, the thought of backing Nathan Peterman is pretty scary, especially if I’m laying points. The Bills are chasing the Jaguars and Ravens for an AFC wild-card spot. Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been sacked 47 times in 11 starts and might have a rough Sunday if the Colts are forced to start their third-string center.
By the numbers: Indianapolis is 4-12-1 ATS in its past 17 games at Buffalo. … The favorite is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings. … The Colts are on a 27-11 over run on the road, and the Bills are on a 16-5 over uptick at home.
Pick: Bills, 24-21
Vikings (10-2) at Panthers (8-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -2½, 39½
Analysis: Coach Mike Zimmer and the Vikings have been on an incredible against the spread run, going 40-15 ATS in their past 55 games. Hence my eagerness to bet them laying 2½ points on the road. Case Keenum has proven his worth under center, and Minnesota’s defense is firing on all cylinders. While you are paying a premium to bet the Vikings, they’ll still get the job done in Carolina.
By the numbers: The Vikings have covered seven straight games and are 9-3 ATS this season. … Minnesota is on a 36-17 ATS run vs. the NFC.
Pick: Vikings, 21-17
Bears (3-9) at Bengals (5-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bengals -6½, 38½
Analysis: The Bengals are off a hard-fought game with the Steelers. They blew a 17-point lead over Pittsburgh on Monday night and lost on a last-second field goal. I love fading teams the week after a big rivalry game. The Bears are coming off a five-game slide, including an ugly loss to San Francisco at home last week. Chicago’s stock is low, which means it might be time to buy.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 1-7 ATS as favorites after facing the Steelers. … The under is 7-3 in Chicago’s past 10 games as an underdog.
Pick: Bengals, 17-14
Packers (6-6) at Browns (0-12)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -3, 39½
Analysis: My immediate thought on this one: trap game. The Packers and Brett Hundley showed promise in last week’s overtime home win over the Buccaneers, but now they’re headed to Cleveland, a team that’s desperately trying to avoid an 0-16 season. The Browns finally covered a game last week as 13½-point underdogs in a 19-10 loss to the Chargers. With Josh Gordon back in the lineup, look for them to finally get a win.
By the numbers: Cleveland has gone under in 10 of its past 11 home games and is on a 36-12-3 under run in December.
Pick: Browns, 21-20
49ers (2-10) at Texans (4-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -3, 44½
Analysis: The 49ers are looking for their second straight road win after Jimmy Garoppolo led them to a 15-14 victory in Chicago last week in his debut as starting quarterback. He wins the quarterback matchup over Tom Savage, who averages two turnovers per game. The Texans are riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball, but I’m still not backing San Francisco getting less than a field goal on the road.
By the numbers: San Francisco is 2-14 in its past 16 road games. … Houston is on a 20-8 under run in December.
Pick: Texans, 24-21
Raiders (6-6) at Chiefs (6-6)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Chiefs -4, 48½
Analysis: Poor Chiefs fans have taken a beating lately. Kansas City has dropped six of its past seven games after a 5-0 start. This is a revenge game for the Chiefs after the Raiders were gifted a win in the Black Hole in October. Oakland hasn’t swept the season series since 2012. Look for Kansas City to take advantage of a bad Oakland defense and bounce back.
By the numbers: The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games vs. the AFC West. … The road team is 21-8 ATS in the past 29 meetings. … The under is 8-1 in the past nine meetings in Kansas City and is 41-19 in the Chiefs’ past 60 home games.
Pick: Chiefs, 31-21
Lions (6-5) at Buccaneers (6-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Off
Analysis: Waiting to get a number on this one because of Matthew Stafford’s hand injury. Sounds as if he will be a go after being upgraded Friday to questionable. The Lions are two games back in the race for a wild-card spot. Tampa Bay is 2-8-1 ATS in its past 11 games, and neither of those two covers belong to Jameis Winston.
By the numbers: Detroit has covered five straight at Tampa Bay and is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings. … The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings.
Pick: Lions, 24-16
Cowboys (6-6) at Giants (2-10)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Cowboys -4, 41½
Analysis: The Cowboys have covered one of their past six games against the Giants, but this isn’t the New York team we’ve seen in the past. I’m not sure it matters who’s coaching or playing quarterback for the Giants because they have no weapons and a bad offensive line.
By the numbers: Dallas is on a 16-6 under run on the road, and the Giants are on a 7-2 under run at home. … The over is 12-5 in the past 17 meetings.
Pick: Cowboys, 31-10
Titans (8-4) at Cardinals (5-7)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Titans -3, 43
Analysis: The season can’t end soon enough for the Cardinals. Injuries across the board have ruined any chance of making the playoffs two years after advancing to the NFC title game. But road games have not been friendly to Marcus Mariota and the Titans. The Tennessee quarterback has thrown nine of his 12 interceptions on the road this season and only three touchdowns.
By the numbers: Tennessee is on a 1-4 ATS skid on the road. … The Titans are 7-19 ATS in their past 26 road games.
Pick: Cardinals, 14-13
Jets (5-7) at Broncos (3-9)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Jets -1, 41½
Analysis: The Jets knocked off Kansas City as 4½-point home underdogs last week and are now suddenly laying a point on the road? Not so fast. The Broncos are in a world of hurt, and everyone knows that. Denver has lost eight straight, it doesn’t have a competent quarterback, and it’s coming off an embarrassing 26-point loss to the Dolphins. This is the Broncos’ first home game in three weeks and a chance to avoid their worst losing streak in almost 50 years.
By the numbers: Denver is 13-6 in its past 19 home games. … The Jets are on a 3-8-1 ATS slide on grass.
Pick: Broncos, 21-17
Redskins (5-7) at Chargers (6-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -6, 46
Analysis: The Chargers had no business being almost two-touchdown favorites at home last week over the Browns. This week, they have no business being a touchdown favorite over the rested Redskins. I know Washington looked terrible in its 38-14 loss to the Cowboys, but don’t be surprised to see Kirk Cousins limit his mistakes and get the win.
By the numbers: The Chargers are on a 2-8 ATS slide at home. … The over is 25-8 in the Redskins’ past 33 games and 19-7 in their past 26 road games.
Pick: Redskins, 24-21
Seahawks (8-4) at Jaguars (8-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Jaguars -2½, 40
Analysis: The old adage about West Coast teams traveling East might be the right look here. Seattle is off a big home win over the Eagles and now it’s a 2½-point underdog at Jacksonville? The Jaguars have vastly improved this season under coach Doug Marrone, and this is their chance to prove they’re for real. The Seahawks have no ground attack and an average offensive line.
By the numbers: Jacksonville has won four of its past five home games. … The Seahawks are on a 2-5-1 ATS skid on grass. … The under is 14-5 in Seattle’s past 19 games in December.
Pick: Jaguars, 24-19
Eagles (10-2) at Rams (9-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Rams -1, 47
Analysis: The Eagles were handed their second loss of the season Sunday by the Seahawks. Now that they’re a little more down to earth, I would consider playing them in this spot. Philadelphia took a page out of Bill Belichick’s playbook and stayed on the West Coast all week. Jared Goff is playing great football, with 11 TDs and two interceptions in his past five games. The Eagles defense will be the difference here.
By the numbers: Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games and 6-1 ATS in its past seven games against the Rams. … The over is 14-4 in the Eagles’ past 18 road games.
Pick: Eagles, 27-24
Ravens (7-5) at Steelers (10-2)
Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Steelers -5, 43½
Analysis: The Ravens have been gaining momentum while winning four of their past five games, including shutouts of Green Bay and Miami. The Steelers are coming off a comeback win over the Bengals and have the Patriots on deck. While Baltimore isn’t flashy or even fun to watch at times, this should be a classic at Heinz Field.
By the numbers: The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 games vs. the AFC North and 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight divisional road games. … The under is 19-8 in Pittsburgh’s past 27 games vs. the AFC and 13-5-1 vs. the AFC North.
Pick: Steelers, 24-21
Patriots (10-2) at Dolphins (5-7)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Patriots -11, 47.5
Analysis: If you’ve been betting the Patriots, you’ve been laying a premium with them for five weeks and it’s been paying off. But it’s time for the books to make some money back. The Dolphins are coming off a blowout of a bad Denver team and are getting no respect for it with this line. With the Steelers on deck, this is a look-ahead spot for the Patriots.
By the numbers: The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings and 9-2 in Miami’s past 11 home games. … The home team is 10-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings. … The Dolphins are on an 0-8 ATS slide on “Monday Night Football.”
Pick: Patriots, 31-24
