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NFL Week 6 betting breakdown

Handicapper Bernie Fratto breaks down Week 6 of the NFL season.

Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Houston Texans (2-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Texans -9, 47

Analysis: Welcome to the first Spell-Check Bowl. Both teams drafted a quarterback with the same name, but they spell it differently. The Texans QB spells it “franchise.” The Browns rookie quarterback spells it “benched.” Houston is angry on the heels of its 42-34 prime-time loss to the Chiefs on national TV.

By the numbers: The Browns are 1-4 against the spread and 6-24 ATS in their last 30 overall. … Houston is 4-1 in their last five coming off a straight-up loss. … The Texans are 19-6 ATS when they gained more than 350 yards in their previous game.

Pick: Texans, 30-13

New England Patriots (3-2) at New York Jets (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Patriots -9½, 47½

Analysis: If, in August, I would have told you this game would be for first place in the AFC East, I would have been first in line for a frontal lobotomy. But the Jets have won three straight, and quarterback Josh McCown is completing 71 percent of his passes. The Patriots beat the Jets 41-3 last season, but they miss Julian Edelman, who was targeted on 28 percent of his routes last season and had 24 catches that converted third downs. This game is tricky, as New York is confident.

By the numbers: The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. teams with a winning record. … New England leads the NFL in total yards and passing yards. … The Patriots are on a 8-1 over run.

Pick: Patriots, 27-20

Detroit Lions (3-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Saints -4, 50

Analysis: The equation is simple. Will the Saints finish above .500 this season? If so, past is prologue for Lions backers. Matthew Stafford is 5-46 overall and 1-21 on the road vs. teams that finish above .500. A sprained ankle and hamstring injury also may curtail Stafford’s effectiveness. The rested Saints are coming off a bye, and Drew Brees has yet to throw an interception while completing 69 percent of his passes. New Orleans is riding a two-game winning streak, and it’s hard to believe Detroit can win three straight road games after winning at the New York Giants and Minnesota.

By the numbers: The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. … The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. … The over is 11-3-1 in New Orleans’ last 15 home games and 8-2 in the Saints’ last 10 as a home favorite.

Pick: Saints, 26-21

Chicago Bears (1-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Ravens -6½, 39

Analysis: It’s been a weird start for the Ravens, but they’re still 3-2. Their offense got on track last week vs. the Raiders, and the defense made some plays. Enter Mitchell Trubisky making his first start on the road against some experienced corners. Can the Bears decent defense keep them in this one? Not with all their injuries.

By the numbers: The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. … The under is 6-2 in Baltimore’s last eight home games.

Pick: Ravens, 28-17

Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Packers -3, 46

Analysis: It’s the second straight road game for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, fresh from departing Dallas with a 35-31 victory as 2½-point underdogs. Balanced Green Bay is sixth in the league in scoring and 11th in total defense. The Packers have cashed 12 of their last 20 games against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense will keep this interesting for a while.

By the numbers: The under is 9-2 in Minnesota’s last 11 home games in October and 17-5 in its last 22 games against the NFC North. … The over is 10-1 in Green Bay’s last 11 games vs. the NFC and 7-1 in its last eight games as a road favorite.

Pick: Packers, 24-20

Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -12½, 45½

Analysis: The visiting Dolphins are a hot mess on and off the field. I won’t mention any videos, but I won’t ignore the fact they’re last in the NFL in yards per game. Atlanta is coming off a bye and will be eager to rebound after a home loss to Buffalo. Matt Ryan is completing 66 percent of his passes. Miami has one of the NFL’s worst offenses and face a good defense.

By the numbers: The Falcons have covered six of the last seven meetings against Miami. … Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in games following a straight-up loss.

Pick: Falcons, 39-17

San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Redskins -10½, 46

Analysis: Dropped passes, false starts, untimely penalties, blown assignments — other than that, this team is in sync with Kyle Shanahan and the new regime. Oh, and did I mention San Francisco is playing its third straight road game? The Niners have lost every game, and four of them were by three points or fewer.

By the numbers: Washington is 9-3 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing record. … The over is 14-4 in the Redskins’ last 18 games vs. the NFC.

Pick: Redskins, 30-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -1½, 45½

Analysis: Tampa Bay has not generated a pass rush this season. That’s good news for stationary Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer. But the Bucs still can be stingy on defense, and quarterback Jameis Winston has three dangerous weapons, led by running back Doug Martin. Through the air, the Bucs are getting their share of yardage, just not points. Something tells me Winston has his best game of the season, as Tampa Bay takes some shots down the field.

By the numbers: Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games. … The Bucs have gone under the total in four of the last five meetings.

Pick: Buccaneers, 24-20

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Jaguars -2½, 42½

Analysis: Jacksonville scored a terrific road win in last week’s 30-9 drubbing of the Steelers. But the final score was a bit misleading, as Pittsburgh led 9-7 before Jacksonville compiled back-to-back pick-sixes and Leonard Fournette busted a meaningless 90-yard TD run with about a minute left. The Rams travel east after engaging the Seahawks in a fist fight in a phone booth last week. Los Angeles will head to London next week, and teams on the road the week before that trip sometimes struggle. But the Rams, who are averaging 30.4 points, are dangerous as a underdog. Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will scheme against Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles and frustrate him the entire game.

By the numbers: The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings. … The under is 35-17-1 in the Rams’ last 53 road games. … Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.

Pick: Rams, 27-26

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Chiefs -4, 47

Analysis: A bounce-back spot for the Steelers, who have won five of the last seven matchups with the Chiefs, including the playoffs. But after Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high five interceptions in a 30-9 loss to the Jaguars, it’s hard to imagine that the Steelers will be capable of rallying at Arrowhead Stadium. They’re facing a red-hot Chiefs team that has shown its offense can pretty much do what it wants in averaging a league-leading 33 points a game.

By the numbers: The under is 21-7 in Pittsburgh’s last 28 games overall and 22-7 in its last 29 road games. … The under is 39-18 in Kansas City’s last 57 home games. … The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Pick: Chiefs, 23-19

Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Raiders -3½, 50½

Analysis: Guess who’s back? Derek Carr. And the Raiders will need him. Although Oakland won both meetings last season, the road team covered in each game. What is it about the Chargers? They compete. They tease you. They show life. But they’re 4-12 overall since the beginning of last season in games decided by less than a touchdown.

By the numbers: The Chargers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall but 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. … The underdog is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings. … The over is 20-5-1 in Oakland’s last 26 home games.

Pick: Raiders 27, Chargers 26

New York Giants (0-5) at Denver Broncos (3-1)

Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Broncos -11½, 39½

Analysis: Sports Authority Field is where NFL offenses go to die. Just ask Von Miller and a unit that likes to live in their opponents’ backfield with 10 sacks through four games. Unfortunately, the Giants don’t even have an offense. Or any wide receivers. But the rules state they have to play the game.

By the numbers: Denver is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games played in October. … The under is 17-8-1 in the Broncos’ last 26 games as a favorite.

Pick: Broncos, 27-10

Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Time: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Off

Analysis: The Colts have won 11 in a row in this series and 16 of 17. But those wins were engineered by Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Jacoby Brissett has played reasonably well, but can he win one on the road? The status of Marcus Mariota is cryptic, but it appears as if he will play.

By the numbers: The over is 25-9 in Indianapolis’ last 34 road games and 18-5 in its last 23 games on grass. … The Colts are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Pick: Titans, 21-17

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