NFL Week 7 betting breakdown

Analysis by Andy Iskoe, TheLogicalApproach.com

Tennessee Titans (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Titans -6, 45½

Analysis: Cleveland is 1-5 against the spread, but the quants and many professional bettors continue to back the Browns. The Titans also have been disappointing but to a lesser degree. It’s hard to make a case for Cleveland, but it’s equally difficult to lay points with the Titans on the road. A better case can be made for the under. Cleveland has topped 18 points just once, and the Titans have scored 16 or fewer three times.

By the numbers: Cleveland is 1-17 straight up and 5-13 ATS since the start of last season. … The Browns have lost an NFL-worst 2.67 turnovers per game.

Pick: Tennessee, 24-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jaguars -3, 43

Analysis: Jacksonville has alternated wins and losses in its first six games and is coming off a home loss to the Rams. The Jaguars have looked brilliant in their three wins, outscoring Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh by a combined 103-23. Jacksonville’s stout defense could confuse young Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett with varied looks and pressure.

By the numbers: Jacksonville leads the NFL in rushing with 166 yards per game. … Indianapolis ranks 31st in defensive yards per play allowed (6.27).

Pick: Jacksonville, 31-17

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Steelers -5½, 40½

Analysis: Cincinnati returns from its bye having won two straight after an 0-3 start. Pittsburgh rebounded from its stunning home loss to Jacksonville with a road win at Kansas City. Both teams have average offenses and outstanding defenses. The Bengals rank first in defensive yards per play (4.2) and the Steelers third (4.6 ypp).

By the numbers: The teams have combined for a 9-2 under mark. … The Steelers lead the league in pass defense (154 ypg), and the Bengals are second (160 ypg). … Cincinnati has the No. 2 scoring defense (16.6 ppg), and Pittsburgh is fourth (17 ppg).

Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-13

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Vikings -5½, 39

Analysis: Baltimore has lost two turnovers per game and was again plagued by turnovers in last week’s overtime home loss to Chicago. But the Ravens are second in the NFL in forcing 2.3 turnovers per game. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in yards per play allowed. Minnesota has held each of its past four foes to 17 points or fewer, and the better play is under the total.

By the numbers: Minnesota has held all six foes to 115 rushing yards or fewer and fewer than 160 net passing yards.

Pick: Minnesota, 24-10

New York Jets (3-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Dolphins -3, 38½

Analysis: The Jets played well in losing to the Patriots, with a controversial fumble ruling perhaps costing them a shot at the upset. Miami trailed 17-0 at Atlanta before holding the Falcons scoreless in the second half en route to a 20-17 win. The Jets upset Miami 20-6 in Week 3, but the Dolphins are the better team and should exact revenge. Miami was 1-4 last season before finishing 10-6 and making the playoffs.

By the numbers: The Dolphins have held all five opponents to 20 points or fewer, and the Jets have scored more than 20 points once.

Pick: Miami, 23-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bills -3, 45

Analysis: Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is expected to start after injuring his shoulder in last week’s loss at Arizona. The Bills have won both of their home games over the Jets and Denver. Buffalo has the better rushing attack, an offense that has avoided turnovers and a stingier defense. The Buccaneers are on a 0-4 ATS skid.

By the numbers: Tampa Bay is 30th in the league in rushing yards per game (82) and yards per play allowed (6.04). … Buffalo is 2-0 straight up and ATS at home, and Tampa Bay is 0-2 straight up and ATS on the road.

Pick: Buffalo, 24-17

Carolina Panthers (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Panthers -3, 41

Analysis: Chicago is 2-4 but could be 4-2, suffering competitive home losses to Atlanta and Minnesota. The Panthers are the better team, but right now the Bears are energized and playing with enthusiasm behind rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Linebacker Luke Kuechly, the Panthers’ best defender, won’t play because of a concussion.

By the numbers: Carolina is seventh in passing defense, allowing 197 yards per game, and Chicago is eighth (198 ypg). … The Bears are third in the NFL in rushing with 136 yards per game. The Panthers are fifth in rushing defense, allowing 83.0 ypg.

Pick: Chicago, 17-16

New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Saints -4, 47

Analysis: The value of Aaron Rodgers is well illustrated by this point spread, which was adjusted an unprecedented 10 points after the Green Bay quarterback broke his collarbone in Sunday’s loss at Minnesota. Early action made it a 12-point move, as the Saints were bet up to 6½ at some books before a Packers buyback began. It’s tempting to play the Packers for several reasons. New Orleans’ defense is improved, but playing on the grass at Lambeau Field is far different from playing on artificial turf at home. Green Bay backup quarterback Brett Hundley will have a full week of preparation and won’t be asked to win the game by himself.

By the numbers: Green Bay has not allowed more than 245 net passing yards in a game. … New Orleans has won and covered its past three games.

Pick: Green Bay, 27-24

Arizona Cardinals (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-2) at London

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Rams -3, 46

Analysis: Arizona almost blew a 31-0 lead at home last week over Tampa Bay, but held on for its first cover of the season. The Cardinals defense has been average, but still rates better than the Rams’ in several key categories. That makes getting a field goal at a neutral site against a division rival attractive.

By the numbers: After Arizona rushed for a total of 259 yards in its first five games, it rushed for 160 against Tampa Bay. … The Rams are on a 0-3 ATS skid as favorites.

Pick: Arizona, 24-23

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (0-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Cowboys -6, 48½

Analysis: The 49ers lost their fifth straight game by three points or fewer in last week’s 26-24 defeat at Washington. A case certainly can be made for taking the points with San Francisco, which is 4-2 ATS. But the bye week allowed the Cowboys to tweak what has been a leaky defense and fine tune the offense.

By the numbers: The 49ers have scored more than 28 points once in their past 39 games.

Pick: Dallas, 30-20

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at New York Giants (1-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Seahawks -4, 39½

Analysis: After New York rushed for a total of 237 yards in its first four games, it has run for 152 and 148 the past two weeks. Seattle is 1-2 on the road. The Giants don’t have to win to cash a ticket against a Seahawks team that hasn’t performed well on offense.

By the numbers: The Giants were held to fewer than 20 points in eight straight games before scoring at least 22 points in each of their past four. … Only one team has topped 18 points against the Seahawks this season.

Pick: Seattle, 20-17

Denver Broncos (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Pick, 40½

Analysis: The Chargers have won two straight road games after starting the season 0-4. Their opening loss was at Denver, which led 24-7 entering the fourth quarter before holding on for a 24-21 win. The Chargers have had no home-crowd advantage in their small temporary home, and the Broncos might enjoy the majority of the crowd support. The Chargers have the edge at quarterback with Philip Rivers over Trevor Siemian.

By the numbers: Denver leads the NFL in total defense, allowing 262.0 yards per game. … The Chargers have the league’s No. 31 rushing defense, allowing 5.0 yards per carry.

Pick: Denver, 24-20

Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at New England Patriots (4-2)

Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Patriots -3, 56½

Analysis: The Super Bowl LI rematch sees both teams coming off games that somewhat resembled the title matchup in which the Patriots rallied from a 28-3 deficit to win 34-28 in overtime. Last week, the Falcons blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home and were held scoreless in the second half of a 20-17 loss to Miami. New England trailed 14-0 at the Jets but came back to win 24-17. Atlanta sandwiched two home losses around its bye week and is finally showing signs of the Super Bowl hangover it had avoided in starting 3-0.

By the numbers: New England ranks last in total defense, allowing 441.0 yards per game, and 30th in scoring defense, allowing 26.0 ppg. … The Patriots lead the league in yards per game (412) and passing yards per game (310).

Pick: New England, 31-24

Washington Redskins (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)

Time: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Eagles -4½, 48½

Analysis: No team is playing better than NFC-leading Philadelphia, which won at Washington in the season opener, 30-17. The stats for the Eagles and Redskins are similar, which makes taking the points look attractive. But the preferred play might be the over, as Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and Washington’s Kirk Cousins have been effective.

By the numbers: Both teams rank in the top 10 in rushing offense, rushing defense and passing yards gained per game.

Pick: Philadelphia, 27-24