Handicapper Rocky Atkinson (RocketMan.net) breaks down Week 9 of the NFL season.
Broncos (3-4) at Eagles (7-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Eagles -7½, 42
Analysis: Philadelphia is arguably the best team in the NFL. Denver is 1-13 straight up and 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of 7½ to 10 points. The Broncos are 0-3 straight up this season on the road, where they’re scoring 11.7 points per game. Denver also has lost its last three games overall while scoring 9.7 points per game. Philadelphia is 4-0 at home, where it averages 32.8 points.
By the numbers: Philadelphia is averaging 129.2 rushing yards per game and 242.5 passing ypg for a total of 371.8 ypg. … Denver has the NFL’s No. 1 defense, allowing 261 total ypg. Look at taking the under.
Pick: Eagles, 17-14
Rams (5-2) at Giants (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Rams -4, 42
Analysis: The Rams have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprise teams, and the Giants have been one of the biggest disappointments. Los Angeles is scoring 30.3 points per game overall and 34 ppg on the road. The Rams are 4-0 on the road, but the Giants need a win here in front of their home crowd.
By the numbers: New York is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. … Los Angeles is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 vs. the NFC. … The under is 11-5 in New York’s last 16 games and 10-4 in the Giants last 14 games as an underdog.
Pick: Giants, 28-21
Buccaneers (2-5) at Saints (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Saints -7, 52
Analysis: Tampa Bay and New Orleans have two of the NFL’s top four total offenses and passing attacks. Both teams are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Buccaneers are 30th in pass defense (274.7 ypg) and 29th in total defense (386.4 ypg). But look for quarterback Jameis Winston to have a big game and lead Tampa Bay to an upset that goes over the total.
By the numbers: The over is 12-4-1 in New Orleans’ last 17 home games. … The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. the NFC South.
Pick: Tampa Bay, 31-28
Bengals (3-4) at Jaguars (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jaguars -5½, 39
Analysis: Jacksonville leads the league in rushing, with 169 ypg, behind rookie running back Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars are 0-2 at home while allowing 32 ppg. But Jacksonville, led by its suddenly dynamic defense, is favored for a reason. The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after a bye week.
By the numbers: Jacksonville has allowed 12 ppg in its last three games and leads the NFL in scoring defense (15.7 ppg). … Cincinnati is fifth in the league in total defense (295 ypg), and Jacksonville is sixth (300.3 ypg).
Pick: Jaguars, 24-7
Falcons (4-3) at Panthers (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -1½, 42½
Analysis: Good matchup between the past two Super Bowl losers pits the high-powered Atlanta offense against a good Carolina defense. The Panthers are No. 2 in the NFL in total defense (264 ypg) and have the No. 4 rushing defense (81.6 ypg). The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings.
By the numbers: Julius Peppers had a sack in Carolina’s 17-3 win over Tampa Bay to move past Pro Football Hall of Famer Chris Doleman for the fourth-most sacks (151) in NFL history.
Pick: Panthers, 23-14
Colts (2-6) at Texans (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -7, 46
Analysis: The big story is Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending torn ACL in practice Thursday. One thing that didn’t change was how bad the Colts defense is. Indianapolis is 31st in the league in passing defense (290.4 ypg) and total defense (406.8 ypg). Indianapolis is 0-4 on the road, where it gives up 38 ppg. Even without Watson, Houston will score enough to cover the adjusted spread.
By the numbers: The over is 45-22 in the Colts’ last 67 road games. … The under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. … The Texans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the AFC South. … Indianapolis is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Pick: Texans, 23-9
Ravens (4-4) at Titans (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -3½, 43
Analysis: Baltimore’s offense is sputtering, averaging a league-low 152.9 passing ypg and 279.8 total ypg, which ranks next to last in the NFL. The under is on a 28-9 uptick when Baltimore plays the AFC South. Tennessee is on a 12-36-4 ATS slide against the AFC and is 26th in the league in scoring defense (24.7 ppg). The underdog is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
By the numbers: The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings. … The Ravens are on a 9-4 ATS run vs. the AFC and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on grass. … Baltimore is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Pick: Ravens, 17-14
Cardinals (3-4) at 49ers (0-8)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -2½, 39
Analysis: Arizona is 1-6 ATS and 23rd in the NFL in passing defense (246.9 ypg). San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as a home underdog of three points or fewer. The Cardinals are scoring 11.5 ppg on the road and are 27th in the league in scoring overall with 17 ppg. The 49ers get to celebrate their first win of the season.
By the numbers: Arizona is last in the league in rushing at 63.4 ypg. … San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC West. … The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Pick: 49ers, 17-13
Redskins (3-4) at Seahawks (5-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -7, 45
Analysis: Seattle has the NFL’s third-ranked passing attack (272.7 ypg) and is seventh in total offense (370.3 ypg). Washington has allowed 30 ppg in its four-game ATS losing streak and is 28th in the league in scoring defense (25.7 ppg). Seattle is one of three teams that is undefeated at home (3-0), where it averages 33 ppg. Seattle should roll in this one behind a big game from Russell Wilson.
By the numbers: The favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS run in the series. … The over is 22-6 in Washington’s last 28 games overall and 17-5 in its last 22 as an underdog.
Pick: Seahawks, 35-17
Chiefs (6-2) at Cowboys (4-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Cowboys -2½, 53½
Analysis: Kansas City has an explosive offense that’s third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 ppg) and total offense (377.9 ypg) and sixth in passing (255.1 ypg). Dallas has the league’s second-ranked rushing attack (150.6 ypg) and is eighth in total offense (369.9 ypg). The difference will be defense, and the Chiefs have one of the league’s worst against the run (131.1 ypg) and overall (392.3 ypg).
By the numbers: The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. … Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games and is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. … Dallas is on a 10-19-1 ATS slide at AT&T Stadium.
Pick: Cowboys, 38-28
Raiders (3-5) at Dolphins (4-3)
Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Raiders -3, 44
Analysis: Miami is last in the league in scoring (13.1 ppg) and total offense (252.4 ypg). The Dolphins have given up 28.3 ppg in their last three games, and Oakland badly needs a win.
By the numbers: The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. … The over is 8-3 in Oakland’s last 11 games as a favorite and 6-2 in Miami’s last eight home games. … The under is 6-2 in the Dolphins’ last eight games and 6-2 in the Raiders’ last eight road games.
Pick: Raiders, 34-13
Lions (3-4) at Packers (4-3)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Lions -2, 43½
Analysis: Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy is 18-4 against Detroit and will find a way to win this one with an extra week to prepare. The Lions are on a 5-15 ATS slide as a road favorite of three points or fewer. Detroit has lost its last three games while allowing an average of 33 points. Green Bay is 3-1 straight up at home.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 25-1 straight up and 18-6 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. Detroit. … The Lions are on a 2-11 ATS slide on grass. … The Packers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a bye. … The favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
Pick: Packers, 21-20