Patriots favored by 3 over Falcons, total 59 in Super Bowl LI
By the end of the Patriots’ 36-17 win over the Steelers in Sunday’s AFC title game, the crowd at Gillette Stadium was chanting “Where is Roger?”
The Tom Brady “Deflategate” revenge tour is headed to Super Bowl LI in Houston, where the New England quarterback might end up being handed some hardware by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, who suspended him for the first four games this season for his role in the ball-deflating scandal.
Goodell opted to attend the game in Atlanta for the second consecutive week Sunday rather than incur the wrath of the fans in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
But the commissioner won’t be able to avoid Brady and Co. at the Super Bowl, where a win by the Patriots would make for an awkward Lombardi Trophy presentation.
The Deflategate redemption is one of the storylines for Super Bowl LI — a k a “51” for the vast majority of the world that isn’t fluent in Roman numerals.
New England opened as a 3-point favorite over the explosive Falcons, who whipped the Packers 44-21 in the NFC title game at the Georgia Dome.
“I’d like to be at a different number, at 2½ or 3½, but 3 is a good starting point,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. “We don’t want it to be a push. We’ll put a hook on it sooner or later, once we see how the public is weighing in and see how the wiseguys go.”
The books posted the Super Bowl line early in the fourth quarter of the late game, when the Patriots were leading 33-9.
William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich expects the number to stay at 3 or 3½ until kickoff.
“I think it would only go to 3½,” he said. “I don’t think it will go to 2½.”
The total is 59, making it the highest in Super Bowl history.
“People love scoring and these two can score as good as anyone,” Bogdanovich said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if it went a little higher.”
Two of the league’s highest-scoring teams, the Patriots and Falcons both easily covered as 6-point favorites and both games also went over the total as postseason favorites improved to 8-2 against the spread and the over improved to 7-3.
“It’s kind of a small snapshot of what the season has been as of late,” said Rood, who took a $150,000 wager on New England. “The worst-case scenario for both games was the favorite-and-over and that’s what we got. Everybody pounded the over in both games.
“The good news is we busted out half the teasers. That was the only thing that saved us. I’m shocked we pushed out a little bit of a win today. We should be looking at a fairly large loss. There was a lot of money-line on the Packers. That’s where we defused the disaster.”
Ryan threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns and Julio Jones had nine catches for 180 yards and two scores for Atlanta, which led 24-0 at halftime in putting an emphatic end to Green Bay’s eight-game win streak.
Aaron Rodgers couldn’t rescue his injury-riddled squad this time, but he did deliver a victory for over bettors when his 1-yard touchdown pass to Jared Cook with 6:43 left made the score 44-21, pushing the number over the NFL playoff record-high total of 61. The over is 15-2-1 in Falcons games this season.
Brady threw for 384 yards and three TDs and Chris Hogan had nine catches for 180 yards and two scores for the Patriots, who broke open a 17-9 halftime lead by scoring 19 consecutive points to open the second half. New England improved to 15-3 ATS this season.
Like Rodgers, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger bailed out over bettors when he threw a 30-yard touchdown pass to Cobi Hamilton with 3:36 left and added a 2-point conversion pass to DeAngelo Williams for the final total of 53 points. The 2-point pass was crucial to some bettors who got the early number of 51½.
Brady, who subtly denied using his suspension as motivation, is trying to become the first quarterback ever to win five Super Bowls.
Ryan, who played for Boston College, is trying to bring the long-suffering sports city of Atlanta only its second title in 168 combined major professional sports seasons (1995 Braves).
“Atlanta’s going to have to do everything perfect to beat this New England team,” Rood said. “New England just seems to have a horseshoe in the right spot. Anything they do seems to be working out right now.
“I think it’s going to be a really good game. Atlanta is kind of the hottest thing going right now and New England is always going to be a tough out.”
Bogdanovich expects the handle to surpass last year’s Nevada record of $132.5 million.
“Sports betting is at an all-time high and the economy is fairly decent,” he said. “I think it’ll be a record, no problem.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
