San Francisco worthy pick in NFC West clash

In his second year as an NFL coach, Jim Harbaugh is boldly doing things his way and tuning out the second-guessers.

Harbaugh made a risky midseason quarterback switch to Colin Kaepernick, then led the San Francisco 49ers to New England to hammer Bill Belichick and humble Tom Brady. Harbaugh is taking no prisoners, whether it's the Patriots or Pete Carroll.

The most intriguing game on today's schedule is a power struggle atop the NFC West. The visiting 49ers (10-3-1) are trying to fend off a challenge by Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks (9-5) and take another step toward securing a first-round bye in the playoffs.

The Seahawks have scored a total of 108 points the past two weeks, and opponents are winless in Seattle this season, but DonBest.com handicapper and radio host Brian Blessing is not convinced.

"It has been a great story, but Seattle has been thumping the weak sisters of the league," Blessing said of Buffalo and Arizona, the Seahawks' last two victims. "A letdown is a concern, but if the Niners can travel cross-country and beat the Patriots in their backyard, I certainly like their chances against the overrated Seahawks."

Kaepernick passed for four touchdowns against New England to help validate Harbaugh's decision. Carroll made an impressive quarterback gamble of his own by starting rookie Russell Wilson, who has 21 touchdown passes.

In a pick 'em game, Blessing, host of "The Linemakers" on SportingNews.com, is picking the hotter coach. Harbaugh is 3-0 against Carroll in the NFL.

"Going back to his days at Stanford, Harbaugh has owned Carroll, including a straight-up win as a 41-point underdog to Southern California," said Blessing, who breaks down the rest of today's Week 16 schedule:

■ Tennessee at Green Bay (-12½): The Packers, who clinched the NFC North last week, will be ready to roll against the inconsistent Titans, who have nothing to play for and are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine road games. Green Bay (10-4) wants a first-round bye, so Aaron Rodgers will take care of business, then start rooting for Seattle to take down San Francisco. It's the Packers or pass.

■ Oakland at Carolina (-8½): This could be a pad-the-stats game for Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who might go off. Newton is playing much better lately, and Carolina has won three of its past four games, including an impressive victory over Atlanta. The Raiders are in a tough spot making the cross-country trip. To the Panthers' credit, they did not pack their bags and run for the bus.

■ Buffalo at Miami (-4½): The Bills should not have been allowed back across the border after their abysmal effort in a loss to the Seahawks in Toronto. Their game plans have been an atrocity. Buffalo had a solid running attack, but it's an afterthought for coach Chan Gailey. The Bills defense has been shredded too often, but it dominated the Dolphins in mid-November, allowing only 181 yards. There could be signs of life from both offenses in a loosely played game, so look over the total of 41½.

■ Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3½): The Steelers have owned the Bengals, winning five straight in the series. With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger getting snippy with offensive coordinator Todd Haley last week, maybe Pittsburgh gets fired up. Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense have been far too inconsistent. It could be tough sledding for the 'dog.

■ New England (-14½) at Jacksonville: If there's one NFL team that you would be willing to lay two touchdowns with on the road, it's the Patriots, especially a week after they lost to the 49ers. Tom Brady has 30 touchdown passes for New England, which has scored a league-leading 506 points to the Jaguars' 219. The Patriots want to apply pressure to Denver, hoping to creep back into the hunt for a first-round bye, so this might get ugly.

■ Indianapolis (-6½) at Kansas City: If the Colts (9-5) win, they are in the playoffs. Looking for extra motivation? Indianapolis wants to leave nothing to chance, having to play the Texans in the final game of the regular season. If the Colts contain the Chiefs' Jamaal Charles, who is second in the AFC with 1,230 yards rushing, they complete the Cinderella story and put on their dancing shoes.

■ New Orleans at Dallas (-3): The Cowboys squeaked out an overtime win over Pittsburgh last week, but they have no time to rest on their laurels. Dallas is 6-17 ATS in its past 23 home games. The Saints are cooking again on offense, and they're playing loose. New Orleans will put up its share of points. The question becomes, can Tony Romo and the Cowboys keep pace and not wilt under the pressure of a must-win game? It looks like the Saints and over 51½.

■ Washington (-6½) at Philadelphia: Money has steamed in on the Redskins. It appears rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III will be back to lead the offense. Motivation is clearly the reasoning behind the move - that, and the Eagles' penchant for turning over the ball. Still, laying a touchdown on the road is generally a risky proposition, so under the total (45) seems to be the safest play.

■ St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3): The Rams, 6-7-1 straight up and 9-5 ATS, have made great strides under coach Jeff Fisher. Life was rosy for a while in Tampa Bay, but after a few losses, the players are finally starting to whine about coach Greg Schiano's taskmaster approach. Don't forget how badly the Buccaneers quit at the end of last season. St. Louis is playing like it still cares, so the underdog is a lukewarm selection.

■ N.Y. Giants (-2½) at Baltimore: The Giants got blasted 34-0 at Atlanta, but I'm inclined to discount that as merely an off day. The Ravens have secured a playoff spot, but are spiraling downward. The Giants have proven they know how to come up with huge performances when needed. The steam on the Giants is an indicator that these are teams headed in opposite directions. In a must-win situation, New York is the play.

■ Minnesota at Houston (-7½): Riding running back Adrian Peterson like the thoroughbred he is, the Vikings (8-6) remain in playoff contention. Eric Dickerson's season rushing record is within Peterson's reach, but wins are the order of the day, not records. The Texans tend to get pass happy, yet I've got a funny feeling they will feed running back Arian Foster from start to finish, as he looks to make a statement against Peterson. Houston needs to ensure the road to the Super Bowl travels through Reliant Stadium.

■ Cleveland at Denver (-13): Peyton Manning has the Broncos (11-3) on a roll and in control of their destiny for a first-round bye. The Browns are continuing to play hard, and this is a big number for Manning to cover. We've watched Denver get a lead, and then Manning takes his foot off the pedal. The back-door cover could be in play for Cleveland.

■ Chicago (-5½) at Arizona: The Bears have seen their season go sideways. But they still have realistic playoff hopes, and this number is deflated a bit after the Cardinals regrouped and routed Detroit last week. The Arizona offensive line is a mess, and the Chicago defense could return to its ball-hawking ways to get the win and cover.

■ San Diego at N.Y. Jets (-2½): It's tough to pick a side in this battle of disheartened teams. Greg McElroy will start at quarterback for the Jets, a change that might awaken a slumbering offense as Mark Sanchez is finally benched. The Chargers can't be trusted. It's difficult to back either team with confidence, but if you must have action on the game, the under (37½) looks like the way to go.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL