Sharp money on Clemson over Alabama in CFP title game

Alabama will finally meet its match in Monday night’s College Football Playoff national championship game against Clemson.

At least that’s the opinion of sharp bettors in Las Vegas and multiple oddsmakers and professional handicappers contacted by the Review-Journal.

The Tigers opened as 6½-point underdogs to the Crimson Tide but the line dropped to 4½ at several sports books Friday, when a Westgate bettor placed a $60,000 wager on Clemson at plus 5.

“Clemson is the smart side on that game,” Westgate sports book director John Murray said. “I like Clemson. I think that line should be 3½ or 4. I’ve said all year that Clemson’s got the players to stick with Alabama.”

William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich and Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons also think the spread is too high and side with the Tigers.

“I think Clemson’s live,” Bogdanovich said.

Salmons has been high on Clemson all season and noted Alabama’s struggles against Georgia, which led the Tide 28-14 in the second half of the Southeastern Conference title game before losing 35-28.

“The way Georgia stood up to Alabama at the line of scrimmage, there’s no reason Clemson can’t do the same thing,” he said. “Clemson might have better athletes than Alabama at this stage.”

The Tide (14-0) and Tigers (14-0) are meeting in the CFP for the fourth straight season and the third time for the national title. The teams split the first two championship games, with Alabama beating Clemson 45-40 in 2015 and the Tigers topping the Tide 35-31 in 2016. Alabama whipped Clemson 24-6 in last season’s CFP semifinals.

“I don’t see a repeat of last year’s national semifinal. Clemson’s offense is more explosive and Alabama’s defense isn’t as good,” professional sports bettor Frank Carulli said. “I think it will go to the wire, so take the points.”

Carulli went 15-5 ATS and Goldsheet.com handicapper Bruce Marshall went 14-6 ATS and won his best bet to tie for first place in the Review-Journal College Bowl Challenge.

Marshall expects Monday’s matchup to be similar to the first two national title games between the teams, when Deshaun Watson was Clemson’s quarterback.

“It will not be like last year’s game simply because (Clemson QB) Kelly Bryant was so overmatched in that game. He was not confident throwing the ball downfield and (Alabama coach Nick) Saban knew it,” Marshall said. “Saban could not handle Watson, and (Clemson QB) Trevor Lawrence is the best freshman quarterback I’ve ever seen.

“He has moxie and he’s savvy and he can make every throw. He’s got receivers that can hurt Alabama. I really think they can throw here.”

Marshall also noted Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has won and covered nine of his last 10 bowl/CFP games while Saban is on a 3-6 spread slide in bowl/CFP games and is 0-3 ATS in his last three national title games.

“Some teams are scared to play Alabama, but Clemson has no fear,” Marshall said. “Clemson might be able to intimidate Alabama, which is now facing a team as strong as they are on defense, if not better.

“A bunch of the guys up front for Clemson bypassed the NFL draft to come back and beat Alabama. I think they can win, just like they did two years ago.”

The Gold Sheet projects a 34-31 win by Clemson. The total is 58½.

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Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.