Toledo will have its hands full with Missouri

Missouri emerged from its season opener with mixed reviews, but coach Gary Pinkel’s team showed enough positive signs.

Although the Tigers failed to cover the spread in a 38-18 victory over South Dakota State, sophomore quarterback Maty Mauk looked sharp early in leading touchdown drives on the first three possessions.

Henry Josey was a stud who is going to make plenty of plays for the Philadelphia Eagles this year, but Missouri isn’t going to miss him. That’s because Russell Hansbrough is poised for a breakout season. Hansbrough, who averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2013, rushed for 126 yards and one touchdown against the Jackrabbits.

Marcus Murphy, Hansbrough’s backup who had nine rushing scores last year, is equally dynamic. Murphy had 205 all-purpose yards on 17 touches last week.

Mauk, 5-1 in six career starts, has the ability and speed to break off a big run on any given scramble.

Missouri’s offense is going to be every bit as good in 2014 as it was last year, when it shocked the Southeastern Conference to win 12 games and take the Eastern Division.

Since 2007, the Tigers have thrived in the role of road favorites, posting a 12-3 record against the spread in 15 such situations, including a 3-0 ATS ledger last season. On the flip side, Toledo is 1-3 ATS in four games as a home underdog dating to 2010.

Rockets quarterback Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, was terrific in a 54-20 win over New Hampshire last week. But Toledo is taking a major step up in class and will have its hands full today with Missouri’s playmakers.

I made the Tigers 9-point favorites in this spot, so let’s take advantage of a bad number (-3½).

Three more plays for today (home team in CAPS):

• STANFORD (-2½) over Southern California — When a spread is 3 or less, I think the straight-up stats are more important than ATS numbers. With that said, let’s take note of Stanford’s 28-1 record in its past 29 home games. During coach David Shaw’s tenure, the Cardinal has won 21 of 22 home contests, with the only defeat coming against Oregon in 2011.

I think we have the edge at the quarterback position and in the head-coaching department in this matchup. USC’s Cody Kessler played well against Fresno State last week, but he had a “toe procedure” on Tuesday and could be dealing with soreness today. Whatever the case, I prefer Stanford’s Kevin Hogan. Look for the Cardinal to take care of business behind a solid defense and big plays from Hogan and explosive wide receiver Ty Montgomery.

• Michigan State (+13) over OREGON — The Spartans have covered the number in eight consecutive games as underdogs, winning outright five times. Going back further, coach Mark Dantonio’s team has cashed tickets at a 10-1 ATS clip in its past 11 ‘dog situations.

The recipe for beating Oregon and slowing its fast-paced offense is a salty defense and a strong running game. Michigan State has just that with legitimate All-American candidates on defense and a running back in Jeremy Langford, who rushed for 1,422 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2013. I love backing quality teams as double-digit underdogs, especially when a team has an elite quarterback. Connor Cook has proven to be that, posting a 26-to-7 career touchdown-to-interception ratio.

• East Carolina (+16½) over SOUTH CAROLINA — This is a vintage lookahead situation for South Carolina with Georgia on deck next weekend. Following a 52-28 loss to Texas A&M, the Gamecocks will be in must-win mode against the Bulldogs, but they had better keep their focus on East Carolina. The Pirates won 10 games last year, including 55-31 at North Carolina and 42-28 at North Carolina State.

East Carolina quarterback Shane Carden has 59 career touchdown passes compared to only 20 interceptions, and he’s poised to overtake David Garrard as the school’s all-time leader in passing yards later this season. Carden has an elite wide receiver in Justin Hardy, who is already the Pirates’ all-time leader in receiving yards. Obviously, South Carolina’s young secondary looks vulnerable. I made the Gamecocks 11½-point favorites.

Last week: 1-2 against the spread

Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.