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Vegas’ best-case Super Bowl scenario: Pats win, don’t cover

Less than three hours before the kickoff of Super Bowl LIII, the best-case scenario for Las Vegas sportsbooks is for the Patriots to win but not cover the spread and for the game to go under.

New England is a 2½-point favorite over the Rams at every book and the consensus total is 56, with Wynn Las Vegas at 56½ and the Stratosphere at 57½.

“Our one really bad scenario is the Patriots and over,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jay Rood said.

That’s despite the MGM taking a $2 million money-line wager to win $2.4 million Thursday on Los Angeles. Rood said MGM has taken several mid-six figure bets Sunday on both sides.

“The point spread has been mostly Patriots,” he said. “We’ve taken a few pretty good pops on the Rams on the money line.”

Caesars Entertainment, the Westgate, Boyd Gaming, CG Technology and Station Casinos also need the Rams to cover.

“It looks like we’re all Rams fans,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “The best case would be for the Patriots to win by 1 or 2 and under. The worst case would be the Patriots cover and over.

“And we’re not rooting for a safety, overtime, two-point conversion or Gronk to win the MVP.”

Big bets poured in on both sides Sunday. William Hill took a $580,000 straight wager on the Patriots (-2½) and a $300,000 straight bet on the Rams (+2½).

William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said it needs the Patriots in Nevada and the Rams back East, but is pretty even overall despite taking a $1.5 million money-line bet Friday on the Rams.

“There’s no major decision,” he said. “We’re rooting for the Pats by 1 or 2 and under.”

South Point’s liability shifted early Sunday afternoon after a bettor placed a $200,000 straight wager on the Rams (+2½).

“Ten minutes ago, we needed the Rams. Now we need the Patriots,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said at 12:30 p.m. “I don’t know what’s going to happen in the last two hours.

“We’ll probably need the under a little bit. All the parlays are going to the over.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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