With key players injured, LSU might struggle to cover vs. Troy

Louisiana State has limped to a 2-5 record against the spread in its last seven games as a double-digit home favorite. The Tigers struggled to slip past Syracuse 35-26 last week, failing to cover as 21½-point home chalk.

LSU is laying 20½ points at home Saturday to Troy, and Tigers star running back Derrius Guice is doubtful and two defensive starters — end Rashard Lawrence and safety Ed Paris — are out.

Meanwhile, the Trojans come to Baton Rouge with all of their starters healthy.

Troy is 6-2 ATS in eight games as a road underdog during Neal Brown’s three-year tenure and is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings vs. Power Five opponents. The Trojans hung tough at the other Death Valley last season, dropping a 30-24 decision to eventual national champion Clemson.

Troy returned three first-team All-Sun Belt selections from last year’s 10-3 team and has lost by more than 11 points just once in its past 18 games.

LSU’s offense is all about its ground attack, but Troy is ranked 14th in the country at defending the run.

The Tigers are averaging only 28.5 points, yet they’re favored by three touchdowns. This is entirely too many points, and don’t be shocked if Troy is threatening to pull an upset in the second half. Take the points, and if your number is 20½, buy the half-point to the key number of 21.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Vanderbilt (+9) over FLORIDA: The Gators are 0-3 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. The Commodores have a 6-1 spread record with four outright wins in their last seven as an underdog of 7½ points or more. Florida won close games the last two years, 13-6 and 9-7. The Gators have to be exhausted after winning back-to-back games on the final play, and they fall into a look-ahead situation with LSU on deck.

GEORGIA TECH (-9½) over North Carolina: The Yellow Jackets thumped Pittsburgh 35-17 last week despite losing four fumbles. Georgia Tech, which is 3-0 ATS, leads the nation in rushing and is No. 13 in the country in total defense. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 113 of 130 FBS teams in total defense and have lost 13 players to season-ending injuries, including several key contributors. North Carolina limps into Atlanta with a 1-3 record, including two home losses by double digits.

New Mexico State (+17) over ARKANSAS: This is a classic letdown spot for the Razorbacks, who are coming off a third overtime loss to Texas A&M in the last four seasons and lost their best wide receiver (Jared Cornelius) to a season-ending injury. Arkansas is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit favorite. The Aggies are 4-0 ATS this season and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of at least 7½ points. Arkansas’ run defense is ranked 99th in the country.

Iowa (+4) over MICHIGAN STATE: Iowa is the better team. I made the Hawkeyes 2½-point favorites. The Spartans have lost nine of their last 12 games. Iowa wins outright.

Last week: 3-3 against the spread

Season: 14-7-1

Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.Follow @vegasbedwards on Twitter.