Math-inclined assistant has Eagles coach Doug Pederson’s ear

“He has gone for it an awful lot. I don’t know. I think I’d go for the three points.”

— Troy Aikman, Fox Sports analyst, before fourth-and-goal on Dec. 10, 2017

BLOOMINGTON, Minn. — A 27-year-old with equations, an economics degree and, most valuably, coach Doug Pederson’s ear analyzed numbers during the most consequential drive of the Philadelphia Eagles’ season.

It was third-and-goal at the 2-yard line on Dec. 10. Quarterback Carson Wentz, unbeknownst to coaches, tore his ACL three plays earlier but remained in the game.

Time to plan.

From a Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum booth, coaching assistant Ryan Paganetti discerned whether statistics advocated the Eagles attempt a fourth-down conversion late in the third quarter, down 28-24 to the Rams. Pederson heard the results. Wentz threw a third-down incompletion.

“And right away,” Paganetti said, “Doug’s like, ‘Stay on the field. I’ve got something.’ ”

Arguably no NFL offense had more fourth-down success in 2017 than the Eagles. Paganetti, who uses math to consult Pederson in such situations, in 2014 graduated from Dartmouth College and coached prep football at a private school in Massachusetts.

On Sunday, he will oversee the Eagles’ analytical operations at U.S. Bank Stadium during the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots.

Wentz, on his final play of the season, converted fourth down with a strike to wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The score swayed the Eagles’ win over Los Angeles, which ultimately helped them secure home-field advantage through the playoffs.

Pederson has built a reputation as a fearless play-caller.

“Fearless or not, I trust my staff,” Pederson said this week. “There’s a lot of collaboration that goes on during the games. It’s not just me calling plays. There’s a lot of conversation, a lot of dialogue that’s behind the scenes that gives me confidence in some of the decisions that I make. Ultimately, they’re my calls and my decisions. I take full responsibility there. But it’s a team effort.”

Given his age, Paganetti is an unlikely member of that team.

But Chris Butler is not surprised.

Butler, 46, works as a chemistry teacher, head football coach and defensive coordinator at Belmont Hill School, an all-boy academy in Belmont, Massachusetts. He was a de facto librarian, too, when Paganetti starred there at running back.

Butler said Paganetti would borrow from a football book collection in his classroom. Paganetti lost one book, “Coaching Football’s 46 Defense.” So the teen purchased Butler a new one and gifted him a different book on the same subject.

Paganetti continued his education at Dartmouth, where injuries derailed his football career. While a student in 2012, he began his first of three seasons coaching on Butler’s staff. Attending practices and games required a two-hour drive from Hanover, New Hampshire.

Once there, he quickly made an impact.

Mindful of a player’s skill set rather than body type, Paganetti would insert an undersized defensive back at defensive end in certain situations. He effectively introduced exotic schemes to the punt block team. He devoted individual attention to student-athletes who joined the team from other sports.

And entrusted by Butler, Paganetti stood beside the head coach during games, using statistics to assist with game management.

“The thing that I really valued with Ryan,” Butler said, “is that even at a young age, he wasn’t afraid to disagree with me or say, ‘Hey, in this situation we should be doing A, B and C.’ That’s great to have on the sideline when you can get that other voice, especially in high school. We’re not dealing with the same volumes of data as they do in the NFL. But Ryan was just great in terms of situational stuff. …

“I’m a pretty conservative coach. He was far more aggressive in certain situations, and that was helpful. … He’s a brilliant young man. Very driven. Very focused.”

Paganetti’s older brother, TJ Paganetti, is a quality control/assistant offensive line coach for the Eagles.

TJ attended Oregon when Chip Kelly was the coach there. He served as a graduate assistant before following Kelly when he became the Eagles’ coach.

Ryan Paganetti, a scouting intern for the Dallas Cowboys in the 2013 summer, joined the Eagles in March 2015 as a scout before flipping now to coaching assistant/linebackers.

This season, the Eagles converted 65.4 percent of fourth-down attempts, third-best in the NFL and first among teams with more than 15 attempts. They finished 17 of 26 overall. One of those nine failed fourth downs ended a game. On the other eight that led to an opponent drive, Philadelphia allowed no points.

Pederson is instrumental to the offense’s fourth-down success rate.

One example is communication.

Eagles coaches proactively consider whether to attempt a fourth-down conversion, their discussion beginning before a third down play — such as the Wentz incompletion preceding the Jeffery touchdown on Dec. 10 — or well prior to that. There are instances around the NFL when a head coach, indecisive on fourth down, must burn a timeout.

Their communication helps avoid that.

Another example is a culture Pederson has cultivated.

He welcomes ideas from all directions, such as a coach with thoughts regarding the run-pass-option offense that has helped key the Eagles’ postseason run or someone such as Paganetti with a shared love for football and numbers.

Jon Ferrari, the team’s director of football compliance, sits beside Paganetti during games. He possesses a strong grasp for the NFL rulebook and offers Pederson suggestions on controversial plays that can be challenged.

“He’s just incredibly respectful to all the members on his staff,” Paganetti said. “He’s always willing to listen to anything that could possibly help. There’s a significant portion of NFL coaches that are very resistant to listening to statistical tendencies or analytic things. They’re like, ‘Yeah, that’s stupid. I know how football works. I know when to punt or go for it. I don’t need this. I watch tape.’

“He just has a no-stone-unturned mentality where it’s like, ‘If anything can help, I’m going to listen to it. I might not agree with it. I might not use it. But I want to listen.”

Contact reporter Michael Gehlken at mgehlken@reviewjournal.com. Follow @GehlkenNFL on Twitter.