Handicapper sees value in 49ers

It's not easy to see anything positive in the San Francisco 49ers' offense, which ranks as the NFL's worst. Running back Frank Gore, the team's most recognizable player, has been virtually invisible.

Quarterback Alex Smith, a former No. 1 overall draft pick, has been missing with an injury.

The 49ers (2-4) have lost four in a row and look about as ugly as underdogs get. But Smith is returning to the lineup today, the defense is holding up and they are getting 3 points at home from the underachieving New Orleans Saints (2-4).

That's enough for handicapper Ted Sevransky (sportsmemo.com) to see San Francisco as an appealing play. Many bettors agree, because the line has dropped to 21/2 at some sports books.

"With Smith expected to return to the starting lineup, the situation is absolutely ideal for a Niners point-spread cover and quite possibly the outright upset," Sevransky said.

"The Niners are a tremendously undervalued team right now, by virtue of their four-game losing streak. Remember, the skid has come with Trent Dilfer behind center, not Smith. All four games came against strong defensive teams -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Seattle and the New York Giants."

The Saints, 0-4 against the spread as favorites, have won two in a row against Atlanta and Seattle. But, Sevransky said, "don't be fooled" into thinking New Orleans is back to its form of last season.

"The Saints' defense has struggled against both the run and the pass," Sevransky said. "Two weeks ago, they took advantage of a complete Seattle first-half meltdown. Last week, the Saints struggled to get past the lowly Falcons. We still haven't seen 60 minutes of solid football from the Saints, making them a very poor choice as road favorites.

"The 49ers have the type of defense that I like to support as an underdog. Even last week, against the powerful Giants attack, San Francisco held New York under 300 total yards."

Gore, third in the NFL with 1,695 yards rushing last season, is 20th in the league in rushing this season with 394 yards in six games. With more production from Gore, and the return of Smith, the outlook could brighten for the 49ers.

San Francisco has held opponents to 16 points per game at home.

"I'll support the better defense in the better spot, expecting the Niners to end their losing streak behind the improved production of an Alex Smith-led offense," said Sevransky, who offers his opinions on the rest of today's Week 8 schedule:

• Cleveland (-3) at St. Louis: We're getting the Rams as healthy as they've been all season. Quarterback Marc Bulger has had a game to work the rust out of his system. Running back Steven Jackson is expected to play, and receivers Issac Bruce, Torry Holt and Drew Bennett are expected to be on the field at the same time for the first time. Best of all for the Rams, they'll be facing the worst defense in the NFL. The Browns are truly a bottom-tier defensive club, in sharp contrast to their strong offense. That makes the Browns the strongest "over" team in the NFL right now, capable of outscoring opponents but not capable of shutting them down. Cleveland has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of its first six games. The Browns' pass rush is non-existent, sacking opposing quarterbacks only six times all season, and the secondary has been torched repeatedly, ranking 29th against the pass.

Cleveland is not 5-0-1 over the total just because of its porous defense -- its offense has been as potent as any in the league this side of the Patriots and Colts. Since Derek Anderson took over as the starting quarterback in Week 2, the Browns have averaged 32 points per game. Anderson has been finding playmakers Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow open downfield on a consistent basis, and he should have starting running back Jamal Lewis back in the lineup. Look for a shootout from start to finish in what should be one of the weekend's wildest games. Take this over the total of 45.

• Detroit at Chicago (-5): The Bears are a one-dimensional team without a running game and a limited defense. But quarterback Brian Griese is playing well and should be able to exploit a bad Lions secondary. Chicago is 0-for-4 as a favorite this season. I lean over the total of 451/2.

• Indianapolis (-7) at Carolina: It's hard to picture the Panthers trading points with the Colts, whether it's David Carr or Vinny Testaverde at quarterback for Carolina. The Panthers' defense has been surprisingly pedestrian. I'll take Indianapolis.

• New York Giants (-10) vs. Miami at London: This is a really hard game. The spot could not be worse for the Giants after reeling off five consecutive victories and before a bye week. If the Giants are distracted, even the hapless Dolphins could surprise. I'll go with Miami.

• Oakland at Tennessee (-7): The Raiders' offense has gone south since Daunte Culpepper took over as the starting quarterback following Josh McCown's injury. Culpepper's statistics are mediocre, not awful, but if you've watched the Raiders play in any of his three starts, you've seen an offense that can't move the football when the running game isn't leading the way. The Raiders have managed only two offensive touchdowns in their last two games because they've been held to 43 and 55 rushing yards. The Raiders' running game is not likely to spring to life this week at Tennessee. It's an early start time for a West Coast team, always bad news for the sleepy offense. The Titans have held all six of their opponents under 100 rushing yards, giving up less than 60 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee's defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Raiders are not capable of exploiting that weakness.

Titans quarterback Vince Young is less than 100 percent, unable to run out of the pocket the way he normally does because of a quadriceps injury. Look for another barrage of field goals in this game, but few touchdowns, keeping it well under the total of 40.

• Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota: The Eagles are 2-4, yet somehow, public perception has them installed as road favorites in Minnesota. This Philadelphia team is a shell of the squad that Jeff Garcia led to the playoffs last season. The Eagles' offense isn't doing anything well. With the exception of a 56-point outburst against the Lions, coach Andy Reid's squad has scored 16 points or fewer in the other five games. Donovan McNabb is struggling to develop any sort of chemistry with his receiving corps and is a shell of the quarterback he was before all the injuries. Philadelphia ranks 30th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage, cashing in on only six of 20 red-zone tries.

There's no question that Vikings coach Brad Childress, a former Eagles offensive coordinator, has intimate knowledge of the Eagles' offensive weaknesses and how best to exploit them. It looks as if Kelly Holcomb is going to get the start at quarterback for Minnesota, replacing the injured and ineffective Tarvaris Jackson. Holcomb is a notch or two better than Jackson. Childress took an enormous amount of criticism last week for failing to utilize the league's most exciting rookie, running back Adrian Peterson. Look for that criticism to result in more touches for Peterson this week, as he carries the Vikings to victory.

• Pittsburgh (-31/2) at Cincinnati: The Steelers have not won on the road since the season opener at Cleveland. The Bengals saved their season with a second-half comeback against the Jets last week. All the momentum is with the home underdog, so take the points.

• Buffalo at New York Jets (-21/2): I'll take this over the total (371/2). The abysmal Jets defense has not stopped anyone. But quarterback Chad Pennington is playing for his job. Put those factors together and you can make a case for a high-scoring game at the Meadowlands.

• Houston at San Diego (-9): The Texans' defense has no chance of shutting down Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson. But Houston is capable of throwing the football. This should go over the total (45).

• Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (-31/2): Quinn Gray, the Jaguars' starting quarterback, made the roster out of college as an undrafted free-agent wide receiver. He's not a capable NFL quarterback. The Jaguars really miss Byron Leftwich now. Look for the Buccaneers to bounce back.

• Washington at New England (-161/2): I don't know what to recommend. The Patriots have put up incredible offensive numbers against one weak defense after the next. They face a real defense here, as the Redskins have four first-round picks in the secondary. If Tom Brady and the Patriots can put up five touchdowns again this week, they deserve all the accolades they get.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.