Some bets are off as Patriots QB Brady faces suspension

Ahelicopter swooped in, Tom Brady needed a soft place to land, and he found it in Salem, Mass. Friendly fans cheered him and chuckled at his lame jokes.

The New England Patriots quarterback knows how to pump up a crowd, and he probably knows how to coerce equipment guys into deflating footballs. There is a real chance he will be doing neither when the NFL regular season opens Sept. 10.

Brady faces a possible suspension for his role in the Deflate-gate controversy that triggered an uproar before the Super Bowl. There are some carnival barkers in the media calling for a suspension of eight games to a year.

“If he gets suspended, it can’t be more than a game or two,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “If I had to bet yes or no, I would bet yes. But I don’t think it will be a lengthy suspension. One or two games max.”

One game makes a significant statement, because it’s the Pittsburgh-New England showcase game to kick off the season, and forcing Brady to miss it would be a big deal. The line on the game is now off the board at most Las Vegas books.

When the line opened April 21, the Patriots were 6-point favorites over the Steelers. It was likely to close at 6½ or 7 with Brady on the field. It’s likely to be closer to pick’em if Brady is banned and replaced by second-year backup Jimmy Garoppolo. CG Technology books have split the difference and reposted the game at Patriots minus-3.

On the first Thursday in May, Brady arrived via helicopter for a previously arranged speaking date at Salem State University. His handpicked stooge for the host was Jim Gray, a master of awkward interviews.

Brady is getting bashed in the media, so Gray gently broached the topic in front of the quarterback’s adoring fans in Salem, where this whole thing is viewed as a witch trial.

Asked by Gray if the Patriots’ victory over Seattle in the Super Bowl was tainted, Brady said, “Absolutely not.”

He said he plans to explain his role in Deflate-gate “hopefully soon.” And soon after that, the NFL Network feed was cut off and the drama was done for the night.

Based on the Wells report — a 243-page play-by-play of the investigation — Brady probably ordered his hapless accomplices (locker room attendant Jim McNally and equipment assistant John Jastremski) to deflate the Patriots’ footballs before the AFC Championship Game in mid-January. He probably did the same before other games, too.

Jastremski and McNally cooperated with Ted Wells’ investigation and could be punished as fall guys. Brady did not cooperate, has seemed to lie about everything and should be punished.

The decision will be made by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, who has screwed up several cases and has less credibility than Judge Judy.

“So many people think the Patriots get away with things, Goodell might be forced to do something he doesn’t want to do,” Bogdanovich said.

Not being a Patriots hater or Brady basher, I believe a one-game suspension is enough. Brady faces a potential six-figure fine, too. Unless he steps forward soon with a reasonable explanation, his polished image and legacy as a four-time Super Bowl champion will be somewhat tarnished. He is doubtful to be exonerated in the court of public opinion. Even if he apologizes and confesses, he can’t win at this point.

“I guess the lying is the bad part,” Bogdanovich said. “I think the lying and trying to cover it up is where he gets in trouble.”

Wagering on the Steelers-Patriots game has been suspended at William Hill books, where New England remains the 5-2 favorite to repeat as AFC champion and is getting 7-1 odds to win another Super Bowl. At the Westgate Las Vegas, the Patriots’ regular-season win total is still posted, and a bettor hit it under 10½ for the limit of $3,000.

“People were coming in bunches to bet against the Patriots, so we had to open a ‘Bet Against The Patriots Only’ window,” Westgate book director Jay Kornegay said jokingly.

The media coverage of Deflate-gate, Bogdanovich said, has been “tremendously overblown.” It’s not the Watergate scandal of the sports world and not even comparable to former NBA referee Tim Donaghy compromising the integrity of games. The fascination is catching Brady cheating and lying. The Patriots’ Super Bowls are not tainted, in my judgment.

Brady completed 23 of 35 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns with one interception in a 45-7 rout of the Indianapolis Colts. Two weeks later, using fully inflated footballs against a stronger Seattle Seahawks defense, Brady completed 37 of 50 passes for 328 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions in a 28-24 win.

“I can’t imagine it has too much of an impact on the game,” Bogdanovich said, regarding a little football deflation. “Obviously, Brady thinks there is an edge. In every sport, everybody tries to get a little competitive edge.”

Brady and the Patriots are advantage gamblers who got busted, but there’s no taking back what they won and Brady should pay the price by sitting out one game in September.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.