Turner, Falcons on upswing

For most of his brief career, Michael Turner was running in the shadow of the NFL's top running back, LaDainian Tomlinson.

Turner left the San Diego Chargers as a free agent after last season, and the Atlanta Falcons are not hiding his talents. Turner is the NFL's leading rusher with 543 yards, and the Falcons are off to a flying start at 3-2.

Vegas Insider handicapper Mark Franco said Atlanta is his best bet today as a 21/2-point home underdog to the Chicago Bears.

The Falcons, one year removed from the disappointing Michael Vick era, are rebuilding with Turner, rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and first-year coach Mike Smith.

"Turner has proven to be a very wise acquisition for Atlanta," said Franco (francosports.com). "The offensive line is playing great football, opening up holes for the running game and giving Ryan time to look off to second and third receivers.

"Hard work by Smith and Ryan has turned things around for the Falcons early in the season. Every time I watch Ryan, he does not look like a rookie."

Turner, who has six touchdowns, will be facing a Chicago defense that ranks eighth in the league, including fourth against the run while allowing 74.2 yards per game.

The Bears also are 3-2 and getting encouraging quarterback play from young Kyle Orton. He could feel pressure from Atlanta defensive end John Abraham, who leads the league in sacks with seven.

"The Falcons are using a 3-3-5 defensive alignment on third downs that is confusing offenses. The defense is covering downfield and getting pressure on the QBs," Franco said. "Abraham also has been a monster stopping the run."

Franco pointed out the Falcons own the first quarter by outscoring opponents 48-14. The defense has shut down opposing rushing attacks in the first quarter, allowing a total of 52 yards to Detroit, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Carolina and Green Bay.

"The Falcons may be the most improved team in the NFC, and I think the Bears are overrated," said Franco, who is 18-7 and in the top 10 in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest standings.

Franco breaks down the rest of today's Week 6 schedule:

• Oakland at New Orleans (-7): The Raiders are a disorganized franchise, to say the least, and new coach Tom Cable already is on the hot seat, and he has yet to coach a game. Oakland has covered the spread in its first two road games but is 1-7 ATS versus NFC opponents. The Saints are off a Monday night loss where turnovers and missed field goals were major problems. I'm not sure how the Raiders will react, so the way to go is with New Orleans.

• Baltimore at Indianapolis (-4): The Colts are off one of the luckiest wins they've had in years and would be winless if not for late comebacks against the Vikings and Texans. Consistency on the offensive and defensive lines is a problem for Indianapolis. Baltimore's defense is playing extremely well, and the Ravens run the ball for 154 yards per game. This one stays close, so take the Ravens and the points.

• Cincinnati at New York Jets (-9): The bad news for the Bengals is quarterback Carson Palmer is not expected to start because of a sore throwing elbow. Jets coach Eric Mangini took the handcuffs off Brett Favre, and the offense responded by rolling over the Cardinals 56-35 two weeks ago. The Jets are 6-0 ATS off a bye, and I'll back them in this spot.

• Carolina at Tampa Bay (-11/2): After shutting out Kansas City last week, the Panthers rank third in the league in scoring defense and fourth in yards allowed. Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia gets the start but might be rusty. Tampa Bay's defense takes chances and can be exposed for big plays. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in this series. I like the Panthers to play better defense, create more big offensive plays and get the road win.

• Detroit at Minnesota (-13): The Lions became the NFL's worst team, in my opinion, after getting crushed 34-7 by the Bears last week. They play no defense, and the talent they have on offense seems to be wasted. The Vikings, off a big Monday night win at New Orleans, should put up enough points behind a monster day from Adrian Peterson to get the cover.

• Miami at Houston (-3): The Dolphins are for real after two big wins against the Patriots and Chargers. Chad Pennington is completing 67 percent of his passes, and running back Ronnie Brown is playing like a star. The Miami defense also has played well. Texans coach Gary Kubiak finally has the offense he envisioned, with two healthy running backs in veteran Ahman Green and rookie Steve Slaton to complement the passing game. It's the Houston defense that has been the problem, and that should continue. I have a slight lean to the Dolphins.

• St. Louis at Washington (-13): I clearly was wrong at the start of the season about the Redskins. They have played great since the Giants beat them up in Week 1. Washington has only one turnover, and that came on special teams. The Rams are 3-13 against the spread as underdogs and have lost by an average of 26 points per game this season. I can't make a real case for taking the points, but this also could be a letdown spot for the Redskins.

• Jacksonville at Denver (-31/2): The Jaguars, 1-4 against the spread, have been disappointing on defense, and their offense has been mediocre. The Broncos, 2-8 ATS off a home win, have played over the total in four of five games this season. Jacksonville is 11-2 over the total in its past 13 on the road, and Denver is 20-6 over in its past 26. Look over the total (481/2).

• Philadelphia (-5) at San Francisco: The Eagles can drive you crazy by looking good and bad in the same game. Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS off a division game but will be without running back Brian Westbrook and wideout Reggie Brown. San Francisco is an inconsistent team that is weak on defense. I'm not sure what to expect from the 49ers in their second straight home game.

• Dallas (-5) at Arizona: I like the Cardinals to rise to the occasion versus the Cowboys. One of the keys is the Arizona offense can and will exploit the Dallas defense. The Cardinals have the league's fifth-ranked offense, and the Cowboys are ranked third. Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt is 7-3 ATS at home and 2-0 as a home underdog. I expect to see plenty of offense with both teams throwing the ball a lot, so I like Arizona and over the total (51).

• Green Bay at Seattle (-1): This is the most important game of the season for Seattle (1-3). The Seahawks' defense has question marks, and the Packers' defense is banged up. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a sore shoulder, and Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck most likely will not start because of a sore knee. I'm still taking the desperate team in Seattle.

• New England at San Diego (-51/2): The Patriots stayed on the West Coast after playing in San Francisco last week, but I'm not sure how much that will help them prepare for the motivated Chargers. LaDainian Tomlinson is off to a slow start, yet the Patriots might be just what he needs to get rolling as he has averaged 117 yards per game with seven touchdowns in five regular-season games against New England.

The Patriots are 15-5 against the spread on the road. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 at home. This one is tough to call, but I lean to the Chargers.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.