Thursday, February 27, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Poll finds support for more cuts

60 percent favors combination of tax hikes, program trims

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Gov. Kenny Guinn contends he has cut all he can in state government and it's time to raise taxes by $1.1 billion over the next two years. But a recent poll by the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce suggests that though the public is open to more taxes, it also wants to see more budget cuts.

The poll of Clark County likely voters showed that 91 percent agrees the state's budget shortfall is serious. And when asked to point the finger of responsibility, poll respondents blamed government spending more than any other factor for the budget woes. The state's growth, the recession and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were ranked behind spending.

Though 37 percent believes government spending is responsible for the shortfall, a smaller percentage says cuts alone will fix the problem. Twenty-four percent sees cutting government programs and services as the solution. Sixteen percent agrees tax increases are needed. And 60 percent favors a combination of both.

Only 9 percent believes the budget shortfall isn't serious. More than half, 51 percent, sees the shortfall as "very serious" and 40 percent agrees that it's "fairly serious."

"There's a real recognition on the part of Clark County voters that there is a serious issue facing the state," Chamber President Kara Kelley said Tuesday. "Had we taken the poll six weeks earlier, those numbers wouldn't be so high. I'm pretty amazed.

"The fact that more than half are willing to accept a combination of cuts and taxes ... shows the legislators that the voting public is acknowledging the issue and is ready for the solution to occur," she said.

The fact that 60 percent advocates such an approach means the legislators need to look at making further cuts, even beyond those previously made by Guinn, Kelley said.

Guinn says he needs $700 million in new revenue just to keep up with basic education and other needs over the next two years.

As other polls have shown, Clark County residents want gaming and big business to pay more and want to protect small business and themselves.

Of the 56 percent supporting an increase in several taxes, 90 percent favors raising taxes on gaming, 85 percent favors raising taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, 65 percent would support raising the business license tax, and 66 percent would support raising the business filing fees in the secretary of state's office. Only 36 percent wants to see property taxes increased.

The poll, conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1, was released first in the organization's monthly newsletter, the Business Voice. The entire poll then was provided to the Review-Journal.

At that point, the survey was weighted toward registered Republicans. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Clark County 44 percent to 38 percent, yet the poll surveyed 10 percent more Republicans than Democrats.

The numbers were recalculated by the chamber Wednesday to mirror party registration in the county. To do that, 101 Republican responses were eliminated at random from the poll.

The final breakdown of 436 probable voters was 45 percent Democrat and 33 percent Republican. The rest were nonpartisan or belonged to minor parties. The recalculation changed the results only slightly from the 537 people originally polled.

"The purpose of this poll was to see what moved voters, (and) what arguments made people change their minds," Kelley said.

The chamber's pollsters asked follow-up questions of the 24 percent of respondents who wanted only to cut government programs. For example, would those people change their minds if they knew cuts would mean reductions in Medicare, less money for textbooks in schools and fewer police officers?

Sixty-one percent of the subgroup said that would not sway them. Those could be bad numbers for Guinn, who contends people will support his $1.1 billion tax increase once they understand what cuts will be needed if taxes aren't raised.

The chamber opposes Guinn's proposed gross receipts tax of 0.25 percent, which exempts the first $450,000 of revenue earned by businesses. The poll showed voters were split on the tax, which is the most contested one on the table.

Testing the degree of their support, the chamber found that more than half who supported the gross receipts tax changed their mind if they knew it was to be paid even if the business incurred a loss. Those polled also tended to withdraw their support when told it was a "hidden tax" that consumers ultimately would pay through higher prices on groceries, prescription drugs and health care.

Kelley said another poll will be done during the legislative session.

The poll also asked how money should be spent.

More than half those asked wanted to see more money go to K-12 education, health care, law enforcement and prescription drugs for seniors. But only 30 percent wanted to increase spending for higher education.

Those polled also were asked who they trusted in the tax debate. It showed 65 percent trusts Guinn, and the casinos are trusted by 34 percent. Parents and small businesses are trusted by 87 percent and 88 percent respectively. Labor unions are trusted by 40 percent. Teachers are trusted by 83 percent, yet their union is trusted by 57 percent.

Legislators, no matter what their party, are viewed in a similar light, with Democrats trusted by 52 percent and Republicans by 51 percent.

Kelley concluded that if a tax plan backed by parents and small businesses emerges from the Legislature, because of their credibility, that plan has better odds of passing.