Wednesday, June 23, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: Kerry poll numbers improve

National numbers give Nevada backers of Massachusetts senator reason to cheer

A chief strategist for John Kerry's campaign said Tuesday that the political winds of change in Nevada have shifted toward the Democratic presidential candidate.

Mark Mellman, a pollster retained by the Kerry campaign, said Kerry's lead in several national polls shows his candidate to be in "extraordinary position" with 131 days left until the election, especially in 17 battleground states.

"There are national issues and there are local issues, and nationally when people say they think (President) Bush misled the American people on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, that reinforces the view people in Nevada have about Yucca Mountain," Mellman said in a telephone interview after a conference call.

Kerry was seen as more honest and trustworthy than Bush, 52 percent to 39 percent, in an ABC News/Washington Post poll completed Sunday.

Bush won Nevada in 2000 by less than 4 percentage points or about 21,500 votes. While a candidate that year, he issued a statement promising to base any decision on a national nuclear waste repository on "sound science, not politics." Shortly after taking office, his administration began the steps to put the waste at Yucca Mountain, 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas. Democrats have derided his "sound science" comment ever since, noting he approved the site one day after it was recommended by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham.

The Bush administration and campaign officials have said Bush indeed based his decision on science and note that the issue will be examined in court and before the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

During the conference call, Mellman highlighted several national polls, including the ABC News/Washington Post poll, which has Kerry leading Bush by 4 points among registered voters.

The poll shows the country trending away from Bush, with exactly 50 percent of Americans approving the way Bush is managing the war on terrorism, down 13 percentage points since April.

Two months ago, Bush led Kerry by 21 points in the same poll when voters were asked which man they trusted to deal with the terrorist threat. The poll shows 48 percent now favor Kerry to 47 percent favoring Bush.

Mellman cited similar movement toward Kerry from late April to early June as evidenced in the results of six other national polls, including surveys done by National Public Radio and CNN/Gallup/USA Today.

"This is historically unprecedented," Mellman said. "In the last 50 years, no challenger has led the incumbent at this stage of the race. In fact, at this stage the incumbent has had a double-digit lead."

"Bush is just extra feeble at this stage," he added.

Tracey Schmitt, Bush-Cheney spokeswoman, said the campaign has anticipated a tight race and had detailed those expectations in memos earlier this year.

"We always said that we expected this race to be just as close as 2000," Schmitt said.

She said Kerry would be better served remedying "his lack of plans" than on touting poll numbers at this stage in the election.

Mellman did not discuss any Nevada-specific numbers Tuesday.

A poll conducted for the Review-Journal in mid-March showed Bush with an 11-point advantage in Nevada, with 9 percent undecided and 4 percent for Independent candidate Ralph Nader.

Nevada Kerry campaign operatives said although they had no polling in the state to suggest the race tightening here, they have anecdotal reasons to believe the tide is turning.

"We're doing better here than John Kerry expected to, frankly," said Sean Smith, Kerry's Nevada spokesman. "The Republicans keep sending their highest officials out here and I think that's a telling sign that Nevada is trending toward Kerry right now."

Bush spoke at a campaign event in Reno last week, and Vice President Dick Cheney spoke Monday at a campaign event in Henderson. White House political adviser Karl Rove was in Las Vegas and Reno on June 12.

The Bush campaign in Nevada referred questions about the state to Schmitt.

Schmitt said two numbers in the poll, including a question about Iraq show Americans do support Bush in greater numbers than they do Kerry.

Bush was more trusted than Kerry on Iraq, 50 percent to 45 percent, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Democrats in Nevada believe Kerry will continue to get a bounce in this state in the coming weeks. Michael Moore's film "Fahrenheit 9/11," which is critical of the Bush administration's war on terrorism, opens in Las Vegas this weekend and is being tied to several events. President Clinton will be in Las Vegas on Sunday to raise money for the state party.

The Washington Post contributed to this report.