Sunday, March 21, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Poll numbers hint at Reid landslide

Democrat Ziser faces name recognition troubles in pursuit of U.S. Senate seat

CORRECTION -- 3/22/04
Senate candidate Richard ZiserŐs political party was incorrect in a headline in Sunday's Review-Journal. He is a Republican.

Sen. Harry Reid may have won his last race by just 428 votes, but he's out to a decisive lead in this year's re-election campaign, according to a Review-Journal poll.

If the election were held today, 61 percent of those surveyed would vote for Reid, the Democrat, compared to 26 percent for Republican Richard Ziser.

"Sixty-one percent is a landslide for Harry Reid," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., the Washington, D.C., firm that conducted the telephone poll last Monday through Wednesday.

The poll of 625 registered voters statewide also showed that few Nevadans even know who Ziser is, despite his leadership of two successful statewide ballot initiatives to ban gay marriage.

Seventy-six percent of voters did not recognize Ziser's name. Of those who did, just 8 percent had a favorable opinion of him. By contrast, 96 percent recognized Reid's name, and 53 percent had a favorable opinion of him. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Obviously, the election isn't today, and we haven't been out there campaigning on the issues," Ziser said.

Reid has completely locked in his Democratic base and is attracting 33 percent of Republicans, according to the poll.

"At this point in the race, a lot of these numbers are meaningless," said Reid's campaign manager, Sean Sinclair. "I will absolutely guarantee you these numbers will tighten up."

Reid was out of the state fund raising to meet his goal of $10 million and was unavailable to comment.

Ziser said as the election draws nearer, the numbers will change.

"No one in this state believes Harry Reid will carry that many Republicans," Ziser said.

Political observers say Reid's $6 million-plus war chest, coupled with his position as the Senate's assistant democratic leader, make him almost a lock for re-election.

"I don't think that there is any compelling reason to make a change in the U.S. Senate," said Republican political consultant Sig Rogich. "And I think Nevadans as a whole are going to be very reluctant to give up that seniority and that position of power for no apparent reason."

Eric Herzik, interim dean of the College of Liberal Arts at the University of Nevada, Reno, said Ziser can't win.

"Ziser's in so much trouble, you're going to see a lot of big name registered Republicans openly embracing Reid," said Herzik, a registered Republican.

Rogich stopped just shy of an official endorsement of Reid but said the senator's work has made him a good leader for Nevada.

"The senator's been in play on virtually every major issue in Nevada in the leadership capacity, unlike anything I've ever seen from any Nevada senator in recent memory," said Rogich, a close friend of the Bush family and former ambassador to Iceland during the Reagan administration. "I just think that's the reason you're seeing (poll) numbers like that."

Herzik said Ziser will have trouble in Northern Nevada, which despite a 60-40 registration edge for Republicans, tends not to support "moral conservatives," he said.

"And Ziser's not going to make the inroads he needs in Clark County to offset what he loses up north," Herzik said.

Coker said that unless Ziser can increase his name recognition, "you're never going to see any kind of competitive race."

Steve Wark, Ziser's campaign manager, said Ziser chose to spend his initial money on grass-roots efforts and voter database efforts instead of name recognition.

"The poll is as much a reflection of name ID to this day as anything," Wark said. "When you have rural Nevada voting for Harry Reid, you know that's not the sentiment of rural Nevada."

The poll shows Reid leading Ziser by 13 points in rural Nevada, 45 percent to 32 percent.

"The Ziser campaign could have spent its first $250,000, and done a TV show and he'd have name ID a mile wide," Wark said. "We're doing exactly what we need to do."