Krystle Sands, a high-rise project on the Strip, was the first of the proposed luxury towers in town that failed for financial reasons. An analyst says many other high-rise projects could suffer a similar fate. Photo by K.M. Cannon.

Less than half -- and possibly as few as 30 percent -- of the 100 or so high-rise condominium towers proposed throughout Las Vegas Valley will actually get built, a Wall Street analyst said Thursday, reinforcing what local experts have been saying for a year.

If all of the luxury condo projects that have been announced are built, there would be some 37,000 units on the market, Marc Falcone of Deutsche Bank said in a report Thursday on the Las Vegas gaming and condo market.

Park Towers and Turnberry Place established the demand for luxury condo living in Las Vegas when they opened about four years ago. Several new projects are under construction, including Metropolis, SoHo Lofts and Panorama, and about eight others have begun site work.

"Ultimately, we believe that many of these projects may not be developed," Falcone said. "In fact, we would anticipate that no more than 50 percent will be built, although we believe the number could be closer to 30 (percent) to 40 percent."

He noted that not all of the 55 luxury high-rise projects in Las Vegas are true condominiums. Some, such as The Residences at MGM, Platinum and Majestic, are sold as condo-hotels or with a time-share component.

Condo-hotels are a relatively new concept whereby units are typically furnished and sold to individual buyers who then have the option of placing their units in a rental pool for the transient market. Intrawest Corp. was the first to introduce the concept, with the Viera condos at Lake Las Vegas.

Richard Lee, public relations director for First American Title Co. of Nevada, said he's always being asked how many high-rise condo units will be delivered in Las Vegas and his pat answer is that he doesn't know.

"And nobody knows for sure. When you look at how many units are coming out this year, only two or three projects are closing deals," Lee said. "Everybody asks how many (units) are going to sell. The more accurate question is when we're going to sell them, over what period of time. I think we'll sell 50 (percent) to 75 percent of what's been announced. It's just a matter of when."

With one project, Krystle Sands, already dead and others in trouble or uncertain, Las Vegas could experience huge demand for about 3,000 units on or around the Strip from people who fell out of preconstruction reservation status, said Bruce Hiatt, owner and broker of Luxury Realty Group in Las Vegas.

"We might be heading for the perfect bullish condo storm," he said. "Turnberry Towers sold out (its first tower) in hours, which is some evidence of this situation. Further, there are no residential tower projects about to announce new sales in the near term that are on the Strip or very close to the Strip. Correct me if I'm wrong. That could create a gap of six to 12 months of no new condos being delivered in 2007, assuming Sky (Las Vegas), Turnberry and Allure are delivered in 2006 as planned. That scenario could create a red-hot seller's market in that time period."

Stan Kates, who has marketed more than 55,000 luxury condo units across the country and in Toronto, said he thinks all of the projects in Las Vegas will get built over the next five to 10 years, though not necessarily by the current owners.

He said the successful projects will be defined by skill and financial capability of the people who own them.

"Some of the projects will (be built) and some, the owners will lose them," Kates said. "I've dealt with probably a dozen of the current projects in Las Vegas and some are owned by just a hair. They control the land, but don't know what to do with it. They'll bring in a joint venture partner or flip the land, or they'll lose the land and somebody else will pick it up. There's no question in my mind that Vegas has room for 40,000 to 50,000 units."

Lee said he doesn't think Las Vegas will even come close to meeting demand for the next three to four years.

"How deep is the interest (from international investors) in the world to own a piece of Las Vegas? They're buying these units like they buy commodities," he said.

The two most important factors behind the urbanization of Las Vegas are the dwindling supply of developable land in the valley, particularly near the Strip, and escalating land prices that are forcing developers to get the most bang for their buck on any given footprint, Falcone said.

"Clearly, the trend of building up, not out, could have other implications on the big picture for Las Vegas," he said.